Join Early Retirement Today
Closed Thread
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Are we in or nearing the capitulation stage of bear market?
Old 09-17-2008, 11:01 AM   #1
Recycles dryer sheets
shotgunner's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 454
Are we in or nearing the capitulation stage of bear market?

I am wondering if this week is the "panic" or capitulation stage of a bear market resulting in some bargain buying opportunities. It seems the crowd is running for the door. Scary but I am trusting FireCalc.
__________________

__________________
shotgunner is offline  
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 09-17-2008, 11:06 AM   #2
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
2B's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Houston
Posts: 4,330
Quote:
Originally Posted by shotgunner View Post
I am wondering if this week is the "panic" or capitulation stage of a bear market resulting in some bargain buying opportunities. It seems the crowd is running for the door. Scary but I am trusting FireCalc.
I am sure we're in the latter stages of capitulation unless, of course, it keeps going down. If it does, remember I told you to sell everything now before it's too late.

Note: I'm practicing to be an investment advisor.

Unfortunately, this panic has a mind of its own. No telling what will happen.
__________________

__________________
The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane -- Marcus Aurelius
2B is offline  
Old 09-17-2008, 11:26 AM   #3
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
dex's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 5,105
one thing to look at is volume on the s&p. A huge spike in volume on a down day might indicate a bottom.
__________________
Sometimes death is not as tragic as not knowing how to live. This man knew how to live--and how to make others glad they were living. - Jack Benny at Nat King Cole's funeral
dex is offline  
Old 09-17-2008, 11:33 AM   #4
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
2B's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Houston
Posts: 4,330
I've seen many market bottoms without the classic "capitulation" -- massive drop with massive volume followed by a turnaround. I think the whole thing isn't anything but an urban legend. I know CNBC and other financial talking heads like to keep talking about it.
__________________
The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane -- Marcus Aurelius
2B is offline  
Old 09-17-2008, 11:35 AM   #5
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
FinanceDude's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 12,484
Quote:
Originally Posted by 2B View Post
I've seen many market bottoms without the classic "capitulation" -- massive drop with massive volume followed by a turnaround. I think the whole thing isn't anything but an urban legend. I know CNBC and other financial talking heads like to keep talking about it.
I could find any homeless person on any street in America and they would have better knowledge than the CNBC folks.......
__________________
Consult with your own advisor or representative. My thoughts should not be construed as investment advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results (love that one).......:)


This Thread is USELESS without pics.........:)
FinanceDude is offline  
Old 09-17-2008, 11:36 AM   #6
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
2B's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Houston
Posts: 4,330
Quote:
Originally Posted by FinanceDude View Post
I could find any homeless person on any street in America and they would have better knowledge than the CNBC folks.......
But the typical homeless woman isn't anywhere near as cute as the CNBC "money babes."

This thread has been officially derailed.
__________________
The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane -- Marcus Aurelius
2B is offline  
Old 09-17-2008, 11:43 AM   #7
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
cute fuzzy bunny's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Losing my whump
Posts: 22,697
Just wait for the s&p 500 to cross the 200 day moving average for about 5-7 business days, then throw your remaining cash at it.

Next month, maybe six weeks.
__________________
Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Just another form of "buy low, sell high" for those who have trouble with things. This rule is not universal. Do not buy a 1973 Pinto because everyone else is afraid of it.
cute fuzzy bunny is offline  
Old 09-17-2008, 11:53 AM   #8
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
FIRE'd@51's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 2,315
My first boss on Wall Street used to say "Nobody rings a bell at a market bottom".
__________________
FIRE'd@51 is offline  
Old 09-17-2008, 11:56 AM   #9
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
FinanceDude's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 12,484
"Fortunes have been made by selling too soon"..........
__________________
Consult with your own advisor or representative. My thoughts should not be construed as investment advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results (love that one).......:)


This Thread is USELESS without pics.........:)
FinanceDude is offline  
Old 09-17-2008, 11:57 AM   #10
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Leonidas's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Where the stars at night are big and bright
Posts: 2,847
Quote:
Originally Posted by FIRE'd@51 View Post
My first boss on Wall Street used to say "Nobody rings a bell at a market bottom".
Yep, but a lot of people do look back in later years and say "I wish I had bought back then." As soon as I finish my time machine I am on my way to wealth beyond my dreams!
__________________
There is no pleasure in having nothing to do; the fun is having lots to do and not doing it. - Andrew Jackson
Leonidas is offline  
Old 09-17-2008, 11:58 AM   #11
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
FinanceDude's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 12,484
Quote:
Originally Posted by 2B View Post
I am sure we're in the latter stages of capitulation unless, of course, it keeps going down. If it does, remember I told you to sell everything now before it's too late.

Note: I'm practicing to be an investment advisor.
You're almost at "rookie in a bullpen" status as an investment advisor.......
__________________
Consult with your own advisor or representative. My thoughts should not be construed as investment advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results (love that one).......:)


This Thread is USELESS without pics.........:)
FinanceDude is offline  
Old 09-17-2008, 11:59 AM   #12
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
cute fuzzy bunny's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Losing my whump
Posts: 22,697
So, that means he charges a little extra because he's not burdened by years of unnecessary experience and can make the absolute best choices based on todays data alone?
__________________
Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Just another form of "buy low, sell high" for those who have trouble with things. This rule is not universal. Do not buy a 1973 Pinto because everyone else is afraid of it.
cute fuzzy bunny is offline  
Old 09-17-2008, 12:01 PM   #13
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
2B's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Houston
Posts: 4,330
Quote:
Originally Posted by cute fuzzy bunny View Post
So, that means he charges a little extra because he's not burdened by years of unnecessary experience and can make the absolute best choices based on todays data alone?
Data? I don't need no stinkin' data.
__________________
The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane -- Marcus Aurelius
2B is offline  
Old 09-17-2008, 12:03 PM   #14
Moderator
MichaelB's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Rocky Inlets
Posts: 24,406
From a Consuelo Mack Wealthtrack interview with Peter Bernstein in Oct '05. The emphasis at the end is mine, but I think it is particularly appropriate. It is definitely not the time to bet the ranch nor cash out. It may be an opportunity to buy something of quality that is suffering in price. Maybe it's time to rethink buy and hold...

Quote:
CONSUELO MACK Now, you've been an early proponent of the theory that stocks and bonds -- stocks, especially, I think -- are going to deliver low returns. After the terrific returns we saw in the 80s and 90s that essentially we're talking about lower returns going forward. How low, and why do you feel that way?
PETER BERNSTEIN: How low? Who knows? Just not high. One thing bothers me about this view, that there's very little opposition to it.
CONSUELO MACK: And it's not going to be with our other two guests either.
PETER BERNSTEIN: And that's dangerous. But it's very hard to make the case that returns will be, say, after inflation, more than 6% to 7%. That's the most optimistic expectation. We start from a point where we've had a very -- a huge bull market in the 1990s, only part of which has been given back. Equities are still valued at historically high prices. Interest rates, I don't have to tell you, are historically low. And so you start from there, and there you are. I think something very important to think about this, that a period of low returns, you think, well, every year maybe we'll have 4%, 5%. It doesn't work that way. Low returns result from high volatility. You have a big year, and then a bad year, and the pattern of low return periods is high volatility, not low volatility. It's a scary time
Michael
__________________
MichaelB is offline  
Old 09-17-2008, 12:03 PM   #15
Dryer sheet aficionado
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 49
This market is definitely not noob-friendly :confused:
__________________
Tempesta is offline  
Old 09-17-2008, 12:08 PM   #16
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
2B's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Houston
Posts: 4,330
Going back to my technical analysis phase I looked at all of the secret methods to correctly identify when the market bottoms. Nothing is reliable except with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight. Then it's easy to see which technical analysis method you should have followed.
__________________
The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane -- Marcus Aurelius
2B is offline  
Old 09-17-2008, 12:13 PM   #17
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 987
Quote:
Originally Posted by 2B View Post
Going back to my technical analysis phase I looked at all of the secret methods to correctly identify when the market bottoms.
Ooh! Can I hire you as my "investment advisor" of choice? I'm interested in "secret methods"... \

- Ron
__________________
rs0460a is offline  
Old 09-17-2008, 12:16 PM   #18
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 59
Had a spasm of fear this morning = almost sold "a little bit" to "feel better". Ticker symbol entered, number of shares entered, finger hovering over the "place order" button and then pulled back from the edge and canceled.

I hope that means the bottom is near.
__________________
huskerblue is offline  
Old 09-17-2008, 12:20 PM   #19
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 987
Quote:
Originally Posted by huskerblue View Post
Had a spasm of fear this morning = almost sold "a little bit" to "feel better". Ticker symbol entered, number of shares entered, finger hovering over the "place order" button and then pulled back from the edge and canceled.

I hope that means the bottom is near.
No - it means that you are a very intelligent indivudial to not lock in your losses (IMHO )...

- Ron
__________________
rs0460a is offline  
Old 09-17-2008, 12:34 PM   #20
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
FinanceDude's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 12,484
Quote:
Originally Posted by 2B View Post
Going back to my technical analysis phase I looked at all of the secret methods to correctly identify when the market bottoms. Nothing is reliable except with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight. Then it's easy to see which technical analysis method you should have followed.
I think we need a fine fellow like you on the board of AIG or Lehman brothers...........
__________________

__________________
Consult with your own advisor or representative. My thoughts should not be construed as investment advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results (love that one).......:)


This Thread is USELESS without pics.........:)
FinanceDude is offline  
Closed Thread


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
The Bear Market is Over godoftrading Stock Picking and Market Strategy 19 07-17-2008 08:09 PM
Bear market perspectives clifp FIRE and Money 27 03-22-2008 06:35 PM
Stock Market -- What stage of the business cycle and what is in demand? chinaco FIRE and Money 5 05-19-2007 08:17 PM
secular bear market NYCGuy FIRE and Money 55 03-14-2006 01:54 AM
A Bear Market In Bonds yakers FIRE and Money 6 03-11-2006 05:06 AM

 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 01:56 AM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.