As GM goes so goes the nation (and market), your thoughts and predictions

The answers simple. If you care about US manufacturing and you need a new vehicle buy American:bat:

Honda and Toyota wouldn't be here if people didn't buy em:rant:
 
I buy the best deal and quality. When the big 3 manages to do that I might reconsider :) No, I dont need a truck..
 
Sooooooooooooooooooooo..........

Can I conclude many of you think a bankruptcy of GM could indeed produce a domino effect or otherwise send a shockwave through the economy? Can I also conclude that many of you feel that the bailout should of GM should not happen and if it does it won't fix the problem?

is a further 2000 point decline in the DOW unrealistic if GM fails? (if so that is a 25% drop from where we are at present)

So, if a failure of GM is likely and if it could send the DOW down another 25 points, are we buy and holders simply whistling by the graveyard?

If you think GM is likely to fail why not get out of the market now and plan to go back in at DOW 6000 or 6500 or whatever it falls to when the news/decision is announced? Market timing is gambling, gambling is playing odds, then which odds are better GM failing or surviving?

These are crazy times.
 
If the government really wants to throw 50 billion dollars at the problem, they should at least do something that might help.

They could put out $50 billion in grants to start 5 new car companies with the caveat they they can never buy another company, merge with another company, or be bought by another company. Saturn started from scratch and would still be around today if GM hadn't sucked them dry to limp on a couple more years.
 
Toyota Worried

Do you have a link to what you are hearing? Color me dubious. Clifp


'Detroit meltdown' worries Toyota, Honda

Nicolas Van Praet And Alia McMullen, Financial Post Published: Thursday, November 13, 2008

Japanese automakers Toyota Motor Corp. and Honda MotorCo. say they are "very concerned" about the potential failure of Detroit's three car companies as analysts warn a bankruptcy would throw the entire auto supply base into chaos and rattle the operations of even the most profitable manufacturers.

"We're very concerned" about a Detroit meltdown, said Mike Goss, spokesman for Toyota Motor Engineering &Manufacturing North America Inc. "In the past couple of days I've been asked 'Wouldn't it be great for Toyota if others fail?' We think the opposite is true."

The vehicles Toyota builds in North America contain an average of 75% domestically sourced parts and systems, and Toyota is reliant on many of the same suppliers used by GM, Ford Motor Co. or Chrysler LLC, Mr. Goss said.
 
Do you have a link to what you are hearing? Color me dubious. Clifp


'Detroit meltdown' worries Toyota, Honda

Nicolas Van Praet And Alia McMullen, Financial Post Published: Thursday, November 13, 2008

Japanese automakers Toyota Motor Corp. and Honda MotorCo. say they are "very concerned" about the potential failure of Detroit's three car companies as analysts warn a bankruptcy would throw the entire auto supply base into chaos and rattle the operations of even the most profitable manufacturers.

"We're very concerned" about a Detroit meltdown, said Mike Goss, spokesman for Toyota Motor Engineering &Manufacturing North America Inc. "In the past couple of days I've been asked 'Wouldn't it be great for Toyota if others fail?' We think the opposite is true."

The vehicles Toyota builds in North America contain an average of 75% domestically sourced parts and systems, and Toyota is reliant on many of the same suppliers used by GM, Ford Motor Co. or Chrysler LLC, Mr. Goss said.

Great point... GM and Ford have ownership in a number of foreign car manufacturers and almost all of them are intertwined in some way.
 
I am not suggesting that a GM bankruptcy is a good thing. It isn't but the alternative government loaning more money to GM is worse.

GM's balance sheet is simply to ugly too many liabilities and not enough assets and each and every quarter GM loses more money and the situation gets worse.

The situation is much different than bank or even an AIG, when housing prices stabilize most banking problems go away. When this will occur is anybody guess.

But there is simply to many troubles at GM, Gas is back to two bucks in parts of the country, GM should be able to make money in this environment but of course they are no where close.

One possible compromise would be for the government to step in and provide bankruptcy financing. These are loans that help a company emerge from a bankruptcy reorganization, companies make these loans because they are at the front of the line for being paid back. Given the current treasury rates, we could afford to loan money at the TARP rate of 5% but have taxpayers at the front of the line. GE capital used to be a big provider of bankruptcy loans but they have there own problems.

But in order to have a chance of long-term survival GM needs to be reorganized, shareholders wiped out, and all creditors share in the pain. There is a system to do this reasonably equitable way and it is called bankruptcy court. Without bankruptcy I fear we taxpayers are just shovel dollars into a black hole and we can't afford to do this.

Personally, I am not to hung up on calling GM a US company and Honda a Japanese company. Honda long ago started building and selling the majority of there cars in the US and relying heavily on domestic suppliers. GM had a large overseas work force. Now it is true that most profits and taxes on the profits will flow back to Japan from Honda, but GM is such a long long way from making a profit much less paying taxes that that hardly matters. They are interwined as Chicano has said. It is not like saving GM means we are only saving American jobs , or buying a Toyota or Honda risk throwing a US autoworker out of work. Not all money given to GM would be used domestically and not all US autoworkers work for the big 3.
 
I am not suggesting that a GM bankruptcy is a good thing. It isn't but the alternative government loaning more money to GM is worse.

GM's balance sheet is simply to ugly too many liabilities and not enough assets and each and every quarter GM loses more money and the situation gets worse.

The situation is much different than bank or even an AIG, when housing prices stabilize most banking problems go away. When this will occur is anybody guess.

But there is simply to many troubles at GM, Gas is back to two bucks in parts of the country, GM should be able to make money in this environment but of course they are no where close.

One possible compromise would be for the government to step in and provide bankruptcy financing. These are loans that help a company emerge from a bankruptcy reorganization, companies make these loans because they are at the front of the line for being paid back. Given the current treasury rates, we could afford to loan money at the TARP rate of 5% but have taxpayers at the front of the line. GE capital used to be a big provider of bankruptcy loans but they have there own problems.

But in order to have a chance of long-term survival GM needs to be reorganized, shareholders wiped out, and all creditors share in the pain. There is a system to do this reasonably equitable way and it is called bankruptcy court. Without bankruptcy I fear we taxpayers are just shovel dollars into a black hole and we can't afford to do this.

Personally, I am not to hung up on calling GM a US company and Honda a Japanese company. Honda long ago started building and selling the majority of there cars in the US and relying heavily on domestic suppliers. GM had a large overseas work force. Now it is true that most profits and taxes on the profits will flow back to Japan from Honda, but GM is such a long long way from making a profit much less paying taxes that that hardly matters. They are interwined as Chicano has said, it is like saving GM means we are only saving American cars, or buying a Toyota or Honda risk throwing a US autoworker out of work. Not all money given to GM would be used domestically and not all US autoworkers work for the big 3.

Could not have said it better. I suspect this would cure the problem. Nice point about "American" cars. There has not been pure "American Cars" for about 30 years now. Lift the hood on "your American Car" and you will find parts from many places that are not within our shores. If GM, Ford, and Chrysler do not change drastically, the $50B will just be wasted, and the demise just put off for a while. Change is one thing that they have avoided for the past 30 years - I really doubt they want to, will, and therefore can't. As for Cramer's opinion, like everyone else, he is entitled to his, that does not necessarily make his any more valid than yours or mine.
 
The one difference I'd point out is that there would probably be a significant effect on the consumer's confidence in buying a car from a company in bankruptcy because of the concerns about warranty service. I know that would effect my decision. I don't know how you overcome that but it is very different than buying an airline ticket, or most other products/services.
.

When you buy an airline ticket you are putting your LIFE in the hands of the airline. I don't know about you, but that's more important to me than my car warranty
 
I agree Cramer is annoying and frequently wrong but he is the only one talking on a regular basis that was a hedge fund manager and daily Wall Street insider.

To do what he used to do, trade by the minute, you had to think by the minute. Buy, buy, buy. Sell, sell, sell. Right now. No pondering. He made a ton of money doing that.
.

Please don't admire the guy just because he was a Street insider, there are plenty of those talking many of them being much better at their jobs that Cramer was. Also, if the guy had his money making momentum trades like you just said, why would I trust his strategic vision for the auto industry?

Don't forger, he said Bear Stearns was just fine, and it was a great idea to loan up on Wachovia at 16. Ooops.
 
"If all of GM car capacity is shutdown, you'll see the competitors increase..."
CLIP

That is not what I'm hearing. Toyota and Honda use the same suppliers and they are very worried that if GM goes their same suppliers will not survive. It will happen very quickly and will be very hard to put Humpty Dumpty back together again.

I'd listen to Toyota.

b.
Why would all suppliers fail? Some will fail, some will have to scale back (most probably already have) and some may even grow (picking up the business from those who fail outright). I have countless people claim the entire auto industry would fail - but none have explained how/why that's inevitable. There's a ton of precedent to suggest otherwise, and none to the contrary that I know of. I realize autos are a big industry and the failure of GM (or any of the big three) would be painful, but give me an example of an entire industry that failed only because a major player failed (obviously failure due to product substitution is not the same, ie, slide rules gave way to calculators - we are not talking about people not buying cars at all).

The poster who suggested (via linked article) that any of us take glee in seeing a major business failure is mistaken - but a bailout is not going to fix the major structural financial problems at GM or their products, it only prolongs it. Why take on more debt to simply forestall the inevitable? GM is going to have to completely reinvent itself, management, unions and everything else - a bailout temporarily discourages the sweeping changes that are needed.

It's very unfortunate that the market turned so rapidly, and the mainstream population did that, but not every automaker is failing as a result. Some recognized we weren't going to buy F150's and Suburbans one day.

My company's sales are down 30%, and believe me we've had to take very painful steps. I don't expect a bailout, not sure why I should be forced to bailout anyone else, and just increase the pain of all the non-auto workers.
 
My basic questions remain on the table, is a GM failure more likely than not? Would the announcement of a GM failure pull the DOW down significantly. perhaps down 2000 points? If so is this not an a good time to take on the risk timing the market with some portion of one's portfolio?
Pulling some dollars out of equities now and plan to go back in after the GM failure?
 
Let um go belly up. I'm predicting DOW 0 anyway. What difference will it make? We bail them out, airlines next, etc etc etc.... then who's going to bail out the government? No way out my friends. Depression here we come.
img_747909_0_63a18a1c7f3248ff7f22ad65f253b77c.gif
 
Wow Dawg, I recommend you remove all razor blades and sharp items from your home today.
 
Wow Dawg, I recommend you remove all razor blades and sharp items from your home today.

Nah, drinking coffee now getting ready for some college football. Be sure to watch my beloved Miss State bullies get clobbered by Bama tonight. Of course the dawgs have won the last 2 and bama has not scored an offensive TD in 3 years on my bullies. Hmmmm........nah, no upset in the cards tonight. Maybe I will get rid of my razor blades.:(
 
A bailout is one thing a bridge loan to get over the hump until the unions
take over their healthcare might be approproate.
If GM goes under this will have a vast ripple effect on many types of business in the country. My former employer as of two weeks ago has
a lot of business with the auto industry, they make industrial lubricants.
What I find interesting now is that a few years back, GM was not paying their bills or they were very slow. Not sure what is going on now.
Early Retired Lubricant Chemist:
I was VRIPed out of the Global Matrix,
or some such nonsense by the new owners of my old company.
Old Mike
 
Nah, drinking coffee now getting ready for some college football. Be sure to watch my beloved Miss State bullies get clobbered by Bama tonight. Of course the dawgs have won the last 2 and bama has not scored an offensive TD in 3 years on my bullies. Hmmmm........nah, no upset in the cards tonight. Maybe I will get rid of my razor blades.:(


Hey, at least you didn't lose to VMI last night. Thought it couldn't get any worse :mad:
 
This says it all. How much debt should the rest of us take on to help big three auto workers with wages & benefits few of us enjoy plus pensions and retiree health care - while offering a product very few people want? And do you think the industry you're in will get a bailout? It's not impossible to be successful building automobiles, Toyota, Honda & Nissan aren't asking for a bailout...

Not to quibble, but a quick search reveals GM and Ford sold 301,557 cars and trucks in October, this being a 45% drop from October last year. So at least that many want their product...
 
The government should take over the auto makers. Wouldn't you like to own a government made car or truck ;) Imagine the commercials..
 
lol! At least they'd have good music in their trucks.
 
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