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Are we in a similar 1932-37 period?
Old 01-21-2008, 10:37 AM   #1
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Are we in a similar 1932-37 period?

Today on Bloomberg tv a woman who runs a technical stock analyst group, I think it was called, named Tamara (her name) says we are in a period just like 1932-37. I have done some net work on this, but can anyone interpret this exactly for me?:confused:
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Old 01-21-2008, 11:00 AM   #2
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could be since there was in inflationary bear market in 1937 or 1938 similar to the 1970's
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Old 01-21-2008, 11:00 AM   #3
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... but can anyone interpret this exactly for me?:confused:
Sure. You have ignored the recommendations of this forum and continued to watch yellow financial journalism TV. Your symptoms are most likely a combination of indigestion, heartburn, insomnia, semi-paranoia and the irresistible urge to post "Is the world really coming to the end?" questions on this forum.

For your own health and well being, please turn off the TV and go do something you enjoy doing.
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Old 01-21-2008, 11:11 AM   #4
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Yes we are actually. But don't discuss economic history on these boards - they like to tar and feather.
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Old 01-21-2008, 11:20 AM   #5
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Originally Posted by Orchidflower View Post
Today on Bloomberg tv a woman who runs a technical stock analyst group, I think it was called, named Tamara (her name) says we are in a period just like 1932-37. I have done some net work on this, but can anyone interpret this exactly for me?:confused:
The technicians (aka "technical analysts") believe that by studying charts they can see patterns that will predict the future, it is the market version of reading entrails. I'm with REWahoo, turn off the TV.
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Old 01-21-2008, 11:35 AM   #6
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Who the heck knows? But one think is for sure. When it's bad and when it's not so bad, in the early days it feels the same -bad.
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Old 01-21-2008, 11:46 AM   #7
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Just asking. Yeah...now I'm off to go swimming.
I won't let the yellow journalists get to me, honest. I'm sticking with my mutual funds hell or high water for now.... I did not mean that I was in a panic and freaking out by asking the question.

The original question was really a "what did she mean by that?" Somehow this question seem to have gotten lost except for a few who responded...and thanks to those people.

It was just a question, Wahoo, and nothing more. I was NOT trying to incite a riot. I seem to have upset you, sorry.
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Old 01-21-2008, 11:49 AM   #8
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I agree with what you all have said. I just wonder why they WANT it to happen so badly. The position that the media seems to take, is that somehow corporate america needs to be PUNISHED for the sub-prime stuff. And again that somehow the stock market going down IS punishing them... so they like it and actively root for it. Just what I am seeing so far.... makes NO sense to me though....
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Old 01-21-2008, 11:57 AM   #9
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The technicians (aka "technical analysts") believe that by studying charts they can see patterns that will predict the future, it is the market version of reading entrails. I'm with REWahoo, turn off the TV.
Well, if you don't follow through with believing the predictions of the future, studying the past can be fascinating and educational. It's interesting to see if today's conditions compare in any respects with those conditions existing during some past era.

Certainly we would all agree that we live in a different world, in most respects, than those investors in 1932-37. They didn't have computers, and the dollar was tied to silver, to begin with, and Wall Street has safeguards now that it didn't have in the 1920's.
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Old 01-21-2008, 12:02 PM   #10
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I agree with what you all have said. I just wonder why they WANT it to happen so badly. The position that the media seems to take, is that somehow corporate america needs to be PUNISHED for the sub-prime stuff. And again that somehow the stock market going down IS punishing them... so they like it and actively root for it. Just what I am seeing so far.... makes NO sense to me though....
Right, I agree but the public just eats this stuff up!!
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Old 01-21-2008, 12:27 PM   #11
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Today on Bloomberg tv a woman who runs a technical stock analyst group, I think it was called, named Tamara (her name) says we are in a period just like 1932-37. I have done some net work on this, but can anyone interpret this exactly for me?:confused:
Perhaps a quote from Franklin Delano Roosevelt's Inaugural Speech in March 1933 will give us a glimpse of what American society was experiencing during this time period. This quote was taken from "Devil Take The Hindmost: A History of Financial Speculation," written in 1999 by Edward Chancellor.

"...Plenty is at our doorstep, but a generous use of it languishes in the very sight of the supply. Primarily this is because rulers of the exchange of mankind's goods have failed through their own stubbornness and their own incompetence, have admitted their failure and have abdicated. Practices of the unscrupulous money changers stand indicted in the court of public opinion, rejected by the hearts of minds and men.

True, they have tried, but their efforts have been cast in the pattern of or outworn tradition. Faced by the failure of credit they have proposed only lending of more money. Stripped by the allure of profit by which to induce our people to follow false leadership, they have resorted to exhortations, pleading tearfully to restore confidence. They know only the rules of a generation of self-seekers. They have no vision, and when there is no vision the people perish.

The money changers have fled for their high seats in the temple of our civilization. We now restore that temple to ancient truths. The measure of the restoration lies in the extent to which we apply social values more noble than mere monetary profit."

Could the "unscrupulous money changers" that FDR refers to, be compared to today's credit crisis , insofar as the people who created and sold the CDOs (Collateralized Debt Obligations) to businesses around the world who probably didn't have the vaguest notion as to what they were actually purchasing?
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Old 01-21-2008, 12:35 PM   #12
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Well, if you don't follow through with believing the predictions of the future, studying the past can be fascinating and educational. It's interesting to see if today's conditions compare in any respects with those conditions existing during some past era.

Certainly we would all agree that we live in a different world, in most respects, than those investors in 1932-37. They didn't have computers, and the dollar was tied to silver, to begin with, and Wall Street has safeguards now that it didn't have in the 1920's.
I completely agree W2R. I was referring to the so-called "technical analysts" that often appear on the financial TV channels. As a group, they tend to ignore market history when it doesn't support what their charts are suggesting.

Technical Analysis - Wikipedia
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Old 01-21-2008, 12:51 PM   #13
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Yellow journalism in the media sells.
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Old 01-21-2008, 01:03 PM   #14
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Sure. You have ignored the recommendations of this forum and continued to watch yellow financial journalism TV. Your symptoms are most likely a combination of indigestion, heartburn, insomnia, semi-paranoia and the irresistible urge to post "Is the world really coming to the end?" questions on this forum.

For your own health and well being, please turn off the TV and go do something you enjoy doing.
What's next, deny the Holocaust occurred?
Who's in denial now?
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Old 01-21-2008, 01:42 PM   #15
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Hey if I can pick any year between 1932 and 1937 then I hope that a year like 1933 is on the horizon! Best year on record for the stock market in mordern history. That year the market was up more than 54%! Sure outside of wall street it was the great depression at its worse and the stock market had been pummeled for a few years by then (including a 43% loss in 1931 only) so a 54% increase in the stock market probably did not alleviate much pain, but hey I'll take the 54% anyday...
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Old 01-21-2008, 02:54 PM   #16
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Dow futures are at -600, seatbelts please..........
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Old 01-21-2008, 03:07 PM   #17
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Depending on what happens to the asian markets later tonight the dow could drop 1000 points on tuesday. Sorry but we really are in deep trouble in the financial sector. Americans are tapped out, home prices are dropping heck it looks like they are well really crashing in places. I mean the place we sold in april of 06 for 520K in NJ now are selling for 385K The same type and model in the same neighborhood, in fact it was the exact model and as well maintained as ours was. They needed to move, lucky it sold last month! But that is well over 25% lower than what someone paid for my old place.

Bottom line, the fancy dudes at morgan stanley, schabb,citigroup, and the rest of the wonderboyz are well full of you know what and up to you know what and in deep trouble holding paper that well might not be worth much.

Oh My.
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Old 01-21-2008, 03:30 PM   #18
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Depending on what happens to the asian markets later tonight the dow could drop 1000 points on tuesday. Sorry but we really are in deep trouble in the financial sector. Americans are tapped out, home prices are dropping heck it looks like they are well really crashing in places. I mean the place we sold in april of 06 for 520K in NJ now are selling for 385K The same type and model in the same neighborhood, in fact it was the exact model and as well maintained as ours was. They needed to move, lucky it sold last month! But that is well over 25% lower than what someone paid for my old place.
-1000? Bring it on.

Do you HONESTLY think that your house was really worth $520k? Real estate, just like the stock market experiences RTM (reversion to mean). Here's an illustrative exercise: Get your home price in.. lets say 1995. Then, add in a figure each year consistent with long-term home price inflation. Project out to 2007. Thats what your house is really 'worth'. Who knows, maybe $385k is overpriced
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Old 01-21-2008, 03:34 PM   #19
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Depending on what happens to the asian markets later tonight the dow could drop 1000 points on tuesday. Sorry but we really are in deep trouble in the financial sector. Americans are tapped out, home prices are dropping heck it looks like they are well really crashing in places. I mean the place we sold in april of 06 for 520K in NJ now are selling for 385K The same type and model in the same neighborhood, in fact it was the exact model and as well maintained as ours was. They needed to move, lucky it sold last month! But that is well over 25% lower than what someone paid for my old place.
Well, April of 2006 wasn't the absolute top, but it was pretty overpriced then............

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Bottom line, the fancy dudes at morgan stanley, schabb,citigroup, and the rest of the wonderboyz are well full of you know what and up to you know what and in deep trouble holding paper that well might not be worth much.Oh My.
Here's what I see playing out:

1)The markets move lower still this week.

2)The Fed's cuts rates another 50 bp

3)The market recovers on this "good news"

we go through a few more quarters steps 1,2,3 until things stabilize. I wish that Citi and Merrill had taken the WHOLE writedown loss at ONCE, instead of doing it over time............
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Old 01-21-2008, 04:08 PM   #20
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-1000? Bring it on.

Do you HONESTLY think that your house was really worth $520k? Real estate, just like the stock market experiences RTM (reversion to mean). Here's an illustrative exercise: Get your home price in.. lets say 1995. Then, add in a figure each year consistent with long-term home price inflation. Project out to 2007. Thats what your house is really 'worth'. Who knows, maybe $385k is overpriced
I HONESTLY think it was worth whatever price a willing seller, buyer and mortgage co agreed upon AT THAT POINT IN TIME.
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