According to this graph, the average bear market rally during the depresssion lasted 70 days and saw the market rise 30%.
We're almost there.
How Long Bear-Market Rallies Last
We're almost there.
How Long Bear-Market Rallies Last
Many reasons to think that this is merely a bear market rally. But what to do?
In my case, I have quite a bit more in taxable accounts than tax deferred. I have no capital loss carryovers. All my gains are short term, all my unrealized losses long term.
Do I sell and take profits, and pay CG tax? To I buy an inverse ETF? Or do I just hang on?
I can't decide.
Ha
Many reasons to think that this is merely a bear market rally. But what to do?
In my case, I have quite a bit more in taxable accounts than tax deferred. I have no capital loss carryovers. All my gains are short term, all my unrealized losses long term.
Do I sell and take profits, and pay CG tax? To I buy an inverse ETF? Or do I just hang on?
I can't decide.
Ha
According to this graph, the average bear market rally during the depresssion lasted 70 days and saw the market rise 30%.
We're almost there.
But you can realize some long term losses and offset the long term loss against the short term gain.
What will affect you more, losing portfolio value if equities decline or having insufficient purchasing power if your portfolio doesn’t grow fast enough?Many reasons to think that this is merely a bear market rally. But what to do?
In my case, I have quite a bit more in taxable accounts than tax deferred. I have no capital loss carryovers. All my gains are short term, all my unrealized losses long term.
Do I sell and take profits, and pay CG tax? To I buy an inverse ETF? Or do I just hang on?
I can't decide.
Ha
I didn't realize this. Opens a whole new vista of possibilities. Thanks Martha. BTW, I guess you are feeling better from your flu?
Ha
I would actually use put options as the hedge since they are cheap. More hedge for the buck.
Hussman Funds - Weekly Market Comment: Comfortable with Uncertainty - May 4, 2009
"In his book On Being Certain, neurologist Robert A. Burton quotes F. Scott Fitzgerald – “The test of a first rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposed ideas in the mind at the same time and still retain the ability to function.” Buddhist teacher Pema Chodron calls it “being comfortable with uncertainty” – being willing to take every aspect of reality as the starting point, without wasting energy wishing things were different, without denying reality as it is (even if your next step is to work toward changing things), and without needing to know what will happen in the future. “The truth you believe and cling to makes you unavailable to hear anything new. The best thing we can do for ourselves is to be open to an unknown future.”"
I have not nor possibly never will achieve that Boglehead - Buddhist like - 'don't know don't care' posted on that forum by some. But with 85% in a lifecycle fund - I permit myself:
Let the Saint's go marching in - Superbowl this year for sure. But then I remember Lucy snatching that football away from Charlie Brown at the last minute after she suckers him in - every year.
The Norwegian widow has her 15% stash - it only takes one or a few good stocks.
heh heh heh - if I feel I'm getting too optimistic - Bernstein's '15 Stock Diversification Myth' lurks on Google to steady me down.
Its different this time.