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Old 05-09-2009, 07:11 PM   #41
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Oh well, since RW won't share that wonderful future looking program... I guess I'll just have to stick to old fashioned AA. With my upper bumper at 60% equities, I see after Friday I'm now pushing 56%. What a roller coaster! a little while ago I was wondering if I would have the fortitude to actually buy equities as my portfolio got closer to my lower equities limit of 50%. Now I'm wondering about the other side of that coin. Jeez, I'm getting too old for all this excitement...
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Old 05-10-2009, 08:46 AM   #42
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Jeez, I'm getting too old for all this excitement...
This is what I learned. Oh, wrong thread...

This is my very own roller coaster ride. Data is quarterly, except for the last data point, included to show present value. The chart doesn't show the absolute high, but got close.
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Old 05-10-2009, 09:12 AM   #43
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Very Nice recovery HFWR!
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Old 05-10-2009, 12:16 PM   #44
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Now, that's a more interesting graph, although you "only" doubled it from 2003 to 2007. Figure out how to replicate that going forward, and you will retire rich! Maybe do nothing and it will come?

I did well in that period, but they say not to push one's luck. On the other hand, I feel the need to tweak my portfolio. Can't resist it, but it's not hormones like Uncle Mick always says... When drifting down a rapid in a raft, do you paddle or just let it drift?

OK, OK, Uncle Mick's porfolio is not drifting guidelessly either; he relies on an autopilot. But then you are trusting the people who design the autopilot, and I do not know them. I have heard stories about airliner crashes where the pilots should have disconnected the autopilots and flew manually.

I guess time will tell if my slicing and dicing will do any good.
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Old 05-10-2009, 12:23 PM   #45
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Now, that's a more interesting graph...
If "interesting" = volatility, this is one contest where I'm happy to have my chart labeled "boring".
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Old 05-10-2009, 12:28 PM   #46
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From Oct 07 to now, my accounts are -$250,000. During that time I have received about $10,000 in SS income, and spent $87,000 on taxes and expenses of all kinds. So, my investment result is $250,000 less ($87,000-$10,000)=- $173,000. I should soon get a tax refund which will help but not materially.

If I felt confident that we have seen a durable bottom I would feel not good, but OK.

Unfortunately, I am not at all confident about this market "bottom".

Ha
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Old 05-10-2009, 01:54 PM   #47
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If "interesting" = volatility, this is one contest where I'm happy to have my chart labeled "boring".
Pick your slope...
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Old 05-10-2009, 05:34 PM   #48
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Now, HWFR's plot looks like that of a "chartist".

I could never figure out those technical charts. Looks like you could draw lines between any two points of your choice to draw any conclusion you wish. Most often, to cover all bases, they would draw multiple conclusions to be safe.

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If I felt confident that we have seen a durable bottom I would feel not good, but OK.

Unfortunately, I am not at all confident about this market "bottom".
Ha
I don't feel good about the gummint pumping money into the system to rescue it either. However, I've got to go along for the ride, and enjoy it while it lasts. My guess is that the market will not drop lower but may languish for a long time, unless some wonderful things that we have not foreseen happen.

Can never say never; as recent as the early 80s, watching "The Day After", who would have thought the Berlin wall would crumble a few years later. But I am still going to hedge by looking overseas, trying to invest in countries and companies trading with the Chinese. The Chinese rise to a powerful economic country is not a matter of if but when, in my opinion. And it will occur in the next 10 years, before I am even eligible for early SS.
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