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Old 03-03-2014, 09:04 PM   #61
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The stakes are much higher as this could escalate exponentially. I doubt it will since a hawk is not in da house, but the potential is always there.
That's not how it works. It only takes one "hawk" to escalate, and one "hawk" can be more dangerous than two. There was no "hawk" in Ukraine, but they got their escalation. There was no "hawk" in Poland in 1939, and France was hawk-free in 1940.
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Old 03-03-2014, 09:32 PM   #62
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Why? Everybody made a lot of money off that last Cold War. And the dangers were wildly overstated. But it wouldn't have been as profitable if the People had known that.


Kind of hard to overstate the dangers of global thermonuclear war in my opinion.
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Old 03-03-2014, 09:52 PM   #63
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Kind of hard to overstate the dangers of global thermonuclear war in my opinion.
The only winning move is not to play.

How about a nice game of chess?
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Old 03-03-2014, 10:02 PM   #64
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The Ukraine thing's got nothing to do with this. Bloomberg, CNBC, and other media pundits still have not figured out what forum frequenters have known for quite a few years now. It's the "Wheee" from the Oracle of New Orleans.

See this post on Friday 2/28/2014: Have you bumped up your equity allocation?.

I was off this site for a few days due to heavy involvement with audio stuff, but even if I knew about the above post, still would not be able to sell everything in time.

Anyway, I do not know if it's time to dig bomb or nuclear shelter, but how do I back out of this recently placed order of a pair of Sonus Faber Aida speakers?





Just joking. Certainly about the SF speaker order.
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Old 03-03-2014, 10:38 PM   #65
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Kind of hard to overstate the dangers of global thermonuclear war in my opinion.
Well said.
Even Russia's conventional forces are plenty potent enough to screw over the world- or at least many important parts of it.
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Old 03-04-2014, 09:57 AM   #66
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It looks like the Russian pullback from the border has relieved the financial issues for now.
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Old 03-04-2014, 10:11 AM   #67
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It looks like the Russian pullback from the border has relieved the financial issues for now.
I see the financial issues all related to Ukraine and the EU dependence upon Russian natural gas. That issue existed before the current Crimea situation, and will exist after. Unstable foreign policy from Russia is always a concern.
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Old 03-04-2014, 10:19 AM   #68
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I suspect that the only real suffering will be the Ukranian people.

There is a reason why countries like Albania, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Slovenia, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania and Poland are members of NATO. Mr. Putin has just strengthened those reasons.
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Old 03-04-2014, 10:39 AM   #69
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Looks like Putin has decided to play nice for a bit. Hopefully both sides can talk things out, perhaps Russia pays some $$ to Ukraine for a long lease (or buys outright) the bases in the Crimea, builds a land bridge to them from Russia and things smooth over.
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Old 03-04-2014, 10:40 AM   #70
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The Ukraine thing's got nothing to do with this. Bloomberg, CNBC, and other media pundits still have not figured out what forum frequenters have known for quite a few years now. It's the "Wheee" from the Oracle of New Orleans.
<snip>

I was off this site for a few days due to heavy involvement with audio stuff, but even if I knew about the above post, still would not be able to sell everything in time.

Anyway, I do not know if it's time to dig bomb or nuclear shelter, but how do I back out of this recently placed order of a pair of Sonus Faber Aida speakers?

Just joking. Certainly about the SF speaker order.
There you go, trying to hijack yet another thread with your fascination of all things audio--from strings to a pair of Sonus Faber Aida speakers.
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Old 03-04-2014, 11:15 AM   #71
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IMHO this is a pretty unique situation, with Russia having a major southern naval base there, and so many ethnic Russians. Nevertheless it is a long term loosing position for Putin and Russia no matter what option they choose, both economically and politically.

In spite of calls from some US politicians for 'action', there wont be sanctions or anything else other than some symbolic G8 (G7?) meeting posturing, freezing some mostly symbolic transactions, etc. Both sides know they are not the only ones who get to move the chess pieces here.

Even now the Russians are seeing the economic effects in their falling markets and currency. And both the other European countries and Russia see the disaster a trade war would have.

Long term this is really bad for Russia, tips their hand (heavy hand) and makes their neighbors even more wary of ties with them. There will be more long dislike of Russia in Ukraine and an even stronger desire to be allied with the west.

Short term it makes Putin vastly more popular in Russia (they like strong shirtless leaders apparently), so short term is a plus for him. But he has to stop short of disturbing the economic conditions to severely or risk tipping Russia into a deep recession.

Other than as a source for raw materials and gas and oil, Russia is not too critical to the world economy, so I doubt there will be much economic impact in the west, assuming the west and Ukraine will still keep buying Russian energy resources.

We have been in much much greater areas of differences with Russia in the past. This is pretty localized and will likely remain so.

On the other hand... It made no sense for the assassination of a minor Austrian archduke to start a world war either. So I guess when you assume that people or countries will act in their best long term interest, you have to take it everything with a hopeful grain of salt.
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The Ukraine thing's got nothing to do with this. Bloomberg, CNBC, and other media pundits still have not figured out what forum frequenters have known for quite a few years now. It's the "Wheee" from the Oracle of New Orleans.

See this post on Friday 2/28/2014: Have you bumped up your equity allocation?.

I was off this site for a few days due to heavy involvement with audio stuff, but even if I knew about the above post, still would not be able to sell everything in time.

Anyway, I do not know if it's time to dig bomb or nuclear shelter, but how do I back out of this recently placed order of a pair of Sonus Faber Aida speakers?



Just joking. Certainly about the SF speaker order.
Ha ha, i looked up those speakers and thought at first I saw $120/pr but then noticed there was a comma and 3 zeros after:

A pair of Sonus faber Aida loudspeakers cost $120,000!!

I'm doing OK but not that OK. I imagine they sound OK. Only then did I see your little note about joking. Got me!
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Old 03-04-2014, 11:23 AM   #72
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Well, when other posters talked 'bout building bomb shelters and such, I though I could sneak in a line, and it was just a line mind you, about a change in planned spending (in jest). It's the other posters who made it worse by responding to it.

Anyway, I did not buy nor sell anything (stock or speakers) and if the market holds up till close, I will be setting a new high above last Friday close when the "Wheee" decree was declared. Did she retract it or anything?
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Old 03-04-2014, 11:24 AM   #73
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Old 03-04-2014, 12:21 PM   #74
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Looks like Putin has decided to play nice for a bit.
It is the old 'two steps forward, one step back' that Mao was a proponent of.
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Old 03-04-2014, 02:09 PM   #75
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I got a text on Saturday from my roommate, asking if the land I have down in Southern VA has any buildings on it. I replied back "No. Why?"

Then I got another text talking about how the President was moved from DC and we gotta get out of this area, and how it's going to be worse than the Cuban Missile Crisis!

So, apparently, this stuff does scare some people.

Funny thing is, we went through roughly the same scenario 30-some years ago. I remember my Grandparents telling my Mom that if there was a nuclear outbreak, they were going to get me out of school, head down to that land immediately, and hole up. And that Mom could come meet us down there.

The part that nobody ever thought out though, is that if something like that happened, the roads EVERYWHERE would be jam-packed with traffic. Plus, DC is between us and that land in Southern VA, so even if it was some kind of safe haven, it's not like it would be that easy to get to.
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Old 03-04-2014, 02:21 PM   #76
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Not at all. I ignore the hysteria of the press (business, financial, "news", etc.). What passes for "news" today is noise. All press is designed to ignite the imagination, narrowly focus attention, and hopelessly distract from that which is most important. An outstandingly scathing review of the press, business and otherwise, is contained in Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Taleb.

Making optimal investment decisions based on short-term events is a fools errand, IMO.

12/17/07 Forbes interview with John Bogle:

Everyone asks your advice. What's the best investing advice you've ever received?

"It was the best advice and the earliest advice. I was working at a brokerage house one summer while in college, and one of the guys who was another runner at the firm delivering securities said, "Let me tell you all you need to know about the investment business." I said, "What's that?" He said, "Nobody knows nuthin'." That sounds cynical, but we don't know what the markets hold, certainly not in the short run. We have no idea."
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Old 03-04-2014, 02:26 PM   #77
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I got a text on Saturday from my roommate, asking if the land I have down in Southern VA has any buildings on it. I replied back "No. Why?"

Then I got another text talking about how the President was moved from DC and we gotta get out of this area, and how it's going to be worse than the Cuban Missile Crisis!

So, apparently, this stuff does scare some people.

Funny thing is, we went through roughly the same scenario 30-some years ago. I remember my Grandparents telling my Mom that if there was a nuclear outbreak, they were going to get me out of school, head down to that land immediately, and hole up. And that Mom could come meet us down there.

The part that nobody ever thought out though, is that if something like that happened, the roads EVERYWHERE would be jam-packed with traffic. Plus, DC is between us and that land in Southern VA, so even if it was some kind of safe haven, it's not like it would be that easy to get to.
And if an asteroid hits the Atlantic, southern VA might not be a good place either. It must be true because I saw it in a movie
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Old 03-04-2014, 02:28 PM   #78
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The part that nobody ever thought out though, is that if something like that happened, the roads EVERYWHERE would be jam-packed with traffic. Plus, DC is between us and that land in Southern VA, so even if it was some kind of safe haven, it's not like it would be that easy to get to.
I've certainly experienced that situation. In 2005 Hurricane Rita was bearing down on Houston and although we lived in a town north of the city we decided to go to Austin and stay with our daughter for a few days (she REALLY wanted us to come). I needed to be at work to help organize the shutdown of the offices and computer systems and the company then closed down 3 days before the storm hit.

We left at 6am the next morning and after 3 hours we had traveled 8 miles, so we turned around and came back to ride out the storm.
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Old 03-04-2014, 02:46 PM   #79
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And if an asteroid hits the Atlantic, southern VA might not be a good place either. It must be true because I saw it in a movie
I always get a kick out of the final scenes in that movie. I would love to know where Frodo and Helen Hunt Jr. managed to find a mountain that high, just miles from the beach in Virginia, where they could escape those thousand-foot tsunamis...

Actually, our family property down there is on a mountainside (sorry, should have said "South Western VA!"). 10 acres of nothing, in a little town called Holly Brook. I also have no idea what my grandparents were thinking we would live off of down there, since there's nothing on the property but a logging road, and a bullet-ridden '59 Edsel. They had a pickup truck with a camper...guess they figured we would've toughed it out in that or something.
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Old 03-04-2014, 03:10 PM   #80
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I've certainly experienced that situation. In 2005 Hurricane Rita was bearing down on Houston and although we lived in a town north of the city we decided to go to Austin and stay with our daughter for a few days (she REALLY wanted us to come). I needed to be at work to help organize the shutdown of the offices and computer systems and the company then closed down 3 days before the storm hit.

We left at 6am the next morning and after 3 hours we had traveled 8 miles, so we turned around and came back to ride out the storm.
How well I remember, luckily for me I was in Minneapolis for my job and watched the mess on TV. Was there longer than planned because travel back to the Houston area was staggered.

No I'm no worried about Ukraine & the stock market. However, I did notice both Shepard Smith (FOX) & Anderson Cooper (CNN) are now reporting from Kiev..
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