CONSUELO MACK Now, you've been an early proponent of the theory that stocks and bonds -- stocks, especially, I think -- are going to deliver low returns. After the terrific returns we saw in the 80s and 90s that essentially we're talking about lower returns going forward. How low, and why do you feel that way?
PETER BERNSTEIN: How low? Who knows? Just not high. One thing bothers me about this view, that there's very little opposition to it.
CONSUELO MACK: And it's not going to be with our other two guests either.
PETER BERNSTEIN: And that's dangerous. But it's very hard to make the case that returns will be, say, after inflation, more than 6% to 7%. That's the most optimistic expectation. We start from a point where we've had a very -- a huge bull market in the 1990s, only part of which has been given back. Equities are still valued at historically high prices. Interest rates, I don't have to tell you, are historically low. And so you start from there, and there you are. I think something very important to think about this, that a period of low returns, you think, well, every year maybe we'll have 4%, 5%. It doesn't work that way. Low returns result from high volatility. You have a big year, and then a bad year, and the pattern of low return periods is high volatility, not low volatility. It's a scary time
