Ask the "Expert"

[OldAgePensioner]

REW,
in the last election, the "furners" where I lived thought it would be a landslide for Lurch, but when I called home, they raved about W.

He is considered a real "JOKE +++" in Yurp.

Why can't the man just do his job. He had a realistic chance of being taken seriously.

Can you even imagine Chirac coming to a US G8 conference in the US and going kayaking just cause he's a good ole French dude who cant git enuf of kayakin.?

What a joke.

 

[Mr._johngalt]

On a day when I thought that Jacko Chiraco would be the biggest clown, the USA shines thru.  Jeesh, do we never get tired of embar-ass-ing the country.

Could a person, any person, just not "BIKE RIDE" while in the international spotlight.  What an idiot.

Does this guy never tire of being a fool?

It didn't stop Kerry from windsurfing or Dukakis from driving a tank.
When you are in the public eye 24/7, it's pretty tough not to do/say something
embarrassing. In fact, I submit that it can't be done. Even Jefferson had Sally Hemings and back then it took a week to get the news out into the
hinterlands.

JG

 

[OldAgePensioner]

Bush had a chance to be a real player at the G8. He blew it. Scrapped up idiot who nearly killed a policeman. Just really sad. Can you just imagine FDR representing us like DUBAYA BUBBA..?

 

[Honkie]

The Europeans consider him a JOKE of highest order??

Why, George, just simply why?  You have now confirmed yourself.

And yes, if he were in the Tour de France, OK.  But he is our President .

For Europe his visit is:  http://www.guardian.co.uk/cartoons/stevebell/0,7371,1521635,00.html

To add a little balance for the non-Eurocentric, the Guardian newspaper in the UK is historically a very left leaning paper.

I agree, though, that most Europeans do consider Bush a joke, and that will remain no matter what he does from here on in. Rightly or wrongly, his reputation is too well set to change much now.

 

[OldAgePensioner]

The question of the day:
Could this man, who surely knows he has image problems in the EU, not have subdued his evidently overwhelmingly desire to ride a mountain bike?

Too much to ask of a President. Too much. He could not have foregone it for just a day" Not just one day.

If his desire to ride mountain bikes is that much a part of his life, why run for another office, why ever leave the mountain bike trails, why GW, why do you even go to the Oval office.

Gd. The man just made himself a laughing stock. Chirac had grabbed that stage but, nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo, GW decided to out do him. Dam.

 

[BristolBane]

Bush bicycles because he's an exercise nut. He doesn't run anymore due to a knee injury so he bikes. It's just part of his day. So he ran into somebody.. big deal, the road was slick from rain.

If we're to believe that he and the U.S.A are so hated everywhere I'm sure this event doesn't make a bit of difference one way or the other.

 

[Mr._johngalt]

The question of the day:
Could this man, who surely knows he has image problems in the EU, not have subdued his evidently overwhelmingly desire to ride a mountain bike?

Too much to ask of a President.  Too much.  He could not have foregone it for just a day"  Not just one day.

If his desire to ride mountain bikes is that much a part of his life, why run for another office, why ever leave the mountain bike trails, why GW, why do you even go to the Oval office.

Gd.  The man just made himself a laughing stock.  Chirac had grabbed that stage but, nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo, GW decided to out do him.  Dam.

I know nothing of this incident, other than what is posted here.  Still
(and sadly) the above post makes some sense to me.

JG

 

[OldAgePensioner]

BristleBrain,
I suspect you do not read anything other than CNN?
Please do all of us a favor and broaden those horizons.

Bush seems to have been the only leader who arrived and attended to nothing other than his desire to ride a bike.

Most others were involved in the G8 conference on global issues.

Glad to see DUB got the headlines.

 

[haha]

Can you just imagine FDR representing us like DUBAYA BUBBA..?

Not riding a bike anyway. 
Ha

 

[OldAgePensioner]

Eggs actly.

Gee 8. I'll just sho'em by ridin my biek at hi speeds.

 

[BristolBane]

BristleBrain,
I suspect you do not read anything other than CNN?
Please do all of us a favor and broaden those horizons.

Bush seems to have been the only leader who arrived and attended to nothing other than his desire to ride a bike.

Most others were involved in the G8 conference on global issues.

Glad to see DUB got the headlines.

You don't know what you're talking about. Go ahead and have your daily two minutes hate if it makes you feel better.

 

[OldAgePensioner]

BristolBane,
Read any European newspaper and you may want to erase that last post.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/cartoons/stevebell/0,7371,1517810,00.html

 

[haha]

To briefly return to the original topic of this thread, no way this this young couple with 3 kids have enough money for a secure retirement.

There is a lot of survivor bias on this board. I quit with 2 young kids and not enough money. Everyone thought I was stupid; and I was stupid. Just because luck bails you out of a stupid decision doesn't retroactively make it a good decision. So a lot of people may have done something like this; but only those who made it are posting here. Also, the last 25 years have been pretty sweet overall.

And that ignores the possibility that there might be a liar or two around. 

There is a great article in a recent New Yorker about some maniac who sailed a raft to Europe from Maine as I recall. He made it. But now he is lost in the Pacific. Anything can happen one off. But over the long haul, the percentages tend to grind on.

Ha

 

[eridanus]

They sell their house. They buy another house in Topeka, free and clear, with $200,000 of their profit. They invest the other $300k. That brings their total income-producing assets to $1.35MM.

At 4%, that's $54,000. If they can't raise a family of 3 with $54,000, and no mortgage...how does the rest of the nation do it?

 

[moghopper]

Bush seems to have been the only leader who arrived and attended to nothing other than his desire to ride a bike.

We're all breathing a sigh of relief that we didn't send you as our representative to the "Early Retirement 8" conference.

 

[preben]

Good post eridanus!
For us non-Americans it is often chocking to see the numbers mentioned here being needed for FIRE! 2-3-4 mill$ - mind blowing..... I presume this board consists mostly of the "elite" of the US as no average American will even do traditionel retirement with more than half mill $!

As for Bush; he biked, he fell - so what? Cheers!

 

[haha]

They sell their house. They buy another house in Topeka, free and clear, with $200,000 of their profit. They invest the other $300k. That brings their total income-producing assets to $1.35MM.

At 4%, that's $54,000. If they can't raise a family of 3 with $54,000, and no mortgage...how does the rest of the nation do it?

I am going to make the possibly generous assumption that this is a serious post, not just smoke blowing.

Comments- the rest of the nation for the most part do not have 3 kids; they are not buying health insurance; and they are not living what many educated people would consider a middle class life.

Two school teachers with a few years seniority make $80,000 or so, have excellent health, dental and retirement benefits. Most of them spend it without being in any way frivolous. Their salary income will increase each year, not topping out till they reach $120,000 or more in 2005 dollars. Unless one of them becomes a pricipal or administrator, in wich case they make more.  And, they have on average fewer than 2 children. This is a baseline middle class life.

Or, in your book are school teachers upper class?

Do the math, there just is no margin in the numbers you give. And don't forget, this Mom and Dad may look at a very considerable drawdown due to equity market weakness, even if they do eschew middle class life and live on the 4% you suggest.

So one evening they are sitting there  down to $850,000. They still have three young kids. Think maybe there may be some family tension at this point? Maybe it's OK for a single person to adopt voluntary poverty, but maybe not parents.

Many people here are single. Others are married with working spouses. Still others have good pensions either already paying out or on the way. Some are older, and feel positive about drawdowns, supplementing with junk picking, etc. And others are several of the above.

I think you will find that many of those who fit none of these categories tend to be more conservative when handing out advice and commentary.

I say avoid easily foreseeable problems, and work some more. For heavens sake, they are 42 and 34!

ha

 

[haha]

For us non-Americans it is often chocking to see the numbers mentioned here being needed for FIRE! 2-3-4 mill$ - mind blowing..... I presume this board consists mostly of the "elite" of the US as no average American will even do traditionel retirement with more than half mill $!

Europeans buy a lot of security with their taxes. We buy wars, prisons, and non-middle class welfare. As to traditional retirement of average Americans, that is very different form ER. First, there is social security, maybe pension for at least half the population, no kids left, and not so long to live!

In your own case, you are in a low cost foreigh country. You like it, so that is great. But for many, cheap foreign retirement would be a type of economically motivated expatriation. Middle aged guys might like to hang around SE Asia, but I am not so sure about the average middle aged American wife.

Really, I don't care what anyone does. For something to argue about, though, it beats politics!

Ha

 

[preben]

Haha - I think the main issue here is the definition of "middle class" - spending $80k is middle class in the US!? I thought the median household income in the USA was around $30k?

State schools are not expensive - even with 3 kids. As for health insurance I am certainly not an expert but after what I have seen at the boards it can be held at a resonable level if on shops around and accepts a higher deductable.

As for the 4%; it is based on the worst scenario in history from an undiversified portfolio(US largecaps+bonds only) and blindly taking the 4%+infl nomatter WHAT happened in the market

All 3   signal a place where we should be able to do better.

Cheers!

I am going to make the possibly generous assumption that this is a serious post, not just smoke blowing.

Comments- the rest of the nation for the most part do not have 3 kids; they are not buying health insurance; and they are not living what many educated people would consider a middle class life.

Two school teachers with a few years seniority make $80,000 or so, have excellent health, dental and retirement benefits. Most of them spend it without being in any way frivolous. Their salary income will increase each year, not topping out till they reach $120,000 or more in 2005 dollars. Unless one of them becomes a pricipal or administrator, in wich case they make more.  And, they have on average fewer than 2 children. This is a baseline middle class life.

Or, in your book are school teachers upper class?

Do the math, there just is no margin in the numbers you give. And don't forget, this Mom and Dad may look at a very considerable drawdown due to equity market weakness, even if they do eschew middle class life and live on the 4% you suggest.

So one evening they are sitting there  down to $850,000. They still have three young kids. Think maybe there may be some family tension at this point? Maybe it's OK for a single person to adopt voluntary poverty, but maybe not parents.

Many people here are single. Others are married with working spouses. Still others have good pensions either already paying out or on the way. Some are older, and feel positive about drawdowns, supplementing with junk picking, etc. And others are several of the above.

I think you will find that many of those who fit none of these categories tend to be more conservative when handing out advice and commentary.

I say avoid easily foreseeable problems, and work some more. For heavens sake, they are 42 and 34!

ha

 

[preben]

Good points haha - I do certainly not advocate cheap foreign retirement - that is for the few only. Personally I ALSO have my FIRE-base in my Scandinavien home country. I think many Americans could see themselves with 2 cheaper homes (of which one abroad in a sunny place) than one expensive.
The average middle aged American wife apparently prefer the Dominican republic after what I hear .
Cheers!

Europeans buy a lot of security with their taxes. We buy wars, prisons, and non-middle class welfare. As to traditional retirement of average Americans, that is very different form ER. First, there is social security, maybe pension for at least half the population, no kids left, and not so long to live!

In your own case, you are in a low cost foreigh country. You like it, so that is great. But for many, cheap foreign retirement would be a type of economically motivated expatriation. Middle aged guys might like to hang around SE Asia, but I am not so sure about the average middle aged American wife.

Really, I don't care what anyone does. For something to argue about, though, it beats politics!

Ha

 

[haha]

The average middle aged American wife apparently prefer the Dominican republic after what I hear  .
Cheers!

Right-or Cuba or Jamaica. Those gals like merengue, salsa and reggae! 

Ha

 

[preben]

Ariba! Caramba!

haha; as to your story (retirering too early with too little?) could you give a bit more info as to your experience? Stuff like:

Did you calculate the nos before or just jump? Did your expenses become much higher than planned? Why? Did you decide to send to kids to expensive schools? How was the emotional ride? What saved you? Did you take any cost cutting measures yourself? What was your estimated portfolio composition and return?

I think that the biggest FIRE worry is to run out of money and having to jump back into the hamster wheel after having tasted the ultimate freedom - so your experiences would be very usefull. Cheers!

Right-or Cuba or Jamaica. Those gals like merengue, salsa and reggae! 

Ha

 

[unclemick]

Give a man a hammer. In the the modern age we are prisoners of spreadsheets. Experts, da media, and mere plebians who want to retire have to calc the best we can.

Below the radar - I live in a deliberately out of the way place where people raise families just fine on less than $50/day - not the stuff of media attention.

I visit a lot of people who - heh, heh - make 10 -20 k a year - but if you could transplant their house, scenery, piers, and docks to one of the bubble locations - RE wise they could sell and retire the rest of their lives. Since I'm talking commercial fishmen - I'll leave it up to your imagination - what is tied up in boats and equipment.

Unfortunately - gentrification has picked up in the last five years.

 

[Martha]

I'm with HaHa on the couple waiting to retire. They are young with three children. This substantially increases their risks. It is hard to compare a family making a $54,000 wage with one getting $54,000 off of investments. One example is college. The $54,000 wage earner will probably get good financial aid. The familiy with the million plus in assets might not. What if there is a divorce down the road? What about the issues involved in buying health insurance? What if one of the kids has asthma or another chronic disease? This could bust the budget pretty fast. Too many variables, too many chances of something going wrong. And the longer they are out of the job market, the tougher it will be to get back in.

 

[Sillysal]

I guess that I am much poorer than I thought. My family seemed middle class to me and my parents have never had a combined income over $50k. I went to college on scholarships and student loans, as are my younger borthers currently. My fiance and I are making $65k combined, which is almost twice the median HHI in this county, and we are actually living on less than $25k/year after taxes and saving, and I don't feel poor.