Are we in or nearing the capitulation stage of bear market?

[FinanceDude]

Quote:

Originally Posted by cute fuzzy bunny So, that means he charges a little extra because he's not burdened by years of unnecessary experience and can make the absolute best choices based on todays data alone?

We've got to be near a bottom, I had two clients call me today and ask if my firm was still in business.............

[cute fuzzy bunny]

So what did you tell them?

Ten gold stars if you told them you werent, but they still had to pay their monthly dues for the rest of the year!

[FinanceDude]

Quote:

Originally Posted by cute fuzzy bunny So what did you tell them? Ten gold stars if you told them you werent, but they still had to pay their monthly dues for the rest of the year!

I told them the fact we answered the phone was a good sign.......

BTW, dues are quarterly, not monthly........

[2B]

Quote:

Originally Posted by FinanceDude BTW, dues are quarterly, not monthly........

They'd think they were paying less if you took it out monthly.

[cute fuzzy bunny]

You might want to change to monthly...it'd stink if you guys had to be bought out by the feds 3 days before the monthly checks came in...

[2B]

Quote:

Originally Posted by cute fuzzy bunny You might want to change to monthly...it'd stink if you guys had to be bought out by the feds 3 days before the monthly checks came in...

I've never heard of a FA that didn't conveniently deduct the fee from the client account.

[dex]

Another indicator might be this weekend's newspaper headlines.
If you see words like panic, depression, bear market etc it might be a sign of a bottom.

Hey,
How about "It might be a bottom if..."

[harley]

The important question in all of this is how will it effect the changeover to all digital tv? Nobody will be able to afford those converter boxes!

[ladelfina]

harley, we will be lucky not to be entertaining ourselves with hand shadows!!!

[2B]

Today was the capitulation -- if it goes up tomorrow. The S&P down 57 points sure feels like we capitulated. Unfortunately, downdrafts usually stop when something just positive enough happens that people think the worst must be over. Herd mentality then takes over and it's off to the races in the other direction.

It's fear and greed. Right now fear is winning big.

We're having this slaughter depite a growing GDP. Of course, everyone knows we're really, really, really in the worst recession since the Great Depression.

[Running_Man]

It feels to me as if we are in the opening throes of a panic. Reserve Management is withholding redemptions on their money market and breaking a buck. 3 month T bills are dropping like a rock. Gold had it's biggest one day move ever as faith in the US dollar is falling. T bill rates of 0.233 sure indicates a giant fear of lending, which by it's very nature is deflationary.

Is this all overblown by the stock market? I doubt it, this is further confirmation to me of the 70 percent drop in the BDI shipping index.

However to my way of thinking the total decline is far too meager at this point to be a bottom.

[newporttony]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Running_Man It feels to me as if we are in the opening throes of a panic. Reserve Management is withholding redemptions on their money market and breaking a buck. 3 month T bills are dropping like a rock. Gold had it's biggest one day move ever as faith in the US dollar is falling. T bill rates of 0.233 sure indicates a giant fear of lending, which by it's very nature is deflationary. Is this all overblown by the stock market? I doubt it, this is further confirmation to me of the 70 percent drop in the BDI shipping index. However to my way of thinking the total decline is far too meager at this point to be a bottom.

VIX closed above 36. That's panic.

[dex]

The VIX hit close to 48 at the end of 2002.
The only positive is that it closed above 1150.
Also take a look at the volume 9.4B today - the previous month it was 1.2B
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=^GSPC

[socca]

A few months ago (how many, I've forgotten), Bill Gross claimed in one of his monthly newsletters that the unrealized losses from the sub-prime mortgage mess and all of the financial instruments tied to these mortgages was in the trillions of dollars (again, I've forgotten how many trillions). At the time, I laughed and considered his claim absurd. However, the events of the last week make me wonder whether ol' Bill's estimate wasn't in the right ballpark. If so, then I have no idea how many financial bombs are still primed and waiting to go off deep in the bowels of our few remaining hallowed American financial institutions. We live in interesting times. I wish they were less interesting.

[Bikerdude]

PETER BERNSTEIN: And that's dangerous. But it's very hard to make the case that returns will be, say, after inflation, more than 6% to 7%.


Oh my God, 6 to 7% AFTER inflation. Bring it on!

[willowbeezer]

My vote is : dead cat bounce tomorrow. then roll over and die again...

In any rate, staying in cash for now and if the market rises and I miss the 1st 5-10% - so be it.

[SteveR]

As long as the media has nothing else to whip up into a foam, they will continue to convince folks the end is near.....after the next commercial.

That said, I don't see the bottom any time soon. Way too much debt in dark places that has not yet hit the street. Hang on....it is going to be a rough ride.

[clifp]

I think we will see Dow 20,000, and S&P 2400., and perhaps the NASDAQ will reach record highs. It is just a matter of time.

[2B]

Quote:

Originally Posted by clifp I think we will see Dow 20,000, and S&P 2400., and perhaps the NASDAQ will reach record highs. It is just a matter of time.

Please stop saying anything positive. We won't get a real turnaround until 100% of all investors slit their wrists and collapse.

The Porn Channel CNBC had their normal parade of market mover interviews. Everyone said that the market was going lower. They didn't know when it would end but they all said it wasn't over. That's a good sign.

[clifp]

Me bad

SELL, SELL, SELL. The crisis is going to get worse before it gets better, the light you see at the end of the tunnel, is a monster train that is going to squish you and all little investor like a penny.

The Dow will hit 2000 before it sees 20,000.
Social Security is going broke.
The terrorist have won.
Iran is going to nuke NYC, and North Korea is going to nuke LA, and Russia will finish off what is left.

Finally, learn Mandarin so that you can ask your future boss, "more tea venerable sir"