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Old 04-06-2010, 08:41 AM   #21
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Well I could go on and on...

The madder I get and the more bearish I get the higher the market goes



Heck the market just keeps going up every day with hardly a blip down...

Up Up Up on low low volume...

So when does the card castle fall
Just keep being bearish Bubba...........the formula is working.
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Old 04-06-2010, 09:19 AM   #22
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You should know that this kind of stuff ruins the days of the dedicated sourpusses on this forum.
Plus it looks like time to mow the dang grass for the first time this season.

Rats!

heh heh heh - V shaped smeee shaped - balanced index on full auto - soldier on - or,or if you must be active - pssst Wellesley - spread a little turf builder, grub worm killer, rent an aerator, reseed, etc, etc.
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Old 04-06-2010, 09:41 AM   #23
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While a lagging indicator, it is very hard to see how a consumer driven economy can do well with that level of economically hurting Americans.
Remember that growth and contraction is determined by changes in economic activity, not stasis. So contraction was driven, in part, by rising layoffs and a resulting reduction in consumer spending. But the thrust behind that is pretty much spent. Layoffs are declining, as is consumer retrenchment. So the force behind contraction is abating. Meanwhile people still need things. And they need to replace things that maybe should have been replaced two years ago. So pent-up demand causes some forward momentum. Which, hopefully, results in hiring and a self sustaining recovery.
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Old 04-06-2010, 09:44 AM   #24
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An improving stock market is completely consistent with widespread poverty in a third world country such as the USA. Third world countries are indifferent to widespread poverty so long as as it does not destabilize the social system. The trick is to convince poor people that they are poor because
1) God made them that way or
2) they are lazy,stupid or criminal so they deserve to be poor or
3) They are poor now but everything will be fabulous in the future as long as they don't bother the rich
4) they are actually rich because the table scraps they eat are far better than the table scraps in other countries
etc
The real occupational recession in the USA is among two groups.
1) Semi skilled production workers are having their jobs outsourced and/or replaced by technology. They are actually losing their jobs. They will be carried for a while by the unemployment system and spouses but eventually will start to reduce their consumption to the minimum. These people compete directly with immigrants, both lawful and unlawful.
2) Young people coming through the educational pipeline are finding very tough going, espeically among the highly educated. The lucky ones will be supported by families

Neither of these groups have much effect on the stock market
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Old 04-06-2010, 11:42 AM   #25
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An improving stock market is completely consistent with widespread poverty in a third world country such as the USA. Third world countries are indifferent to widespread poverty so long as as it does not destabilize the social system. The trick is to convince poor people that they are poor because
1) God made them that way or
2) they are lazy,stupid or criminal so they deserve to be poor or
3) They are poor now but everything will be fabulous in the future as long as they don't bother the rich
4) they are actually rich because the table scraps they eat are far better than the table scraps in other countries
etc
The real occupational recession in the USA is among two groups.
1) Semi skilled production workers are having their jobs outsourced and/or replaced by technology. They are actually losing their jobs. They will be carried for a while by the unemployment system and spouses but eventually will start to reduce their consumption to the minimum. These people compete directly with immigrants, both lawful and unlawful.
2) Young people coming through the educational pipeline are finding very tough going, espeically among the highly educated. The lucky ones will be supported by families

Neither of these groups have much effect on the stock market
That may be a little too over the top... However, there was a study done by some bank a few years ago that said the US and many other countries have "plutonomy" economies.


Plutonomy


So, it may be a good idea to consider that consumer spending can indeed remain strong even if a majority of the population is broke/unemployed.

However, I think when it comes to your number two above, young highly educated people, that they will be fine. I do think not enough are majoring in STEM fields like engineering, but even then, the unemployment rate for college graduates is supposedly only 5% right now. That's full employment technically.

EDIT: Removed the rest of my comment because I think it is too political.
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Old 04-06-2010, 12:41 PM   #26
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[QUOTE=ESRwannabe;922732]



However, I think when it comes to your number two above, young highly educated people, that they will be fine. I do think not enough are majoring in STEM fields like engineering, but even then, the unemployment rate for college graduates is supposedly only 5% right now. That's full employment technically.

[/QUOTE

They get employment by displacing the lesser educated, but salaries drop and stay low
WSJ last year

"The bad news for this spring's college graduates is that they're entering the toughest labor market in at least 25 years.
The worse news: Even those who land jobs will likely suffer lower wages for a decade or more compared to those lucky enough to graduate in better times, studies show."
College Graduates to See Low Wages for Years - WSJ.com



"College graduates remain better off than those with only high-school diplomas, in good times and bad. The unemployment rate in April among four-year college graduates between 20 and 24 years old was 6.1%; among those the same age with only high-school diplomas, it was 19.6%.
But a college degree isn't an automatic ticket to upward mobility, either. Even before the recession began, graduates were seeing their wages shrink. Between 2002 and 2007, according to government data, the inflation-adjusted hourly wage for men ages 25 to 35 with bachelor's degrees (and no graduate degrees) fell 4.5%. For the typical woman, inflation-adjusted wages fell 4.8%."


My students are engineers, who do better than most, but they describe more "contract jobs" and other non obvious job reductions, e.g. fewer employers are willing to pay for graduate school .
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Old 04-06-2010, 01:30 PM   #27
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BTDT...Class of 1980, BS Physics. It set me back considerably in my fledgling geophysics career of choice, but I found other non-techie work to pay the bills.
I eventually had to go into scientific programming, then computer systems management. I finally got back to physics and engineering in 1988. It can be done if a graduate is motivated and clever and keeps the grass from growing under their feet.
Year and US Unemployment Rates
1980 7.1%
1981 7.6%
1982 9.7%
1983 9.6%


March 2010 employment data is available, courtesy of the USDL at:
Employment Situation Summary
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Old 04-06-2010, 02:13 PM   #28
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Originally Posted by freebird5825 View Post
BTDT...Class of 1980, BS Physics.
Year and US Unemployment Rates
1980 7.1%
1981 7.6%
1982 9.7%
1983 9.6%


March 2010 employment data is available, courtesy of the USDL at:
Employment Situation Summary
I had no idea that unemployment was that bad when I graduated in 81. I guess having a STEM major really helps cause not only did have 6 or 7 offers when graduating, but all of my friends even those with pure math degrees had at least an offer or two. The first few years out of school were kinda of tough with hiring freezes, pay cuts, and a layoff from a startup. In the context of early to mid 80s with unemployment approaching 10% and double digit interest rates and inflation, the current environment while still worse, is not much worse.
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Old 04-06-2010, 05:08 PM   #29
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I had no idea that unemployment was that bad when I graduated in 81. I guess having a STEM major really helps cause not only did have 6 or 7 offers when graduating, but all of my friends even those with pure math degrees had at least an offer or two. The first few years out of school were kinda of tough with hiring freezes, pay cuts, and a layoff from a startup. In the context of early to mid 80s with unemployment approaching 10% and double digit interest rates and inflation, the current environment while still worse, is not much worse.
Not certain, but I suspect the numbers are not comparable due to changes in how calculated. My guess is that today's formula undercounts relative to early '80's (ie- unemployment is worse today).

I'm sufficiently lazy, however, to do the footwork to determine whether I'm correct... one of the advantages of being retired.
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Old 04-06-2010, 11:11 PM   #30
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I think we are close to the edge of a second dip. Will it happen? Dunno. I am holding my breath. If this happens, expect another housing collapse.

Stocks are up, but I do not know how we can have a recovery without jobs.

There are a lot of people hanging on with their fingernails. Some are in my family. There are a lot of technical people out of work also.

Unemployment insurance is not a waste of money. It is a lifeline. It is not a free ride, either. We pay into it all our working lives and it helps when we need it but it doesn't support us like a job would.

I do not think Emeritus is exaggerating at all.
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Old 04-07-2010, 01:08 AM   #31
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I got hit by the high unemployment of the early 80's too. I was unable to find work in my degree field for more than two years. Eventually, I left it and have never gone back. That sort of experience leaves its mark, both financial and psychological, described in this article from the Atlantic Monthly.
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Old 04-07-2010, 01:37 AM   #32
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The way I see it is that back in the late '90s, the New Internet Economy wasn't real, but forward ten years later, neither is the New Normal. Whenever I hear that we have reached some abnormally good or abnormally bad steady state, I know someone is pulling my leg.
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Old 04-07-2010, 06:31 AM   #33
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That sort of experience leaves its mark, both financial and psychological, described in this article from the Atlantic Monthly.
Boy oh boy, that is one well written, and seemingly well researched, but very depressing article. It provides much food for thought.

Thanks for the link.
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Old 04-07-2010, 08:16 AM   #34
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It is interesting that there is such polarity among the correspondents of this forum on this subject. It seems that we do not all perceive this situation in the same way. Assuming this reflects society at large, without a consensus, it is unlikely that a solution satisfactory to all will be reached. A divided populace will leave it to the power brokers to determine the course of action. Considering the experience of the last 10 years, it is unlikely that I for one will like the results. God help my kids.
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Old 04-07-2010, 09:22 AM   #35
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Meanwhile people still need things. And they need to replace things that maybe should have been replaced two years ago. So pent-up demand causes some forward momentum. Which, hopefully, results in hiring and a self sustaining recovery.
Sounds like wishful thinking, which is what this Congress and Administration are all about..........
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Old 04-07-2010, 09:35 AM   #36
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Sounds like wishful thinking, which is what this Congress and Administration are all about..........
Maybe. But it also the consensus view among economists.

Let's set a date to check back here in a year and see who was right.

Or maybe I should ask if you want to go "double or nothing". From May 2009 . ..

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The rally is a SUCKER rally........you heard it here first........
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First, really? That's strange, because just about everyone else I know also says its a sucker's rally. Funny thing is that they're all waiting to buy the next leg down . . . wonder how that's going to work out when everyone seems to be playing from exactly the same play book.
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The worst is not over. Since "everyone knows" its a sucker rally, why are stocks being bid up? There must be more suckers than I ever imagined. The market is ripe for a 20-25% correction by the end of summer. Not EVERYTHING is pirced into the market........
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Old 04-07-2010, 09:39 AM   #37
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And eCONomist's have a pretty good track record right
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Old 04-07-2010, 09:43 AM   #38
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And eCONomist's have a pretty good track record right
Dude, do you want to go back and look at your track record?
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Old 04-07-2010, 09:56 AM   #39
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Well I could go on and on...

The madder I get and the more bearish I get the higher the market goes
The market is what it is. OK - so it's not doing what you expect, or perhaps what you think it should do.

Nevertheless, it's really not worth getting angry over. That is just wasted angst and might interfere with your long term investing strategy.

The best you can do is cover your bases, and then go about your own life and ignore the market fluctuations.

Audrey
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Old 04-07-2010, 10:12 AM   #40
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My track record is pretty good

I made more than 400K since I left my job on 7-18-08

And lost NOTHING during the last plunge...
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