Bob_Smith
That means that the TIPS are self liquidating via their premiums. You do not have to sell them. Almost all of the difference between their 2.5% yield to maturity and that 3.8% that you have in mind will come from the smaller amount that you get back at maturity ($1000 plus inflation at maturity) as compared to the premium price that you have to pay.
I don't agree with this.
As the TIPs mature, the market price (which is currently at a premium to the accrued principal) will converge with the accrued principal value. Assuming continued inflation, the accrued principal value will continue to increase all the while. So the market value will experience some fluctuations, but on the whole will probably continue to increase (at less than the inflation rate) until it coincides with the accrued principal value of the bonds when they mature.
The annual interest payments are determined by the fixed coupon rate times the accrued principal. Thus, the interest payments will increase somewhat every year, but not enough to sustain an inflation-adjusted withdrawal rate of 3.8%. In order to do that, it will be necessary to liquidate some TIPs each year to supplement the interest payments. The maximum inflation-adjusted withdrawal rate that could be sustained without liquidating TIPs would be the current yield, which would be around 3% in this example.
Since the maximum term available with TIPs is about 30 years (on the secondary market) even they cannot guarantee a particular real rate of return for 40 years. However, given the uncertainty inherent in any projections that far into the future, it is probably reasonable to assume that the real rate of return on TIPs will still be 2.5% in 30 years.
According to FIRECalc, withdrawing 3.8% per year from a portfolio of 100% TIPs paying 2.5% has a 79% chance of surviving 40 years (assuming zero expenses). While I think that FIRECalc's means of creating "synthetic" returns for TIPs during the years before they existed have a bit of an optimistic bias, I'd say that that's about as good an estimate as one can get. I would note, however, that adding stocks to the portfolio substantially increases its chances of success over that long a time period.
I hope that everyone's turkey dinner is easier to digest than this