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Old 10-04-2008, 10:23 PM   #21
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A few other "asset classes" I forgot:

My I bonds are currently paying almost 8%, hopefully will adjust higher in November.

Prepaying the mortgage: 5.75% (since the other rates of return I posted are pre-tax, so is this one).

As for the poster who said Wellesley isn't an asset class...you need to get some religion.
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Old 10-05-2008, 02:45 PM   #22
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I agree that cash, including I-Bonds is an asset class and this year it has been my best performer, but as part of a balanced diversified portfolio I don't move loads of money from one asset class to another to chase the best sector.

Looking over the last 3 years my cash asset class has returned 4.25%/year compared with my total investments of 2%/year.

However, I think that is about as good as it gets with cash / I-Bonds. My 5 year portfolio returns are 6.5%/year, 10 year is 6%/yr and 13 year return is 8%/yr. Hardly stunning but I don't intend to make any AA changes in light of a bad year.

The above figures include 2008 ytd of -11%/yr which so far is the same as the return I had in 2002, which is my worst year in 13 years I have been investing.
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Old 10-11-2008, 09:22 AM   #23
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Update: Here are updated YTD returns in bold to reflect last weeks carnage. If you are not of a strong constitution, I urge you to look away.

Large cap: -24% -38%
Mid cap: -29% -42%
Small cap: -20% -33%
Value: -21% -37%
Growth: -25% -36%
Pssst...Wellesley: -8% -15% (the unkindest cut of all!)

Developed international: -31% -44%
Emerging international: -40% -52%

High yield bonds: -11% -19%
Real estate: -11% -19%
Precious metals and mining: -40% -50%
Market neutral: -5% -7%
Commodities (DJP or PCRDX): -14% -25%
Pure-play gold (GLD): 0% -2%
Pure-play oil (USO): 0% -14%

Prime money market fund: +2% +2%
Intermediate term treasuries: +6% +5%
TIPS: +3% -3%
Total bond market: +1% -1%

And some of the other asset classes that were suggested:
I-bonds: +4%
Prepay mortgage: +6%
GNMA: +2%
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Old 10-11-2008, 09:30 AM   #24
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Soup, thanks for the update - i think.
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Old 10-11-2008, 09:59 AM   #25
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Interesting reading - thanks.

I have a generous slab of I-bonds as a "volatility parachute", although at -19% ytd it doesn't feel like it is slowing my descent too much
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Old 10-11-2008, 10:31 AM   #26
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Interesting reading - thanks.

I have a generous slab of I-bonds as a "volatility parachute", although at -19% ytd it doesn't feel like it is slowing my descent too much
I don't understand. How can a gov't I-Bond be down? I'm holding a ton of individual I-bonds..They all have a fixed rate..Even with zero inflation I would expect them to add the interest..
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Old 10-11-2008, 10:35 AM   #27
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I think he means he's -19% overall. ibonds dont decrease in value. TIPS will decrease in value if the CPI is negative, but IIRC ibonds dont.
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Old 10-11-2008, 10:47 AM   #28
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I think he means he's -19% overall. ibonds dont decrease in value. TIPS will decrease in value if the CPI is negative, but IIRC ibonds dont.
Exactly right. Overall down by -19%. Cash (including I-Bonds) is now 13% of portfolio as the other asset classes have lost value.
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Old 10-25-2008, 11:41 AM   #29
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Here are updated YTD returns through 10/24. Oh, how we long for death's sweet embrace!

Large cap: -38%
Mid cap: -46%
Small cap: -40%
Value: -38%
Growth: -39%
Pssst...Wellesley: -16%

Developed international: -48%
Emerging international: -61%
International bonds (BEGBX): -10%

High yield bonds: -22%
Real estate: -41%
Precious metals and mining: -63%
Market neutral: -6%
Commodities (DJP or PCRDX): -32%
Pure-play gold (GLD): -13%
Pure-play oil (USO): -30%

Prime money market fund: +2%
Intermediate term treasuries: +5%
TIPS: -6%
Total bond market: -1%

And some of the other asset classes that were suggested:
I-bonds: +4%
Prepay mortgage: +6%
GNMA: +3%
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Old 10-25-2008, 01:54 PM   #30
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Oh, how we long for death's sweet embrace!
Too late. According to those numbers almost everybody already got killed...
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Old 10-25-2008, 02:20 PM   #31
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One thing about Philip Greenspun (and mind you, I'm a fan of his), he has the most remarkably gauche habit of "casually" rubbing everyone's noses in his wealth and materialistic snobbery. He can barely start a paragraph without some variant of "After a recent flight in my brand-new $2.5M personal jet, which I paid an extra $500,000 to jump the line for, I happened upon a commoner..."

I'm jesting to a degree, since Philip is self-aware on this point (?), but it is a bit annoying.
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Old 10-25-2008, 06:19 PM   #32
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TIPS: -6%
There was 6% deflation this year?
Must be from housing.
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Old 10-25-2008, 06:29 PM   #33
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Even worster - Saint's are in the cellar so staying home to watch tv is painful between football and Mr Market.

Rumor has it - the Pat's have a good football team.

heh heh heh - hormonally speaking I'm trying to fight off the urge to buy stocks and spend my mad money on retirement. .
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Old 10-25-2008, 06:54 PM   #34
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There was 6% deflation this year?
Must be from housing.
This is a joke?
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Old 10-25-2008, 07:19 PM   #35
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yes.
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Old 10-25-2008, 08:46 PM   #36
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American Century Target Maturities Trust: 2015, BTFTX

Year to 9/30/08: 4.96%; 12 Month to 9/30/08: 10.43%

I bought a lump sum of it 6/13/90--it was my first attempt to balance out of 100% equities, my average annual return to 9/30/08: 10.13%

Sold my junk bonds and international stock funds last year to set up buckets for retirement, moved them into CDs and a Ginnie Mae fund.

Of course, my stocks funds are doing the same as everyone elses: Still own a large cap. and an SP 500.

Hope youre right, CFB, that we are looking at five years.
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Old 10-26-2008, 11:33 AM   #37
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I forgot to add: the beatings will continue until investor morale improves.
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Old 11-19-2008, 09:03 PM   #38
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I got tired of updating all those negative numbers, each more negative than the last time I looked at them. Here's the summary: YTD performance for all Vanguard funds averaged across the fund types as they've defined them:

Money Market - Taxable +2.2%
Money Market - Tax-Exempt +2.0%
Bond - Tax-Exempt -2.2%
Bond - Taxable -2.4%
Balanced -32.4%
Stock - General -41.6%
Stock - Aggressive -48.5%
Stock - Sector -50.2%
International -52.9%
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Old 11-20-2008, 12:05 AM   #39
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My largest asset is my I - Bonds..I have many paying 8.53%..Wish I had more at that rate..
That's a great rate. Our I-bonds are paying about 6%.
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Old 11-20-2008, 12:07 AM   #40
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I got tired of updating all those negative numbers, each more negative than the last time I looked at them. Here's the summary: YTD performance for all Vanguard funds averaged across the fund types as they've defined them:

Money Market - Taxable +2.2%
Money Market - Tax-Exempt +2.0%
Bond - Tax-Exempt -2.2%
Bond - Taxable -2.4%
Balanced -32.4%
Stock - General -41.6%
Stock - Aggressive -48.5%
Stock - Sector -50.2%
International -52.9%
Practically all are losers when inflation is factored in.
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