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Re: As God is my witness, I will never be in
Old 06-17-2006, 10:03 AM   #21
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Re: As God is my witness, I will never be in

OAP

Tell God you love her. Buy the Hummer. See Arizona.

And lest I forget -

Pssst! Wellesley!!!

heh heh heh heh heh heh - not to worry, party on dude. Bon Temps Rolliere.
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Re: As God is my witness, I will never be in
Old 06-17-2006, 11:31 AM   #22
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Re: As God is my witness, I will never be in

Quote:
Originally Posted by OldAgePensioner
the market again.

The last 2 weeks have proven that you could be wiped out quickly by some ignorant comments by a Fed Chief.* -100 days for two weeks just because some idiot decides to mumble.* That's what I hated about Greenspan.* He had little to say but every word was an "Omen" of doom.

I'm taking the big hit on my $1.2 mil after tax portfolio and going cash.* I will use 1/2 the money to buy an abode, buy furnishing, and a Hummer H2.* Buying in Arizona.* The rest will be put into an annuity that covers most living expenses.* Then I'll buy survivor supplies for years.

Tired of watching oil prices, commodity prices, the DJIA, NAS etc.

The 401k will stay in the market and most likely go to zero but if I leve to see 62, SSN will at least pay $1,500 a month.

The market sucks.
I agree! My IRA & 401K are down by 50K in last 30 days! OUCHIE!!!

Ready to sell the house and fully furnished as well, 1/2 of 1.2M prices it right for ya! Already got lottsa beans and rice in the pantry! Come on over.

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Re: As God is my witness, I will never be in
Old 06-17-2006, 06:19 PM   #23
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Re: As God is my witness, I will never be in

Unfortunately, OAP's investment needs are (probably) very different from most of ours. Viewed in that light, his decision makes a lot more sense.
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Re: As God is my witness, I will never be in
Old 06-17-2006, 06:53 PM   #24
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Re: As God is my witness, I will never be in

OAP, why not create your own equity-indexed annuity? Put your money in safe, short duration fixed income (treasuries, high grade corporates, GNMAs, etc.) and use some or all of the coupons to buy at the money or slightly out of the money call options on your choice of ETF. If the markets go up, you capture most of the gains. If the markets go down, you are only out the option premia. Not real tax efficient, a touch expensive, and a little fussy, but it might fit your needs.
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Re: As God is my witness, I will never be in
Old 06-17-2006, 07:22 PM   #25
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Re: As God is my witness, I will never be in

Lets see If I am following the logic
Market has gone done so your selling.
Home prices have gone up so your buying.
Not sure why the hummer fits in but if your buying new then you get 20% depreciation out the door.
Ok so maybe I am not following the logic ?
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Re: As God is my witness, I will never be in
Old 06-17-2006, 08:57 PM   #26
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Re: As God is my witness, I will never be in

OK, I started this year with almost exactly $2 mil, and up, up, up it went. Then A Fed Chairman opens his mouth for 30 seconds and I'm back to down about $150k.

Can these FED bank people please shut up.

That $150K was lost just due to some dude spouting.

I could have fed a lot of homeless with that money if he had just shut up.

Over and over again, my net worth suffers because the FED talks.

If I buy an abode (could be a cheap trailer, I buy a car that will last, I put my money into cash (CD/MM) )and then I can just let the Fed Chairman (whoever, he/she is ) run their stupid mouths without affecting me. They are never right and the just reek.
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Re: As God is my witness, I will never be in
Old 06-17-2006, 09:10 PM   #27
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Re: As God is my witness, I will never be in

Actually, it's even simpler.

If you outright, own your home, land, car, and major consumer products, and are all in cash earning interest, then your only worry is inflation.

No worrries from:
-Market being manipulated by constant excuses
-Incompetent Fed Chairman
-World events causing market fluctuations
-Gold/silver/platinum gyrations

Seems that you've eliminated most of the bad possibilities and are a slave only to inflation. But if inflation rises, so should your CD/MM interest.

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Re: As God is my witness, I will never be in
Old 06-17-2006, 09:12 PM   #28
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Re: As God is my witness, I will never be in

Quote:
Originally Posted by OldAgePensioner
Actually, it's even simpler.

If you outright,* own your home, land, car, and major consumer products, and are all in cash earning interest, then your only worry is inflation.

No worrries from:
-Market being manipulated by constant excuses
-Incompetent Fed Chairman
-World events causing market fluctuations
-Gold/silver/platinum gyrations

Seems that you've eliminated most of the bad possibilities and are a slave only* to inflation.* But if inflation rises, so should your CD/MM interest.

Even easier: buy a bunch of TIPS and other inflation-linked bonds and even inflation is not a problem. But of course, what you propose requires a lot of capital.
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Re: As God is my witness, I will never be in
Old 06-17-2006, 09:19 PM   #29
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Re: As God is my witness, I will never be in

Quote:
Originally Posted by brewer12345
Even easier: buy a bunch of TIPS and other inflation-linked bonds and even inflation is not a problem.* But of course, what you propose requires a lot of capital.

I agree here, $2 million minus the home and auto purchases invested in inflation linked products will allow for enough money for a real long time.

Unless your gonna miss the action of watching the stock markets ups and downs.
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Re: As God is my witness, I will never be in
Old 06-17-2006, 09:20 PM   #30
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Re: As God is my witness, I will never be in

OAP: *yikes! what were you holding to be down 7.5% YTD?
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Re: As God is my witness, I will never be in
Old 06-17-2006, 09:35 PM   #31
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Re: As God is my witness, I will never be in

d,
William Berstein's Four Pillars of Investing Portfolio.

Lat two weeks were a pretty good indication that it only takes a couple of really bad weeks to make things uncomfortable.
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Re: As God is my witness, I will never be in
Old 06-17-2006, 09:44 PM   #32
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Re: As God is my witness, I will never be in

d, not worth discussing. Preuvian cheery futures.

Market over the last to weeks has been fine, carry on.
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Re: As God is my witness, I will never be in
Old 06-17-2006, 10:06 PM   #33
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Re: As God is my witness, I will never be in

OAP wouldn't be OAP if he were planning on paying any heed to any of the fine suggestions presented above.

He hates cars, hates homeownership, wants to be in a good weather, liberal, walking friendly environment- yet he plans to leave SF and move to a bunglow in the Arizona desert?

Sounds like a plan for sure.

Here is the only investment advice he will ever need, but certainly will not follow:

Stay put. At least for the time being.

Continue to rent, a cheaper place if necessary.

Avoid car ownership.

Put the majority of your assets into TIPS of varying maturies.

Put the rest into 13 and 26 week T-bills. Extend maturies to a max of 3 years when the yield curve is again paying for this.

Turn off the TV, enjoy your walks.

Ha
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Re: As God is my witness, I will never be in
Old 06-17-2006, 10:16 PM   #34
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Re: As God is my witness, I will never be in

Ha,
I have not had a TV on for more than 45 minutes in this month.
Just ranting.
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Re: As God is my witness, I will never be in
Old 06-17-2006, 10:19 PM   #35
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Re: As God is my witness, I will never be in

But, this market is sucking big time and being in cash is pretty comfortable.
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Re: As God is my witness, I will never be in
Old 06-17-2006, 10:45 PM   #36
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Re: As God is my witness, I will never be in

OAP,
I have a simple solution to dealing with falling markets in a well-diversified portfolio: just don't look at your brokerage balances. Ignorance is bliss.

How would you know if they were up or down if you didn't look? Think about something else, go for a walk, make a new friend, cook a new dish, plant a new garden and promise yourself you'll check them again, say, at the end of the summer or maybe in the Fall.

I know it sounds naive or possibly communist, but it really works. We have these great web pages that calculate net worth up to the penny every day, and all they do is make us anxious and trigger-happy. Markets go up and down, and if you can learn to ignore a bit of volatility, you'll be able to ride them through to be a long-run winner. It's all a head game. Even if you remove all your volatility (at great cost in long run potential returns) you may just find the source of your financial anxiety has just moved on to another area. Win the game in your head and everything else will fall into place.
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Re: As God is my witness, I will never be in
Old 06-18-2006, 12:53 AM   #37
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Re: As God is my witness, I will never be in

Quote:
Originally Posted by ESRBob
OAP,
I have a simple solution to dealing with falling markets in a well-diversified portfolio: just don't look at your brokerage balances. Ignorance is bliss.

How would you know if they were up or down if you didn't look?
Kind of hard to not look when you are ER and pulling your income out of that portfolio. Are you suggesting making withdrawals without knowing whether there is anything in the account to withdraw?
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Re: As God is my witness, I will never be in
Old 06-18-2006, 01:50 AM   #38
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Re: As God is my witness, I will never be in

Quote:
Originally Posted by OldAgePensioner
Actually, it's even simpler.

If you outright, own your home, land, car, and major consumer products, and are all in cash earning interest, then your only worry is inflation.

No worrries from:
-Market being manipulated by constant excuses
-Incompetent Fed Chairman
-World events causing market fluctuations
-Gold/silver/platinum gyrations
But if your only worry is inflation, then the last 3 items on your list are some of your biggest worries!
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Re: As God is my witness, I will never be in
Old 06-18-2006, 07:15 AM   #39
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Re: As God is my witness, I will never be in

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hydroman
Kind of hard to not look when you are ER and pulling your income out of that portfolio. Are you suggesting making withdrawals without knowing whether there is anything in the account to withdraw?
I think what's implied here is having a balanced, diversified portfolio including a few years living expenses in cash/CD's. That way you can withdraw without worrying about what the market is doing at the moment.

Yep, it's very hard not to look. But with this arrangement it's easy not to sweat market gyrations.

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Re: As God is my witness, I will never be in
Old 06-18-2006, 07:44 AM   #40
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Re: As God is my witness, I will never be in

OAP,
If you more to worry about look into the 4 year presidential cycle stock market affect. It has been around for awhile.


http://www.financialsense.com/Market...2006/0523.html
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