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Old 04-07-2010, 10:14 AM   #41
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The market isn't what's making me mad...
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Old 04-07-2010, 10:19 AM   #42
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Im gonna guess we will be down today....

Treasury auctions will go off OK...

Banana Ben will speak about rates going lower...

Market closes higher...

Earnings week will be a case of buy the rumor sell the news...

Lather rinse and repeat
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Old 04-07-2010, 10:19 AM   #43
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Maybe. But it also the consensus view among economists.
Well you know what happens when all economists agree.

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Let's set a date to check back here in a year and see who was right.
One year from today Futureme.org will mail me a link to this comment. I'm not betting any money on it, but I'm really curious how this will work out.

Now how do you define "right" in this case? Which indicators will we use? GDP and U-6?
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Old 04-07-2010, 10:21 AM   #44
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The current regime will do anything they can to prop this up until the election...
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Old 04-07-2010, 01:32 PM   #45
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My track record is pretty good

I made more than 400K since I left my job on 7-18-08

And lost NOTHING during the last plunge...
I was thinking of something a little more verifiable. Like . . .

March 09
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I see a huge sell off if it makes it back around 9500 or so
May 09
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I think it [the economy] sucks, and it's gonna get worse

Jan 10
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Is anyone else getting the feeling were in for some hard times ahead

Im very nervous about the stock market these days

I've sold off on the recent rallies and and I sold a bunch more last week despite the down market...



Mostly I'd just like to see the folks who have been relentlessly negative the past 12 months at least admit that their past certitude was in error and that they may be as equally in error about the future.
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Old 04-07-2010, 01:35 PM   #46
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Now how do you define "right" in this case? Which indicators will we use? GDP and U-6?
I'll say that one year forward the economy will be expanding (i.e. we're not in a technical recession) and that unemployment (currently 9.7%) will be lower.
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Old 04-07-2010, 01:54 PM   #47
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I'll say that one year forward the economy will be expanding (i.e. we're not in recession) and that unemployment (currently 9.7%) will be lower.
Right - although the unemployment rate may - or not - be lower, there will be >1M additional people working full time.

There will also be more than 100 posts regarding manipulation of employment data in the first 3 months of 2011...
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Old 04-07-2010, 02:01 PM   #48
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Right - although the unemployment rate may - or not - be lower, there will be >1M additional people working full time.

There will also be more than 100 posts regarding manipulation of employment data in the first 3 months of 2011...
People are of course entitled to their opinion. And I've (almost) learned that conspiracy theorists are impervious to empirical evidence and therefore shouldn't be argued with. But I'm not entering into a wager where the other side gets to define success ex post. My position is that the official unemployment rate will be lower than it is today. I don't care how much the labor force grows or doesn't grow. The number is the number is the number.
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Old 04-07-2010, 03:13 PM   #49
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conspiracy theorists are impervious to empirical evidence and therefore shouldn't be argued with.
Maybe the same goes for those who believe everything politicians, "experts" and media say.

I mean, just look at this. (I don't know or endorse this site, I was just googling for certain quotes)
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Old 04-07-2010, 03:44 PM   #50
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Maybe the same goes for those who believe everything politicians, "experts" and media say.

I mean, just look at this. (I don't know or endorse this site, I was just googling for certain quotes)
I wasn't referring to people being wrong. I'm pretty sure Irving Fisher would acknowledge that his prediction was wrong. What I was referring to was MichaelB's comment about people alleging that the unemployment data is manipulated. What I specifically had in mind was the group (some of which populate this site) who repeatedly allege that CPI is several hundred basis points too low. That is demonstratively false. But no demonstration ever satisfies. I can only assume the unemployment number is similarly manipulated.
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Old 04-07-2010, 03:45 PM   #51
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Mostly I'd just like to see the folks who have been relentlessly negative the past 12 months at least admit that their past certitude was in error and that they may be as equally in error about the future.
I've been too negative and missed a lot from the rally. I was buying OK on the way down, but cashed in most of those buys for what looked like nice ST gains in the time of a lot of uncertainty in 09... and as a result missed a bunch of doubles / tripples / quadruples.
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Old 04-07-2010, 03:56 PM   #52
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I still agree with all of those statements

And Im still very cautious... I even bought a little Wellington at the close today

The Fed will keep this propped up and working until it doesn't work anymore...

When that happens plan B scares me...

The weather has definitely been improving

But I see a long hot summer ahead, there's gonna be a lot more hot air coming
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Old 04-07-2010, 04:52 PM   #53
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I still agree with all of those statements
Never wrong, just early.
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Old 04-07-2010, 05:23 PM   #54
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I still agree with all of those statements

And Im still very cautious... I even bought a little Wellington at the close today

The Fed will keep this propped up and working until it doesn't work anymore...

When that happens plan B scares me...

The weather has definitely been improving

But I see a long hot summer ahead, there's gonna be a lot more hot air coming
How can you "Still agree with all those statements?"

The fact that your early 2009 predictions didn't come to pass doesn't matter? (The economy DID improve in 2009 and there was no big market sell off when the DOW reached 9500).

You just change the date of the of the predictions to the present and reaffirm?

You are instead really making new predictions:
"The economy has improved and the jobs lost/gained has improved since May '09, but now it's gonna get worse"
"Now that the DOW is almost 11,000 you see a huge sell-off."

Those may be perfectly valid new predictions. But I really don't see how you can claim that you are still sticking to your old predictions. Your old predictions didn't come to pass.

Audrey
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Old 04-07-2010, 05:52 PM   #55
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The last dip was down to 97-9800...

If we go below that to 9500 I think it goes lower...

I was wrong about the sell off because a lot of money sold off before that and went to bonds.

Most of that money never came back and the FED and the banks have been running the markets up on low volume.

None of the problems that caused this whole mess have been fixed.

In fact we just have a whole lot more debt and taxes to look forward to

Yes the employment situation has improved... But the only people I know that are better off are those with money in the stock market.

Many are working for less money.

But as we have seen the market isn't gonna care until it does so I gotta hold my nose and stay long...

That still has me very worried as I've been all along
I believe "they" are kicking the can up a hill that get's steeper with every step...

But I try to enjoy life in the meantime because I only have one vote
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Old 04-07-2010, 06:41 PM   #56
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Different people have different risk tolerances, the majority of people have a very low risk tolerance, that is why stocks have consistently offered a significant real return in the long run. Those near/at retirement also have very little need to take on risk, so they can lower the amount they take on, and don't have to bother monitoring it nearly as much.

That said, I will share why I think the markets improved last March in 2009. And that was the jobs picture. The markets react very quickly whatever is driving investment choices at the time. Lately, that has been jobs, because the jobs situation has been extraordinarily bad. From 2008 until early 2009, jobs were in a downward spiral, but in March, the downward spiral stopped. The actual jobless rate was at its worst at that time, of course, but the amounts of layoffs significantly dropped, this then continued on through the rest of 2009, and into 2010.

This is the primary reason I changed my allocation in March 2009 to 100% stocks and made my 2009 Roth contribution. On the flip-side, if the amount of jobs created starts to go into a downward spiral again, watch out, that should be a pretty strong indicator the market is going to tank for the upcoming months. There are obviously other factors to watch, but I think the amount of job creation rate is a primary driver. That said, jobs are in an upward spiral, and I think this will continue until the end of the year at least.

Once the job market gets back to normal, I will once again have no clue when the bottom will fall out, each recession seems to have its own unique traits to it.
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Old 04-07-2010, 07:13 PM   #57
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I was curious about NY unemployment rates, so I went searching.
I found some interesting data presented in an easy to read interactive graphic form. Data sources seem to be sound and are current as of January and/or February 2010.
Databank USA: State Budgets and Financial Deficits — AARP Bulletin Today
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Old 04-07-2010, 07:43 PM   #58
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Google mapped unemployment rates, this is the one I like to use. I set it up to show NY.

Google - public data
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Old 04-07-2010, 07:52 PM   #59
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The last dip was down to 97-9800...

If we go below that to 9500 I think it goes lower...

I was wrong about the sell off because a lot of money sold off before that and went to bonds.
In March of '09 the DOW was well below 8000 - so to say "I see a huge sell off if it makes it back around 9500 or so" indicates that you expected it perhaps to get back up to 9500, but if it did then to have a big selloff to well below 9500. Not anything about any dips down to that 9500-9700 from some higher value.

Audrey
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Old 04-07-2010, 10:44 PM   #60
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I was wrong

Did I sell anything at 9500? No I didn't sell anything until the first week of Jan 10...

Do I wish I wouldn't have sold a bit? Yea I guess for the time being...

If I knew what was gonna happen I wouldn't be worried

Do I "Hope" the government can "Change" it for the better and save us all? Im not counting on it
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