haha
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
I think the last few weeks' experiences suggest no. Many of us have turned to trying to make predictions about what happens next-like which way does the market go from here?
Much talk about austerity, cutting back spending, etc. Many of us who are not yet retired but who really wanted to retire soon are talking of delaying that.
We talk of having 10 years expenses in cash, etc. A big help if one is normal retirement age. But I am not sure if you are 38 or 42. Look at where Japan's markets are now. And, during good times many of us emphasized how robust Firecalc 4% plans were, in that they supposedly survived the Great Depression as well as the stagflationary crash of the mid-seventies.
I wrote a piece for this board way back in its early days laying out a case that what really counts is the underlying earning power of your investments, and if enough of those earnings is likely to be robust to business conditions and accessible without going to markets to sell equities. This puts an emphasis on a more stable metric, earning power, rather than the clearly fickle one of quoted prices.
This means either dividends, or interest, or flow-through entities like MLPs and royalty trusts.
All these have problems, the major one being that you do not do a very good job of analysis before buying.
I have always had some of these, and bought more during the down markets of the past 6 months. As it turns out, many were cheap but destined to get much cheaper.
I think the biggest challenge to this system is bankruptcies, and we will certainly see more of those. Huge dividend cuts are another, and as some banks for example slash dividends it becomes less stigmatizing for firms that perhaps could continue on without cuts to use this cover to proactively cut their dividend to save cash for uncertain futures.
My idea is that auto-pilot ERs are really not possible without pensions. No matter what strategy we choose, it will have it own set of risks. I know some here follow this cash flow method, I hope people will comment on how you are feeling about it now. Some members have suggested that if you don't have a pension it is easy enough to buy one. I think the turmoil that has engulfed life insurers along with most other financial firms will put this idea to rest, at least for the thoughtful.
Ha
Much talk about austerity, cutting back spending, etc. Many of us who are not yet retired but who really wanted to retire soon are talking of delaying that.
We talk of having 10 years expenses in cash, etc. A big help if one is normal retirement age. But I am not sure if you are 38 or 42. Look at where Japan's markets are now. And, during good times many of us emphasized how robust Firecalc 4% plans were, in that they supposedly survived the Great Depression as well as the stagflationary crash of the mid-seventies.
I wrote a piece for this board way back in its early days laying out a case that what really counts is the underlying earning power of your investments, and if enough of those earnings is likely to be robust to business conditions and accessible without going to markets to sell equities. This puts an emphasis on a more stable metric, earning power, rather than the clearly fickle one of quoted prices.
This means either dividends, or interest, or flow-through entities like MLPs and royalty trusts.
All these have problems, the major one being that you do not do a very good job of analysis before buying.
I have always had some of these, and bought more during the down markets of the past 6 months. As it turns out, many were cheap but destined to get much cheaper.
I think the biggest challenge to this system is bankruptcies, and we will certainly see more of those. Huge dividend cuts are another, and as some banks for example slash dividends it becomes less stigmatizing for firms that perhaps could continue on without cuts to use this cover to proactively cut their dividend to save cash for uncertain futures.
My idea is that auto-pilot ERs are really not possible without pensions. No matter what strategy we choose, it will have it own set of risks. I know some here follow this cash flow method, I hope people will comment on how you are feeling about it now. Some members have suggested that if you don't have a pension it is easy enough to buy one. I think the turmoil that has engulfed life insurers along with most other financial firms will put this idea to rest, at least for the thoughtful.
Ha