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Old 01-13-2013, 12:19 PM   #141
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Well, for most people, active investing is a losers game. No argument there. I wouldn't be surprised if less than 10 % of active investors actually return a profit. The difference is that those 10 % spent substantial time and effort to put together a profitable strategy, after likely having been burned a few times.

I can throw out hard numbers, but you still won't be convinced. I calculated that I'm up 16% from Aug 1, 2011. VTIAX is down 7 % from Aug 1, 2011. How many examples do you want?
If you have this kind of track record, why aren't you running a hedge fund or prop trading desk somewhere?
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Old 01-13-2013, 01:35 PM   #142
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Originally Posted by Texas Proud View Post
Just as an FYI.... I used to work with a guy who left where I worked to go work at Enron.... he said Enron is a no brainer investment and was putting a lot of money in the stock... he was smart, and also knew about risks, but it was working for him at the time... he lost a lot because it was in the 401(k) which got locked up when the stock started the dive (who knows if he would have sold because he was a true believer)....

All people here are saying is you are missing the risk/reward ratio in this investment style... it has worked for you so far, like the Enron investment for my friend... until it hits the bad cycle... (and I am not trying to compare your risk with a big investment in one stock, this is just an example of someone saying it is a great investment method when others say it is a potential disaster).....
OK, thanks for that, Texas. I'm going to beef up my risk/reward assessment method. (Believe it or not, I do have one but I also have a very high tolerance for risk.)


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I also have not seen anybody tell you not to do what you are doing.... (heck, most say good luck to you).... just that you seem to be coming here telling smart people that YOUR way is so much better than their way.... that is like saying everybody here is dumb unless they do as you do....
That's not me! That's vxp036000. Check back my posts (Alex in Virginia) and you'll see.


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My last comment I got from an Eco professor when I asked him to get me some talking points to someone who believed the gold standard would actually work... he asked me 'does he really believe in the gold standard'... I said 'yes'.... he said 'there is nothing you can say to change his mind' and he walked off..... SO, like my friend who believes in the gold standard, you believe in what you are doing and NOBODY will be able to change your mind.... you drank the cool-aid and will defend it to the end...
I certainly hope that's not true. It would negate the reason I started this thread. I have answered people's questions as to what I do and how I do it, and I've done it in enough detail so that people can/could come back and rebut what I've said. It's just unfortunate -- particularly for me -- that most posters haven't put enough reasoned argument into their posts to prove their points to me. Declarative statements by themselves should not be expected to be persuasive.

Thanks again, Texas. Honestly.

Alex in Virginia
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Old 01-13-2013, 01:42 PM   #143
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So your "high-dividend" screen is used to find candidate stocks to day trade? Now, I'm even more confused.
You are confused because vxp036000, the poster you responded to, is not the OP and is not the one that presented a high-dividend yield investment approach to discuss and debate. I am, Alex in Virginia.

VXP036000 is the day trader, and what he does and says has absolutely nothing to do with my investing approach. Nothing.

Don't feel bad. A LOT of people participating in this thread have done the same thing.

Alex in Virginia
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Old 01-13-2013, 01:43 PM   #144
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Originally Posted by Alex in Virginia View Post
I certainly hope that's not true. It would negate the reason I started this thread. I have answered people's questions as to what I do and how I do it, and I've done it in enough detail so that people can/could come back and rebut what I've said. It's just unfortunate -- particularly for me -- that most posters haven't put enough reasoned argument into their posts to prove their points to me. Declarative statements by themselves should not be expected to be persuasive.

Thanks again, Texas. Honestly.

Alex in Virginia
If you are not a troll, you could make a great case study in a group psychology class on how to really annoy people, while maintaining a passive facade. If you had walked into a bar rather than into this very tame group, you would already be back outside.

Congrats on that. However good or horrible your stock method is, you have how to be annoying down pat.
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Old 01-13-2013, 02:03 PM   #145
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So you basically DRIP dividends, hopefully spread across multiple companies / sectors? I've been thinking about doing the something similar with the excessive cash I have accumulating nothing in a bank. I'd be scared to touch high yield bonds; it seems a little risky.
I don't REALLY understand what you are positing here, but... just to clarify a few things.

I do not DRIP dividends. I take them as cash and reinvest them in the best opportunity available at the time.

When I titled this thread, I assumed folks would read carefully my original post so they would see that by "high yield" I meant primarily high DIVIDEND yield, with high yield bonds a secondary component of my approach and portfolio. Obviously, in hindsight, my bad. The thread's title has confused a lot of people.

High dividend yielding stocks are not suitable for short-term trading. You've got to buy them based on an informed judgment that the company in question is very strongly likely to continue paying its dividends over the long term (or, at least, the 1-2 year medium term).

This is even truer for high-yield bonds. Most of them are NOT going to be liquid enough to trade. And, any way, you're going to be buying them from a dealer at "retail" and when you want to get out of them, you're going to be selling them back to the dealer at "wholesale." NOT GOOD. When I buy a bond, I buy it to hold it to maturity. That's the only way I have found to properly profit from buying such bonds.

Finally, if you want to get some idea of how risky a high-yield bond THAT YOU WOULD HOLD TO MATURITY really is, just drill down into the Moody's report on the company and the bond issue. You're going to find that bonds with the same credit rating are actually miles apart in their riskiness, depending on each bond's expectable percent recovery in case of default and the discount at which each bond is selling for.

As an aside, as the OP on this thread, I've got to tell you that your on-again, off-again hijacking of the thread has really created communication problems for me. You should have started your own thread.

Alex in Virginia
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Old 01-13-2013, 02:09 PM   #146
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Originally Posted by Alex in Virginia View Post

[addressed to vxp03600] As an aside, as the OP on this thread, I've got to tell you that your on-again, off-again hijacking of the thread has really created communication problems for me. You should have started your own thread.
I believe Alex has made a statement we can all agree with.
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Old 01-13-2013, 02:13 PM   #147
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Your thread has been hijacked by another troll, so you are getting some of his static as well as your own.

I am not angry or hostile, but my patience is being tried. It is becoming clear that you are some kind of daytrader, which 99.99999% of the people on this board are not. I personally am a dyed in the wool deep value investor and my holding periods are usually measured in years. I think we have little to discuss, given that neither of us is likely to convert the other. Good luck and watch your six: if you make a mistake the losses are all yours.
It's vxp036000 that's the day trader, not me.

If you take the time to check back on some -- or any -- of my posts (posts by Alex in Virginia), you'll see soon enough.

And I've got to say this, Brewer. Again, you respond but again you shed absolutely no light on what you do to evaluate companies, what criteria you look at, or where your buy/no buy thresholds are -- whether based on company financials or a risk-reward assessment or whatever.

But that's okay. I'm done waiting.

Alex in Virginia
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Old 01-13-2013, 02:27 PM   #148
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To both vxp036000 and Alex -

I would be interested to see your results after you've been doing this for 10 or 15 years, and see them in comparison to the results from the same period for -

a) a passive portfolio consisting of low-cost index funds 60/35/5 or similar ratio, and
b) some of the more actively-managed portfolios from notable board members here.

Neither of you need to prove yourself to anyone on this board, but that does look as if that is what you're trying to do, both of you.

Major Tom,

I actually started this thread to see if someone could prove me wrong, not to prove myself. Why? Like I said in my OP, 6 financial advisors have failed to provide me with a logical chain of reasoning as to why what I do won't work. (Closest thing I got was one of them telling me I had not done it long enough to tell.)

But I still wonder that getting very good returns from a portfolio should be this simple. And I thought this forum would be a very good place to get constructive criticism. And some of it has been.

And BTW, as far as I'm concerned it's definitely not a competition -- i.e who is getting the biggest return, who has the biggest you-know-what, etc. For me, it's a question of having a return that meets my needs and my goals. That's all.

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Old 01-13-2013, 02:36 PM   #149
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It's possible I may have lumped you together with vxp036000 in my head and misjudged you Alex. If that's the case, I apologize.

Your subject title probably wasn't the best choice, given that you are a new member and no-one here knows you well enough to understand where you are coming from. Something along the lines of "Input Wanted On My Investment Strategy" might have been better. The combination of your title and vxp036000's hijacking haven't helped.

Anyway, I'm a passive investor without the knowledge or desire to pursue a different approach, so I really have no business in this thread.
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Old 01-13-2013, 02:37 PM   #150
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If you are not a troll, you could make a great case study in a group psychology class on how to really annoy people, while maintaining a passive facade. If you had walked into a bar rather than into this very tame group, you would already be back outside.

Congrats on that. However good or horrible your stock method is, you have how to be annoying down pat.
I don't think you are talking about me (Alex in Virginia). If you are, I would appreciate it if you would refer by # in the thread to which of my posts (posts by Alex in Virginia) have annoyed you so I can review them and see what I can do.

And please, don't take the easy way out with a non-response such as "all of them", "take your pick", etc.

Thanks.

Alex in Virginia
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Old 01-13-2013, 02:38 PM   #151
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Originally Posted by Alex in Virginia View Post
You are confused because vxp036000, the poster you responded to, is not the OP and is not the one that presented a high-dividend yield investment approach to discuss and debate. I am, Alex in Virginia.

VXP036000 is the day trader, and what he does and says has absolutely nothing to do with my investing approach. Nothing.

Don't feel bad. A LOT of people participating in this thread have done the same thing.

Yep.

I'm late to this thread and just invested almost 15 minutes reading the whole thing........ I think reading the thread straight through highlights the confusion that is taking place.

The OP is Alex who wanted comments on his high yield bond and high yield stock investing style. Another poster, who likely should have started his own thread, VXP036000 jumped in talking about having a portion of his portfolio set aside for short term equity trading where he says he is doing very well.

Alex and VXP036000 are being confused and comments misdirected in many cases.


Alex - You seem to understand the risks you're assuming with your committment to a high yield / high div investment approach. Someone wins the lottery despite the tough odds and it might be you. Or it might not. You sound like a big boy who will deal with the consequences as necessary. Good luck and enjoy!


VXP036000 - Your strategy, when separated from Alex's and looked at alone, isn't that unusual even here on this board. I too set aside a portion of my RE portfolio for short term equity trading. I'm glad you have been enjoying some success and wish you the best. Like everyone who actively trades a portion of their portfolio, you'll likely experience good times and bad times and I'm sure you're ready to deal with both. Good luck.

If you'd like a focused discussion on short term equity trading, why not start your own thread instead of injecting your unrelated comments into this thread on high yield / high div investments that Alex started?
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Old 01-13-2013, 02:48 PM   #152
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Yep.

I'm late to this thread and just invested almost 15 minutes reading the whole thing........

The OP is Alex who wanted comments on his high yield bond and high yield stock investing style. Another poster, who likely should have started his own thread, VXP036000 jumped in talking about having a portion of his portfolio set aside for short term equity trading where he says he is doing very well.

Alex and VXP036000 are being confused and comments misdirected in many cases.

Alex - You seem to understand the risks you're assuming with your committment to high yield / high div investment approach. Someone wins the lottery despite the tough odds and it might be you. Or it might not. You sound like a big boy who will deal with the consequences as necessary. Good luck and enjoy!

VXP036000 - Your strategy, when separated from Alex's and looked at alone, isn't that unusual even here on this board. I too set aside a portion of my RE portfolio for short term equity trading. I'm glad you have been enjoying some success and wish you the best. Like everyone who actively trades a portion of their portfolio, you'll likely experience good times and bad times and I'm sure you're ready to deal with both. Good luck.

If you'd like a focused discussion on short term equity trading, why not start your own thread instead of injecting your unrelated comments into this thread on high yield / high div investments that Alex started?
+1

So many people confused the two posters. Big thanks to youbet for setting the record straight, and to provide the above summary.

The above bold-faced words were mine. And I turned them red to highlight, but I also borrowed the idea from the Chinese that red is a lucky color, and not to signify danger.

And talk about luck, I need it too. Can one ever have too much luck?
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Old 01-13-2013, 02:48 PM   #153
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Anyone with an ounce of brains can see that Alex and VXP are one and the same troll riffing of each other and us. Makes for an amusing thread.
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Old 01-13-2013, 02:51 PM   #154
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Alex,

You started the thread by saying you had found few professionals who were willing to endorse your method. Several recent Wall Street studies on "dividend investing" are mentioned here:
Why Invest In Dividend Stocks? A Review Of Recent Research - Seeking Alpha

Seems to me the study by Northern Trust describes a similar investing style and provides support for a high-yield, high-quality portfolio:
http://www-ac.northerntrust.com/cont...paper_0312.pdf
Quote:
Northern Trust published a very thorough white paper describing their process and rationale, sans some key details, for developing a high-yield, high-quality portfolio. They began by looking at these two characteristics in isolation, dividing stocks into quintiles and analyzing the excess return in each group. They then created an intersection of these two traits; the results are in the table below.



I think it would be enlightening for you to compare their method to yours. Perhaps then the responses could provide greater clarity between critiques of your method vs. potential deficiencies in your execution of the strategy.
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Old 01-13-2013, 02:54 PM   #155
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Anyone with an ounce of brains can see that Alex and VXP are one and the same troll riffing of each other and us. Makes for an amusing thread.
I may be naive to take people's words at face value, but the site owner has a way to verify the above allegation. It's not fool-proof, but I hope at least it got exercised.
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Old 01-13-2013, 02:58 PM   #156
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Anyone with an ounce of brains can see that Alex and VXP are one and the same troll riffing of each other and us. Makes for an amusing thread.
That does not appear to be the case. (Yes, we check)
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Old 01-13-2013, 03:01 PM   #157
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Anyone with an ounce of brains can see that Alex and VXP are one and the same troll riffing of each other and us. Makes for an amusing thread.
Ouch! That's exactly how my DW starts out conversations when she thinks I'm not tuned in..........

If I wanted abuse, I wouldn't have to post here. I'd just go into the kitchen and ask why dinner isn't ready yet!
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Old 01-13-2013, 03:05 PM   #158
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My wife keeps asking me why I spend so much time on this forum. I have gotten quite a few financial tips from this site, but the recreational value is also fantastic for the price.

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Old 01-13-2013, 03:09 PM   #159
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I may be naive to take people's words at face value, but the site owner has a way to verify the above allegation. It's not fool-proof, but I hope at least it got exercised.
A mundane troll would simply use two email addresses and post as separate identities. I would not expect the admins to pursue that unless the poster was disrupting the board. This poster is not. Even if he was it would seem fairly easy to get around admin tricks. How are they to monitor identities, IP addresses of the posters? Once banned on any site, a malicious troll would have the sense on other sites to use devices with alternate addresses, e.g, a 3G phone and a PC. But, again, I don't see this guy doing anything that would stir the admins up.

If I am wrong, I only begrudgingly apologize. The poster has been pretty obnoxious, after all.
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Old 01-13-2013, 03:18 PM   #160
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Even if the two one poster is trolling, the thread can only go on as long as people find it amusing. Yes, a determined troll will find a way, but a thread can only go on for so long.

It takes two to fight, and so far look how many have entered the fray. I tried to stay out, but kept getting drawn in.
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