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Old 03-22-2008, 08:08 AM   #21
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Originally Posted by cyclone6 View Post
I'll give a few things to consider:

1- 400B+ Federal budget defecits
2- 700B+ Current account defecits
3- The American Peso in a literal free fall
4- A negative savings rate
5- The real estate implosion
6- Inflation running rampant - regardless of the cooked numbers fed to us by the labor department
7- Wages being outstripped considerably by the non-inflation mentioned above
8 - Rising unemployment - headed much higher
9- Record individual debt levels
10- Outstanding Medicare and Social Security liability levels that literally could not be paid for with all the money in the worlds banks combined
11- The worst credit crisis since WWII (see Bear Stearns - do you really believe thats the only one on the horizon?) The entire world financial system hangs in the balance. Can the worlds central banks control the carnage?

Theres just a few. I'm sure I forgot some. The FED is desperately trying to inflate the economy. If I can count, I think they've got 2.25% left to cut. After that they have 0 room to move - just as the Japanese found in the 90s. And inflating the money supply equals only one thing - runaway inflation. When that becomes self evident, then the FED has their final choice to make - inflate our money to worthlessness, or raise interest rates to contain inflation and send the markets tumbling to un-thought of lows and creating a deflationary spiral (read depression).

Its simple in the end. We've lived far beyond our means for the last couple of decades. Our debt is killing us. Worst of all, we can't even control the outcome, as so many foreign nations now hold our future in their hands (China, Japan, Saudi Arabia, etc..., etc...) with all of the dollars they hold.

When was the last time we entered a very costly war (500B+) with no end in sight while we were cutting taxes? Remember the sacrifices everyone paid to fight WWII? Now we get everything for free...

What the hell ever happened to the old American principals of paying for what you bought, sustainable Federal, trade, and individual budgets. We are a nation that prospered on the labor of poor countries and unsustainable debt.

We are not even close to a bottom here. Its time to face the truth - that we must start paying for what we consume, start to pay down our debt, and suffer the economic consequences for quite a while to come.

If you want to believe that all will be fine - feel free - go ahead. But I seriously doubt any of you that follow whats going on can just stick your heads in the sand and say "yes, all is good"...

But hey, I gotta run - I'm missing March madness!
medicare and social security don't have to be repaid with one check, but over 40 years or so

and medicare is taking steps to cut expenses and control access to medical care
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Old 03-22-2008, 12:14 PM   #22
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That said, I'm very encouraged by this week's downturn in oil and other commodities, and the improvement in the dollar.
Ding, ding, ding! Finally, someone else noticed!

As equities and any kind of bond but treasuries have taken a beating, the two momentum play sectors have been commodities and currencies. The sudden back-up in both last week suggests to me that we may be in the process of seeing money come out of those sectors and start going into non-treasury bonds and equities. Might be choppy in the meantime, but I think it is a quite encouraging sign.

Money market assets are at a historical high right now and I think there is a lot of money on the sidelines that needs to get invested. When people start getting comfy that we hae seen the bottom, there could well be a sharp upswing in the stuff that has been beaten down. No telling how long such a move could last, but...
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Old 03-22-2008, 12:21 PM   #23
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Yes, it was basically a 2 day plunge in commodities. Maybe it will continue down ward this week. About time coffee went down that was getting ridiculous.
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Old 03-22-2008, 03:26 PM   #24
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Money market assets are at a historical high right now and I think there is a lot of money on the sidelines that needs to get invested. ..
Is there a chart showing say MM assets as a percent of total investment assets versus time somewhere on the web that is easy to access?

MB
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Old 03-22-2008, 04:33 PM   #25
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Soooo - balanced index for defense and offense on full auto so the play calling doesn't get confusing.

I bet once again the Pat's will cobble together a good football team but in my heart I will root for the Saint's.

And I 'sertainly hope' Mr Market, the election and other world events don't consider themselves as important as football.

heh heh heh - I wonder with all this high water how kayaks will sell this spring/summer?
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Old 03-22-2008, 06:16 PM   #26
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The FED is desperately trying to inflate the economy. If I can count, I think they've got 2.25% left to cut. After that they have 0 room to move
Come on Cyclone. This is the government we're talking about. They can always find a way to make things much worse. If they can't lower rates further, they can always print more money for instance.

Just stay tuned. We will see some virtuoso shenanigans from these rascals in the coming months. You've got to have faith bro'. They're gonna screw this up real bad!
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Old 03-22-2008, 06:22 PM   #27
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Is there a chart showing say MM assets as a percent of total investment assets versus time somewhere on the web that is easy to access?

MB
Not that I am aware, but I am too lazy to look.

You can see the big money in money markets as manifested in the abdsurdly low t bill rates that have popped up lately.
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Old 03-22-2008, 06:35 PM   #28
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i think the Caluculated Risk or Big Picture blogs had them in the last month. try searching there.
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