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Old 05-09-2009, 09:28 AM   #61
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I think the bear market rally is over. I think next week will be the beginning of a downturn.
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Old 05-09-2009, 09:31 AM   #62
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Nostradamus? Is that you?
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Old 05-09-2009, 10:29 AM   #63
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Have not achieved the Boglehead's Zen like 'don't know, don't care' but with 85% Target Retirement 2015 on full auto the Norwegian widow predicts the Saint's will look good early before the final low in November thus picking up a few more good stocks before the Saint's snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in December - the usual - Saint's don't make the play offs and stocks resume their upward bias.

That opinion and $4 might, I say might, get you something at the local Starbucks.



heh heh heh - I lost my really good crystal ball. .
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Old 05-09-2009, 11:44 AM   #64
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Have not achieved the Boglehead's Zen like 'don't know, don't care' but with 85% Target Retirement 2015 on full auto the Norwegian widow predicts the Saint's will look good early before the final low in November thus picking up a few more good stocks before the Saint's snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in December - the usual - Saint's don't make the play offs and stocks resume their upward bias.

That opinion and $4 might, I say might, get you something at the local Starbucks.



heh heh heh - I lost my really good crystal ball. .
Maybe the Steelers and Saints in the big one this year? Stocks go on a another 38% run up? Thats my prediction..
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Old 05-10-2009, 10:17 PM   #65
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snidely whiplash,

I think we are mostly on the same page here, too.

"I dont know if I have the stomach to wait a year after the fed starts to tighten (personal preference, not a commentary on your strategy). I would be willing to give up some potential gains in order to sleep better at night."
Make sure you realize that the fed funds rate has to approach the inflation rate in order for the fed to really cut off an asset bubble. For the fed rate to reach 3 or 4 percent probably wont do it. What you traditionally want to watch for is those really uncharacteristically big fed jumps like 75+ basis points(or several really close together 50 basis point jumps) after the fed reaches 4%(because those 25 basis point increases every fed meeting isn't going to cutoff serious inflation).

I ultimately will start selling once I feel the fed has rased the rate to my target(like you), but its going to be apart of a dollar cost averaging strategy out of equities and into muni's(most likely). The goal is to be completely out of equities by 1-1.5 years after. But the initial sales will start coming in during the first few months. I bet that I wont even have a clue when munis peak, so I'll need to be freeing up capital early. The last sales I make wont go into munis though, they're going to be spread into short term call options and slowly adding long term put options. That way I get to still participate in the market increasing as well as banking on the crash + a huge jump in volatility.
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Old 05-16-2009, 02:39 AM   #66
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Nostradamus? Is that you?
Yes, I'm here. Downturn will continue for the next 4 weeks.
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Old 05-16-2009, 10:06 AM   #67
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Yes, I'm here. Downturn will continue for the next 4 weeks.
Do you have a newsletter?
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Old 05-16-2009, 02:48 PM   #68
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Old 05-16-2009, 03:01 PM   #69
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Very pretty. I did not know that tea leaves were so large.
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Old 05-17-2009, 04:33 AM   #70
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How to look at it depends on your time horizon... the new bull market is just starting!
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