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Article: Enjoy retirement in your 90s
Old 06-10-2011, 11:19 PM   #1
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Article: Enjoy retirement in your 90s

Have I mentioned how much I hate articles like this one by Robert Powell in MarketWatch?

Quote:
In fact, many Americans will have to keep on working well into their 70s and 80s to afford retirement, according to the study, titled “The Impact of Deferring Retirement Age on Retirement Income Adequacy.” .... Well, the sad truth is that not working is no longer an option and working past age 65 is fast becoming a fact of life, at least for those in the lowest three income quartiles.
Then there's this:

Quote:
Now the reality about EBRI’s findings is that many Americans — who are able to continue working and whose skills are still in demand — are already working past age 65. In 2009, 17.2% of Americans age 65 and older were in the labor force, according to recent AARP Public Policy Institute report, “Family Income Sources for Older People, 2009.”
Wow, 17.2%! How persuasive. I always distrust a writer who uses a minority percentage to support a point. It's a clear indication the facts are being molded to the writer's premise.

At the end of the article, finally something I can agree with:

Quote:
“This report just reinforces the need for a new social compact that provides increased financial security in return for increased contribution,” said Marc Freedman, author of “The Big Shift: Navigating the New Stage Beyond Midlife and CEO of Civic Ventures.”

“We need to enable the many people who want and need to work longer, without hurting those who are not able to,” Freedman said.
Articles like this one dovetail with the pervasive premise, taken as a given through constant repetition, that we're all going to live much longer. It goes largely uncontested because most people would like to believe it. Howard S. Friedman provides another point of view in the Huffington Post.
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Old 06-10-2011, 11:24 PM   #2
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Originally Posted by wishin&hopin View Post
Have I mentioned how much I hate articles like this one by Robert Powell in MarketWatch?



Then there's this:



Wow, 17.2%! How persuasive. I always distrust a writer who uses a minority percentage to support a point. It's a clear indication the facts are being molded to the writer's premise.

At the end of the article, finally something I can agree with:



Articles like this one dovetail with the pervasive premise, taken as a given through constant repetition, that we're all going to live much longer. It goes largely uncontested because most people would like to believe it. Howard S. Friedman provides another point of view in the Huffington Post.
Howard friedman is obviously correct. This error- confusing anticipated lifespan at birth with post 65 lifespan is so fundamental, and so easy to understand that I think it is usually if not always deliberately mistrepresented in order to manipulate public opinion.

Ha
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Old 06-11-2011, 02:20 AM   #3
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it seems to me that it is also important to know how many 20 yr olds reach SS FRA. if that percentage is increasing then there would be an impact on both SS and medicare funding.
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Old 06-11-2011, 06:38 AM   #4
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it seems to me that it is also important to know how many 20 yr olds reach SS FRA. if that percentage is increasing then there would be an impact on both SS and medicare funding.
Probably only a small change. To affect the SS funds would require that substantially more people who previously died in their 50s and 60s are living into their 70s and 80s. Some of that is undoubtedly happening because of better treatment of heart disease and cancer. But all the articles I have read say the overwhelming factor driving increases in longevity are reductions in infant and child mortality. That means more people overall reaching SS age but they paid into the system whereas previously less people survived long enough to pay into the system or pull from it.

Edit: maybe only a small change or maybe larger than I am guessing. The actual the numbers should be carefully evaluated.
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Old 06-11-2011, 07:07 AM   #5
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Working beyond age 65 isn't a bad thing IMO, having to work beyond age 65 is though...
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Old 06-11-2011, 07:10 AM   #6
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It seem like most people I know are gone before 90.
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Old 06-11-2011, 07:10 AM   #7
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In some respects the notion of working till you die (or close to it) is a return to an earlier time when people either didn't retire at all or, if they did retire, only expected to live for a few years after leaving the workforce.

The only thing I take from articles like this is that if you want to retire early ("early" being whatever you define it as), LBYM and sensible investing from an early age are a must (failing which, work for the government).

Lots of comments on how unrealistic it is to expect to be able to find employment in you 70s and 80s.
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Old 06-11-2011, 02:17 PM   #8
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it seems to me that it is also important to know how many 20 yr olds reach SS FRA. if that percentage is increasing then there would be an impact on both SS and medicare funding.
The SS actuaries have this handy historical table. Life Expectancy for Social Security

Their projections of SS finances are based on pretty sophisticated mortality projections that include deaths at all ages. Look of "cohort mortality tables" on their site.
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Old 06-11-2011, 02:36 PM   #9
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The SS actuaries have this handy historical table. Life Expectancy for Social Security

Their projections of SS finances are based on pretty sophisticated mortality projections that include deaths at all ages. Look of "cohort mortality tables" on their site.
Thats pretty handy. So the percent getting to 65 from 21 has increased quite a bit but once they get there they don't live much longer than those who made it in the past. Probably still has a substantial impact on SS funding.
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Old 06-11-2011, 02:51 PM   #10
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I've got to be skeptical about how the EBRI authors defined "enough". They say that people who averaged $11,700 while working will need to work until 84 before they have even a 50% chance of affording retirement.

I think that someone retiring at 66 today, with an average indexed income $11,700 would get a SS benefit of about $8,950. If that person defers benefits to age 70, his/her SS benefit would be $11,800, just a little more than the average before-tax income before retirement. If this person was surviving while working, it seems that he/she has "enough" to retire at 70.
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Old 06-11-2011, 03:00 PM   #11
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It seem like most people I know are gone before 90.
One can only hope, strictly speaking for myself...
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Old 06-11-2011, 03:00 PM   #12
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At the end of the article, finally something I can agree with:

“This report just reinforces the need for a new social compact that provides increased financial security in return for increased contribution,” said Marc Freedman, author of “The Big Shift: Navigating the New Stage Beyond Midlife and CEO of Civic Ventures.”

“We need to enable the many people who want and need to work longer, without hurting those who are not able to,” Freedman said.
I'm not sure what that means.
If he means it would be good if employers found ways to accommodate older workers with part time schedules and reduced responsibilities in exchange for lower wages, I'd agree.
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Old 06-11-2011, 04:02 PM   #13
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I'm not sure what that means.
If he means it would be good if employers found ways to accommodate older workers with part time schedules and reduced responsibilities in exchange for lower wages, I'd agree.
All of Freedman's books, including "Encore" and "Primetime", advocate continuing to work as long as you're able. He can't even spell "ER".

To be fair, he's in the "work if you want to" class, not the "work until you drop" sector. One of his suggestions was to pay seniors a stipend for acting as Big Brothers/Big Sisters and in other social/community programs.
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