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Old 05-05-2014, 06:31 PM   #1
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Articles in the news.

well I have a choice of articles in todays news...both done by experts I'm sure.

"Bubble talk catches fire among big-money pros"

or

"9 reasons the U.S. economy is stronger than you think"

always good to have a choice...I guess...didn't read either.
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Old 05-05-2014, 06:56 PM   #2
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Old 05-05-2014, 06:57 PM   #3
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I really enjoy reading Bob Johnson's economic analysis articles for M*.

His article from last Saturday is very encouraging - particularly regarding the improving US employment situation. Bouncing Up or Bouncing Back? The articles are free. You may have to register.

This is not a pollyanna guy. He tends to be very even in his detailed reporting, and slow to change overall longterm outlook until the facts overwhelm.

If you want to understand the US economy and stay informed, I suggest that you read his articles every weekend. Realize that he's not doing market analysis, just economic analysis. The two diverge fairly often.
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Old 05-05-2014, 07:23 PM   #4
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If you want to know the strength of the economy simply count the cars in Home Depot's parking lot.
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Old 05-06-2014, 09:41 AM   #5
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If you want to know the strength of the economy simply count the cars in Home Depot's parking lot.
OK I have been using the number of min. wait for a table at the Cheese Cake Factory.
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Old 05-07-2014, 04:28 AM   #6
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Old 05-07-2014, 11:37 AM   #7
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Originally Posted by ducky911 View Post
well I have a choice of articles in todays news...both done by experts I'm sure.

"Bubble talk catches fire among big-money pros"

or

"9 reasons the U.S. economy is stronger than you think"

always good to have a choice...I guess...didn't read either.
So, I’ve been thinking about this lately. Over the course of my life there were supposed to be all sort of calamities and dire warnings of doom and apocalypse. What I’ve learned in my 60 plus years is that nothing seems to ever be as bad as the ‘experts’ claim.

The sixties had us digging bomb shelters in our backyards, stocking up on food and readying for nuclear attack.

If that didn’t happen, we were going to be all starving from massive overpopulation within 20 years.

The seventies brought us warnings about running out of oil. By now, all the oil was supposed to be gone and we were going to be living by candlelight and riding bicycles.

The ‘albedo effect’ was going to bring about global cooling not seen since the ice age, which, coupled to the demise of oil, one would assume we’d all freeze to death.

In the eighties the AIDS virus was “a mere mutation or two” away from being able to be contracted as easily as the common cold or flu.

The nineties saw us worrying about global warming, which then became climate change.

More recently, we had the BP Gulf oil spill which many billed as “the greatest environmental disaster in the history of mankind”.

I'm not saying that many of these issues did not impact certain people, but the severity and “end of life as we know it” never seems to materialize.
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Old 05-07-2014, 11:43 AM   #8
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Originally Posted by marko View Post
So, I’ve been thinking about this lately. Over the course of my life there were supposed to be all sort of calamities and dire warnings of doom and apocalypse. What I’ve learned in my 60 plus years is that nothing seems to ever be as bad as the ‘experts’ claim.

The sixties had us digging bomb shelters in our backyards, stocking up on food and readying for nuclear attack.

If that didn’t happen, we were going to be all starving from massive overpopulation within 20 years.

The seventies brought us warnings about running out of oil. By now, all the oil was supposed to be gone and we were going to be living by candlelight and riding bicycles.

The ‘albedo effect’ was going to bring about global cooling not seen since the ice age, which, coupled to the demise of oil, one would assume we’d all freeze to death.

In the eighties the AIDS virus was “a mere mutation or two” away from being able to be contracted as easily as the common cold or flu.

The nineties saw us worrying about global warming, which then became climate change.

More recently, we had the BP Gulf oil spill which many billed as “the greatest environmental disaster in the history of mankind”.

I'm not saying that many of these issues did not impact certain people, but the severity and “end of life as we know it” never seems to materialize.
The big, upcoming asteroid impact will do us in......
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Old 05-07-2014, 12:48 PM   #9
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Originally Posted by marko View Post
So, I’ve been thinking about this lately. Over the course of my life there were supposed to be all sort of calamities and dire warnings of doom and apocalypse. What I’ve learned in my 60 plus years is that nothing seems to ever be as bad as the ‘experts’ claim.

The sixties had us digging bomb shelters in our backyards, stocking up on food and readying for nuclear attack.

If that didn’t happen, we were going to be all starving from massive overpopulation within 20 years.

The seventies brought us warnings about running out of oil. By now, all the oil was supposed to be gone and we were going to be living by candlelight and riding bicycles.

The ‘albedo effect’ was going to bring about global cooling not seen since the ice age, which, coupled to the demise of oil, one would assume we’d all freeze to death.

In the eighties the AIDS virus was “a mere mutation or two” away from being able to be contracted as easily as the common cold or flu.

The nineties saw us worrying about global warming, which then became climate change.

More recently, we had the BP Gulf oil spill which many billed as “the greatest environmental disaster in the history of mankind”.

I'm not saying that many of these issues did not impact certain people, but the severity and “end of life as we know it” never seems to materialize.
+1 Great synopsis!!!!
I remember going out with my dad to look at fallout shelters (we didn't buy one, but did prepare some food etc in an interior hallway)

And the 70s population bomb, running our of oil, and stocking up again for the coming economic collapse.

The albedo effect, great, I was working as a programmer for a climate research group at the time, and they were looking at the current cooling, and temperature data in ice cores, and I remember going to meetings where they showed we could transition from one state (the warm one) to another (ice age) in just a few years.

The AIDS, yes I read about how close we were to another Black Death. I cant remember the book, but it was scary.

Now we have climate change, the rise of China, destruction of the dollar, and can't wait to see what is next.
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Old 05-07-2014, 01:07 PM   #10
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can't wait to see what is next.
I've been hearing stories about antibiotics becoming ineffective and we'll die from simple infections. But I think we'll just turn into zombies.
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Old 05-07-2014, 01:14 PM   #11
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If you want to know the strength of the economy simply count the cars in Home Depot's parking lot.
Sure. Thats a broad indicator of the domestic economy. A finer measure is the number of laborers soliciting shoppers as they enter and leave HD.
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Old 05-07-2014, 01:19 PM   #12
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Sure. Thats a broad indicator of the domestic economy. A finer measure is the number of laborers soliciting shoppers as they enter and leave HD.
I look at the number of empty stores, office buildings and industrial buildings in the area. In SE PA it's getting worse. I hadn't seen a foreclosure in our neighborhood since we moved in to our home 12 years ago, but there are three in the process of foreclosure now.
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Old 05-07-2014, 02:42 PM   #13
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I look at the number of empty stores, office buildings and industrial buildings in the area. In SE PA it's getting worse. I hadn't seen a foreclosure in our neighborhood since we moved in to our home 12 years ago, but there are three in the process of foreclosure now.
I think much of rural America is gone, and ain't coming back.

Here in Stepfordville, the stores and restaurants are packed. But an hour or so out of DFW, the main streets of many small towns are basically ghost towns.
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Old 05-07-2014, 03:45 PM   #14
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If you want to know the strength of the economy simply count the cars in Home Depot's parking lot.
Yeah, traffic here in Bay Area, CA have steadily gotten worse for the last several years. I chalked it up to improving economy. YMMV in other parts of USA.

Articles in the news these days resemble stories out of the National Enquirer.
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Old 05-07-2014, 04:58 PM   #15
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Originally Posted by marko View Post
So, I’ve been thinking about this lately. Over the course of my life there were supposed to be all sort of calamities and dire warnings of doom and apocalypse. What I’ve learned in my 60 plus years is that nothing seems to ever be as bad as the ‘experts’ claim.

...
Good list. I think you could add:

Crack Babies
Bird Flu
Killer Bees
Teflon cooking pans

-ERD50
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Old 05-07-2014, 05:05 PM   #16
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Originally Posted by marko View Post
So, I’ve been thinking about this lately. Over the course of my life there were supposed to be all sort of calamities and dire warnings of doom and apocalypse. What I’ve learned in my 60 plus years is that nothing seems to ever be as bad as the ‘experts’ claim.

.....
How could you forget the collapse of civilization caused by Y2K?

Good summary.
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Old 05-07-2014, 05:12 PM   #17
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Originally Posted by ERD50 View Post
Good list. I think you could add:

Crack Babies
Bird Flu
Killer Bees
Teflon cooking pans

-ERD50
And aluminum too!
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Old 05-07-2014, 05:14 PM   #18
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Yeah, traffic here in Bay Area, CA have steadily gotten worse for the last several years. I chalked it up to improving economy. YMMV in other parts of USA.

Articles in the news these days resemble stories out of the National Enquirer.
My economic gauge is the volume of work trucks (pickups with construction workers and related equipment) on my morning commute north to Fort Collins from Denver, CO. Before 2008 the road was thick with them, after the crash, very few for several years, then two years ago they started coming back. There have been a couple of lagging weeks, but in general the 'work truck traffic' has held steady at about 40% of the pre-crash volume.

Also, anyone remember the swine flu fiasco of 1976? That was a good one.
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Old 05-08-2014, 12:02 AM   #19
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Ebola in the 90's
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Old 05-08-2014, 07:01 AM   #20
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How could you forget the collapse of civilization caused by Y2K?

Good summary.
Slap to forehead! And DW made a bundle consulting on that one too!
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