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Old 11-15-2008, 08:07 AM   #41
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Let um go belly up. I'm predicting DOW 0 anyway. What difference will it make? We bail them out, airlines next, etc etc etc.... then who's going to bail out the government? No way out my friends. Depression here we come.
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Old 11-15-2008, 08:10 AM   #42
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Wow Dawg, I recommend you remove all razor blades and sharp items from your home today.
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Old 11-15-2008, 08:13 AM   #43
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My basic questions remain on the table, is a GM failure more likely than not?
Yes (IMO)

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Would the announcement of a GM failure pull the DOW down significantly. perhaps down 2000 points?
Probably (IMO)

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If so is this not an a good time to take on risk timing the market with some portion of one's portfolio?
Depends on your risk tolerance.
Mine is quite low at this stage.
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Old 11-15-2008, 08:16 AM   #44
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Wow Dawg, I recommend you remove all razor blades and sharp items from your home today.
Nah, drinking coffee now getting ready for some college football. Be sure to watch my beloved Miss State bullies get clobbered by Bama tonight. Of course the dawgs have won the last 2 and bama has not scored an offensive TD in 3 years on my bullies. Hmmmm........nah, no upset in the cards tonight. Maybe I will get rid of my razor blades.
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Old 11-15-2008, 08:59 AM   #45
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A bailout is one thing a bridge loan to get over the hump until the unions
take over their healthcare might be approproate.
If GM goes under this will have a vast ripple effect on many types of business in the country. My former employer as of two weeks ago has
a lot of business with the auto industry, they make industrial lubricants.
What I find interesting now is that a few years back, GM was not paying their bills or they were very slow. Not sure what is going on now.
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or some such nonsense by the new owners of my old company.
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Old 11-15-2008, 09:05 AM   #46
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Nah, drinking coffee now getting ready for some college football. Be sure to watch my beloved Miss State bullies get clobbered by Bama tonight. Of course the dawgs have won the last 2 and bama has not scored an offensive TD in 3 years on my bullies. Hmmmm........nah, no upset in the cards tonight. Maybe I will get rid of my razor blades.

Hey, at least you didn't lose to VMI last night. Thought it couldn't get any worse
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Old 11-15-2008, 09:45 AM   #47
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This says it all. How much debt should the rest of us take on to help big three auto workers with wages & benefits few of us enjoy plus pensions and retiree health care - while offering a product very few people want? And do you think the industry you're in will get a bailout? It's not impossible to be successful building automobiles, Toyota, Honda & Nissan aren't asking for a bailout...
Not to quibble, but a quick search reveals GM and Ford sold 301,557 cars and trucks in October, this being a 45% drop from October last year. So at least that many want their product...
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Old 11-15-2008, 11:46 AM   #48
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The government should take over the auto makers. Wouldn't you like to own a government made car or truck Imagine the commercials..
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Old 11-15-2008, 12:07 PM   #49
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GM = government mule
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Old 11-15-2008, 05:07 PM   #50
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lol! At least they'd have good music in their trucks.
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Old 11-15-2008, 09:21 PM   #51
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When you buy an airline ticket you are putting your LIFE in the hands of the airline. I don't know about you, but that's more important to me than my car warranty
That's not the point. People don't worry about if the airline will still be around several years after they buy their "product." But the longevity and viability of a car company is a concern to a new car buyer.
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Old 11-16-2008, 09:03 AM   #52
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Well whatever is decided I hope accidentally it turns out to be the best decision. I haven't an educated clue and don't think the deciders do either.
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Old 11-16-2008, 10:47 AM   #53
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My basic questions remain on the table, is a GM failure more likely than not? Would the announcement of a GM failure pull the DOW down significantly. perhaps down 2000 points? If so is this not an a good time to take on the risk timing the market with some portion of one's portfolio?
Pulling some dollars out of equities now and plan to go back in after the GM failure?
This is a probability chain. Your guess is as good or more likely as bad as anyone else's.

So if you feel like shooting from the hip, draw!

Ha
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Old 11-16-2008, 11:02 AM   #54
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The government should take over the auto makers. Wouldn't you like to own a government made car or truck Imagine the commercials..
Hint: Look at a postal delivery truck Stylish and durable!
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Old 11-16-2008, 11:24 AM   #55
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Well whatever is decided I hope accidentally it turns out to be the best decision. I haven't an educated clue and don't think the deciders do either.
Well put!
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An interesting wrinkle (Warning, involves fact.)
Old 11-16-2008, 01:27 PM   #56
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An interesting wrinkle (Warning, involves fact.)

FT.com / Companies / Automobiles - Insurers pull cover from GM and Ford suppliers

European credit insurers will no longer cover GM, Ford parts suppliers.

Ha
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Old 11-16-2008, 03:06 PM   #57
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I don't think GM failure would have that big effect on the DOW. The DOW Jones is weird index because it is price weighted and GM is currently trading at $3 so if goes to zero it is a small hit, GM is the only auto stock in the Dow Jones 30.

The S&P which has more Auto suppliers, and steel producers might be effected more.
However, at Dow 8,500 S&P 870, I think the market is already factoring in a 10% unemployment rate.
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Old 11-17-2008, 02:32 PM   #58
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FT.com / Companies / Automobiles - Insurers pull cover from GM and Ford suppliers

European credit insurers will no longer cover GM, Ford parts suppliers.

Ha
Seems like they think bankruptcy is imminent........
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Old 11-17-2008, 02:45 PM   #59
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I think there will be some form of life ring thrown but only if the company and the union give a lot - which is why the risk of the gov doing nothing must be real. The workers won't be happy (neither will the stock holders) but all the parties at the table must understand that the cliff is a step away.
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Old 11-17-2008, 02:50 PM   #60
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I think there will be some form of life ring thrown but only if the company and the union give a lot - which is why the risk of the gov doing nothing must be real. The workers won't be happy (neither will the stock holders) but all the parties at the table must understand that the cliff is a step away.
I hope you're correct about the "company and the union give in a lot" part. Reading between the lines and listening to the tone of Barack's comments on his Sunday night interview would have me believe that a Big Three bailout, at least the opening $25B amount, is simply payback promised pre-election if they could deliver the votes. No strings.....just a gift in return.

That would be congruent with Chicago-style politics.
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