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Old 07-04-2018, 12:03 PM   #21
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I determined I could retire without considering SS. Therefore being conservative. Whatever we get is bonus. Given that I have not given much consideration to long term care my hope is that the balance out.
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Old 07-04-2018, 12:11 PM   #22
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Yes, with a 25% haircut. But per FIRECalc I'm OK with zero SS as well.
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Old 07-04-2018, 12:21 PM   #23
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I along with my two sons have been on it for 3 years now. I'd be very surprised
if it was not cut by 50% in 15 years when I turn 80 and my youngest turns 18.
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Old 07-04-2018, 12:23 PM   #24
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Yes - I deserve my money back with interest.
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Are you counting on SS?
Old 07-04-2018, 12:30 PM   #25
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Are you counting on SS?

Quote:
Originally Posted by jjflyman View Post
As I read these forums I see a lot of talk about nest egg size and withdrawal rates.
Are people not counting on SS? I rarely see SS included in their formulas. I've run the numbers and with my SS + spouse SS + small pension, all our basic living expenses are more than covered. Withdrawing 3-4% on our retirement saving would be an extra 30-40K a year, giving us plenty of cushion.
I don't mean to start an argument, but I don't think someone needs a huge nest egg to early retire (say 62) if they live in a relatively low cost of living area. Especially if they can stay under ACA subsidies limits.
I didn't count on it when I was doing my retirement planning, because of all the scare stories about SS running out of money. Personally I don't believe that will happen, but I was nervous enough about it that I ran my retirement planning both with and without SS, to make sure I would be OK without it.

At this point, I have been retired for 9 years and I am on SS. I wouldn't need it to survive, but I am glad that I have it and would not be at all happy if it vanished.

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Old 07-04-2018, 12:33 PM   #26
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Originally Posted by USGrant1962 View Post
Yes, with a 25% haircut. But per FIRECalc I'm OK with zero SS as well.
Same here. I include PV of 75% of SS when calculating my investment net worth * VPW factor to give me my target budget for the year.
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Old 07-04-2018, 01:57 PM   #27
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Are people not counting on SS?
Yes. I am completely confident that I will begin drawing social security benefits when I reach ago 70 in six years.
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Old 07-04-2018, 02:02 PM   #28
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Yes, we are counting on social security in retirement, but I am only planning to receive 75% of what SS estimates we'll get.
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Old 07-04-2018, 02:37 PM   #29
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We both turn 62 next month and at the moment are going to hold off on collecting and reevaluate each year. We’re pretty confident we don’t need it, but hope to leave a nest egg for our kids and some charities.
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Old 07-04-2018, 02:38 PM   #30
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I would count on it once I decided to take it. Do not take away my benefits once I am getting them or else.... My big decision is whether I take it at 65 (January) or FRA (66) when I apply for Medicare and have it deducted from it. I am waiting to see what the ACA turns out for DW in 2019 who is only 60 this year as it would put our MAGI up. The difference for me if I take it at 65 vs 66 is only (-150pm or $1800pa). If by taking it at 65 vs 66, it increases DWs ACA by ~$400 a month, that is $4800pa, I will wait.
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Old 07-04-2018, 02:41 PM   #31
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We're counting on getting it. Canada's plan is in good shape. But we are not needing it to make ends meet. Will both collect at maximum age likely but have to crunch the numbers a few more times again as the years progress.
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Old 07-04-2018, 02:47 PM   #32
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I am counting on it insofar as it will be nice longevity insurance. COLA military pension + SS + Tricare = more than we need.

My black SWAN scenario is zero SS and a 40% hit to my portfolio the day I retire. Drops me down to $88k / year, which we could survive on or I could just work a few more years.
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Old 07-04-2018, 02:57 PM   #33
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Yes - I deserve my money back with interest.
Exactly and DW and I are collecting it now.
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Old 07-04-2018, 03:02 PM   #34
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I'm expecting to receive the Canadian version of SS.
Would it be realistic to see any significant changes to SS programs in the US or Canada that would impact people older than age 50? It's possible but I'm inclined to think changes would be graduated in at lower ages.

However, I'm not factoring SS for my core retirement spend. I'm hoping to use it for an extra layer of security if my main retirement savings run into problems or some extra discretionary spend if my main retirement savings are fine.
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Old 07-04-2018, 03:24 PM   #35
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Yes, of course I'm counting on something from SS. I'm not too worried about it right now, I still have 14 years to 62. That doesn't mean I will take it then, but I do keep track of my benefits and what I might receive in the future , but surely I shall receive something.
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Old 07-04-2018, 03:29 PM   #36
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I think there should be a sliding scale of how much one "counts on it" relative to planned retirement age. While I do think in large part it will still exist for decades, things like pushing up the FRA, or slight haircuts, aren't impossible to imagine.

Should any changes like that occur, I would be very surprised if they didn't get grandfathered by age. IE, everyone already on it or 5 years away? no change. 10? eh.... 20 - ok the goal post is over here now. that sort of thing.

In short, the earlier retirement one plans for, the less they should count on SS.
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Are you counting on SS?
Old 07-04-2018, 03:30 PM   #37
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Are you counting on SS?

I think SS will be there, because we’ve all paid into it our whole careers, as have even our politicians, so it’s unimaginable to me that SS would be allowed to just collapse and go away. It’s the only income source for so many retirees (who vote) that there would be pitchforks and torches in the streets if that happened. Military cuts and tax increases, etc. will almost certainly have to happen, too, I think. The country’s demographics trends and deficit projections are so daunting that, like others, our plan assumes 75% benefits at FRA.
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Old 07-04-2018, 03:35 PM   #38
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I can literally not count on it because I only put 12 years into the system, I’d be lucky to get $700-800 when it comes my time
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Old 07-04-2018, 03:36 PM   #39
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Yes, but my eligibility is still a few years down the road , so I am not counting on 100% , and I am subject to the gov. pension haircut off of the potential . I paid in for 26 years before becoming a government employee. if I see only 50% I would not be too surprised.
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Old 07-04-2018, 03:39 PM   #40
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Retired at age 50 with decent local government retirement. We downsized from DC-Metro and had tons of savings.

Age 62 we took SS and it's just gravy.
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