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Old 04-13-2014, 01:01 PM   #61
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Except it isn't really meaningful/useful to assign a 'success rate' to a plan that varies the withdraws to assure success. That is just a self-fulfilling act.



Mathematically, a 10% WR would also assure 100% success, as long as you make that WR a % of remaining portfolio.



Most people would put 'success rate' in the context of supporting an initial spending amount, inflation adjusted. Perhaps with some other stated 'adjustments'.



-ERD50

Forget this discussion. Watch the Cubs, you'll improve your chances. I wore my cap yesterday (hope springs eternal) and there were smiles all around
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Old 04-13-2014, 01:16 PM   #62
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Forget this discussion. Watch the Cubs, you'll improve your chances. I wore my cap yesterday (hope springs eternal) and there were smiles all around
Yup. A 100% success rate and the Cubs winning the World Series are a lot alike.


Some plans are well made but things still end badly. Others are poorly thought but still work. After the plan, life happens, and there are no guarantees. Two sayings come to mind

Der mentsh trakht un Got lakht.

In theory there is no difference between theory and practice. In practice there is.
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Old 04-13-2014, 01:23 PM   #63
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My plan goes out to age 95 and in each average return scenario, something will be left for the kids. I think returns over 3% will leave a bigger pot than what we started with.

My never married sister will also leave a sizable pot to the nieces and nephews if her unneeded funds grow as she hopes. I think she'd like to leave them 6 figures each.
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Old 04-13-2014, 01:24 PM   #64
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Yup. A 100% success rate and the Cubs winning the World Series are a lot alike.





Some plans are well made but things still end badly. Others are poorly thought but still work. After the plan, life happens, and there are no guarantees. Two sayings come to mind



Der mentsh trakht un Got lakht.



In theory there is no difference between theory and practice. In practice there is.


Ha!

Some very nice people rent us a beach house in the summer. They are originally from Edwardsville, IL, which is StL way.

I told them "you're a Cards fan if you want to win, you're a Cubs fan if you want to have fun". They said "hmmmmpf!". (but with a wink)
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Old 04-13-2014, 01:44 PM   #65
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Spending to zero or leaving a legacy...

We took some time to talk with our kids so they have some idea of what to expect. Our plans were based on living to age 84, as a recently as a few years ago, that looked to be sustainable, with some room to maneuver, just in case. They're aware and comfortable with what we're doing, and have come to appreciate what we call frugality, but others may think of as "cheapness". The monies we have saved through not gifting or paying their bills, will likely pay off in the "end".

The last two years have made a difference, not so much in our available finances, but in what has happened to our expenses. I've posted in some other threads about a "Phase II" in lifetime planning for expenses in the later years. Now that we're getting nearer to age 80, the concept has even more meaning.

I'll back up a bit to compare my thoughts at age 60 to those of today. A bit of a reality check. It was invinceability then. A world of exploration of places,hobbies, sports, social life and general interest thing that I never had time for before.

And so it was... Everything we hoped to do, we did. The greatest part of all this, is that we can still do whatever we want. the money isn't a problem... our health isn't a problem, though we have the normal aches and pains of people our age.

So what's the difference? Basically we don't have as many "wants", or "have to's". We're not planning the trips, the parties, the "fixing up" of the house, the new cars, etc, and many times, staying home and eating frozen pizza is a lot more comfortable than going out to the local restaurant. Travel miles are less than a third of what they were 10 years ago. We don't eat as much food, and have enough clothing and household goods to last another 20 years.
The beverage bill has gone down enough to support the single 4PM martini, and we haven't been to a lounge or bar in 15 years.

Lest you think that a boring life, it's our life, and "thank you" we're quite happy. We do have some 90 year old neighbors who still go on international cruises and eat out almost every night, and bless them for that. It's not for us.

So how do you figure an end game?... Our genes run out @ age 80 maternally and about 53 paternally. Both families, almost exactly the same... both of us had brothers who died at 50 and 53. We don't consider this a part of the plan, but an interesting side note.

So we live on SS and savings with a limted nest egg. The nice part is it's growing and we feel safe.

So, while I try not to give advice, next week, I'll be talking with one of my sons and his DW who are 55, and think they can't retire. I know his financial situation, and they'll be very safe, with substantial pensions and savings. We'll talk about the expectations and realities of being older. I want them to have the happiness that we've had, with more than a quarter century of retirement, and not spend the next 10 years in stressful positions. At age 55, the safety cushion is the ability to go back to being gainfully employed.

"At the End" is an interesting expression. To do it all over again, if I were 60, I think I'd spend a lot of thinking about what I might expect to be doing at age 80 and later.
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Old 04-14-2014, 04:03 AM   #66
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The saver mentality is so ingrained it will be difficult to spend it down to zero.
Much as I wish I were different, I suspect there will be much more left at the end than there should be! A lifetime of squirreling away does not change with ER, if anything the impulse gets stronger!
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Old 04-14-2014, 09:28 AM   #67
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My plan goes out to age 95 and in each average return scenario, something will be left for the kids. I think returns over 3% will leave a bigger pot than what we started with.

My never married sister will also leave a sizable pot to the nieces and nephews if her unneeded funds grow as she hopes. I think she'd like to leave them 6 figures each.
Where can I sign up to be a niece or nephew?
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Old 04-14-2014, 04:42 PM   #68
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Well DD is only 9yo and I would give her both my kidneys in a heart beat so money means nothing. I would very much like to leave her anything and everything I can. However, because of circumstances life I'm at the back of the pack in a mad dash to get to the ER finish line in the next 10 years. If there's anything left over it's all her's, she's the beneficiary on all my accounts except one account where I recently added my gf (she doesn't know) because she deserves something for putting up with me

I just wish I had enough to give to everyone close to me and a few charities
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Old 04-14-2014, 05:40 PM   #69
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Single and no kids, if there's anything left it will be used to set up a scholarship fund for math and science students from my high school.
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Old 04-16-2014, 08:13 AM   #70
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I always liked the advice in "Die Broke" book. "Your last check should be to the mortician, and it should bounce."
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Old 04-16-2014, 09:04 AM   #71
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I always liked the advice in "Die Broke" book. "Your last check should be to the mortician, and it should bounce."
That might be a 'cute' little bit of advice, but how does one plan for that?

And if you can't realistically plan for it, is it really 'good' advice?

What's your plan?

-ERD50
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Old 04-16-2014, 06:42 PM   #72
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That might be a 'cute' little bit of advice, but how does one plan for that?

And if you can't realistically plan for it, is it really 'good' advice?

What's your plan?

-ERD50
Actually, to answer the OP, I plan on having a safety margin, which I will pass to DW, assuming she survives me. I have several pensions, plus social security, which cover our day to day expenses right now, but will cease upon my death. I have just started RMD which I am using as my withdrawal rate, and this should ensure that I have the safety margin for DW. She will pass on anything left to our children/grandchildren. If DW passes before me, then our heirs probably will get more, although I will try my best to make the last check bounce.
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Old 04-16-2014, 07:34 PM   #73
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My planning is to NOT be short on funds. Dying with a $0 balance would be okay, likely we'll leave a bit to the kids to fight over.

My planning horizon is out to age 100, with my 401k distribution driving the balance to 0 at that age. Got other annuity-style income sources, some with 100% survivor, so it's really a sloppy plan.

Point is, the kids should plan on supporting themselves, anything from the Butcher estate should be considered "lagniappe"...
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