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Bear Mkt has begun.My FIRE plans solidified.
Old 12-07-2018, 04:18 PM   #61
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Bear Mkt has begun.My FIRE plans solidified.

Here is one person's view of why we are seeing such volatility in the market:

https://humbledollar.com/2018/12/pus...Vold41ybYwYHR4

Basically, the author is critical of momentum funds that exaggerate any movements up or down. He admits he can’t quantify their total effect on the market.

“We’ve long seen this sort of momentum in stock prices. What’s changed? An increasing number of investment firms have launched funds to take advantage of this momentum effect. These momentum funds scour the market, looking for stocks that are displaying strong directional moves. When they find them, they effectively jump on the bandwagon, buying stocks that are going up and selling stocks that are going down. While it’s difficult to quantify, these momentum funds amplify the market’s ups and downs by bidding up stocks that are already going up and putting downward pressure on shares that are already headed lower.”
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Old 12-07-2018, 07:18 PM   #62
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Great advice as always! Yep, my plan is not as ‘solid' as I let on, but I think the jello is starting to jell. This Bear is real. Call it a hunch, intuition, or B.S. I'm a glass half full guy. The problem I have is with #3 of this plan:

1. Set your date
2. Select an allocation that you are comfortable with
3. Have 3 to 5 years of cash on the side to cover your fixed expenses.

Unfortunately, through the majority of my working years all I did was contribute to 40K and buy a house. House will be paid off next June 2019. I did not build up savings like I should have in hindsight. Then, when I got serious about achieving FIRE 5 years ago, I realized from this forum that I needed cash/after tax brokerage account so I could have bridge $ before 59.5. The challenge is building up that bridge $ ...since it is not just living expenses, it has to cover HC as well. My 401K is $1.5M, but my after tax/savings is only $60K. I fully understand my expenses (been tracking them closely for 5 years). Right now, firecalc says I’m 97% good to retire today. But, when I lay the full plan into Excel, I’ll have to use that 72T to live on in order to retire now. Somewhat stressful. And, if I adjust my 401K to a horrible -26% crash the day before my set retire date, then my firecalc results drop to 67% success. I know firecalc takes this into account, but still my brain can’t handle it. At this point, I feel I have no choice but OMY or 2MY to address step 3 further …and ease my mind. Go Seahawks! BTW - 'Da Bears' are no match for the Rams.

Jack
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Old 12-07-2018, 07:32 PM   #63
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What you could do is to retire as planned and start retirement with an AA on the conservative end of what is tolerable to you and live off fixed income redemptions for the first 5 years... that will also grade your AA more towards the middle of what is tolerable to you and mitigate SORR.

So for example, let's say you are a 60/40 guy but anything between 40/60 and 70/30 would be tolerable. Start retirement with a 40/60 AA and for the first 5 years increase the stock percentage 4% each year when you rebalance.. so rebalance from 40/60 to 44/56, 48/52, 52/48, 56/44 to 60/40. What you are effectively doing is living off of fixed income those first 5 years and mitigating SORR.

I think you might be able to FIRECalc it by using a 60/40 AA and reducing your assets by 5 years of spending and defer your retirement for 5 years... where the conservatism in the AA is modeled as a side fund for the first 5 years.
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Old 12-07-2018, 10:25 PM   #64
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So is this one of those time that's is better to have a less money in the stock market. Or is it a great buying opportunity.

I'm in the former camp, but it interested in arguments who think this is just a blip in a bull market.
This is how I see it also. It is basically absurd to think that a market that has been on fire for almost 10 years could possibly be a buying opportunity. Well, that is wrong, every day that the exchange is open is a buying opportunity, just many periods are not good buying opportunities.

Ha
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Old 12-12-2018, 11:45 AM   #65
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What is SORR?
Thanks. I was hoping someone had 'axed' that!

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Old 12-15-2018, 01:46 PM   #66
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That 'fake news' stuff is everywhere! Check your source data, always!

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Thank you!
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Old 12-16-2018, 08:09 AM   #67
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For the life of me, I can't fathom why people were falling all over themselves to buy the same stocks at Dow 26.5K that they can't wait to sell at Dow 24.3K.

Take NOW. Yesterday, buyers couldn't get enough of it at 187. Now, they can't dump it fast enough at 180. In the meantime, NOTHING has changed about the company, it's revenue or profit outlook, etc. NOTHING.

THIS IS NOT "INVESTING". Its' gambling. What color of the roulette wheel is your stock going to land on today? Red or black?

That's why I'm 100% convinced this market is broken. We have never seen anything quite like it, and once we're back to Dow 26K (if we ever get there again in my lifetime), I'm selling every last share of stock and funds I own and going 100% cash the rest of my natural life. I want absolutely NOTHING to do with this type of market, because I'm convinced it's not operating in any way like it ever has before - and I no longer want to have anything to do with it.
I suggest, in times like this, stop watching your portfolio. Markets always over react both on the upside and on the downside.

Regarding, investing or gambling, the instruments are the same. But some people use it for gambling and some for investing. On a day to day basis it does indeed feel like gambling. Over the long term, it really depends on whether you bought at bubble prices or throwaway prices.

I am not going to say that I know prices will definitely go up in the long term. I don't know. But you should have a plan for every outcome. Including a fall of 50% from the current levels. Make sure your asset allocation is right such that you can tolerate a crash like that. Don't go blindly with 110-age. It is not for everyone. You must come up with your own ratio and looking at your risk tolerance, I think you shouldnt exceed 50:50 stocks: bonds. I am also 50:50 and I have decided not to exceed that no matter what people tell me about inflation. I will work harder and save more to beat inflation.
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Old 12-16-2018, 08:29 AM   #68
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Originally Posted by Chuckanut View Post
Here is one person's view of why we are seeing such volatility in the market:

https://humbledollar.com/2018/12/pus...Vold41ybYwYHR4

Basically, the author is critical of momentum funds that exaggerate any movements up or down. He admits he can’t quantify their total effect on the market.

“We’ve long seen this sort of momentum in stock prices. What’s changed? An increasing number of investment firms have launched funds to take advantage of this momentum effect. These momentum funds scour the market, looking for stocks that are displaying strong directional moves. When they find them, they effectively jump on the bandwagon, buying stocks that are going up and selling stocks that are going down. While it’s difficult to quantify, these momentum funds amplify the market’s ups and downs by bidding up stocks that are already going up and putting downward pressure on shares that are already headed lower.”
This likely contributes to some extent. Other things also contribute to what is taking place. My view has always been that the same way the index funds were pushing the market higher as Vanguard had been the beneficiary of record inflows for a good while, the entire process works the same in reverse when there are net outflows.

1. Index funds see net outflows
2. Index funds sell their basket of stocks - with highest amount of selling in those names topping the S&P 500 (Apple, Amazon, Google, Facebook, JPM, XOM)
3. Index moves lower
4. More investors send redemption request to index fund

Lather, rinse, repeat.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bl...ars-2018-10-16

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/in...per-2018-12-14
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Old 12-16-2018, 10:00 AM   #69
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... THIS IS NOT "INVESTING". Its' gambling. What color of the roulette wheel is your stock going to land on today? Red or black? ...
@RetireSoon, I'm sorry you are so upset. One of the things I have been studying, reading Richard Thaler and Daniel Kahneman, over the past couple of years is behavioral economics. Maybe a few comments from that perspective will help.

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Originally Posted by RetireSoon View Post
... For the life of me, I can't fathom why people were falling all over themselves to buy the same stocks at Dow 26.5K that they can't wait to sell at Dow 24.3K.

Take NOW. Yesterday, buyers couldn't get enough of it at 187. Now, they can't dump it fast enough at 180. In the meantime, NOTHING has changed about the company, it's revenue or profit outlook, etc. NOTHING....
While over the long term the Efficient Market Hypothesis appears to govern (Richard Thaler agrees with this), over the short term pricing can be quite illogical. Here is a 42 minute video featuring Thaler and Eugene Fama, father of the EMH. (Both are Nobel prize winners.) I think you will enjoy it.

(Remember, too that the number of shares sold is always exactly the same as the number of shares bought.)

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... That's why I'm 100% convinced this market is broken. We have never seen anything quite like it, ...
Well, I'm not sure who "we" is, but I've been in the market for over 45 years and this little kerfluffle doesn't seem all that unusual to me. We will have to wait five years or so to make a judgment about it, however. To the extent these things can be understood at all, they can be understood only in the rear view mirror.

One of the things the behavioral economists point out is that as humans our decision-making suffers from a "recency bias." IOW, we weight recent events more highly that events that are farther in the past. I think that's what is happening to you. Recently we have had an unusually low volatility period for the market, but looking over a longer period you can see that is not the norm. I have always thought this copilot checklist applied well to investing: Sit down, shut up, and hang on.

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Originally Posted by RetireSoon View Post
... and once we're back to Dow 26K (if we ever get there again in my lifetime), I'm selling every last share of stock and funds I own and going 100% cash the rest of my natural life. ...
That view seems kind of odd to me. Why not bail out now? Your plan probably has some flavor of what Thaler and Kahneman call the "endowment effect," where we humans tend consider the value of something we own to be more than what we would be willing to pay for it if we didn't own it. You can read a little about it on Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endowment_effect) but best would be to get Thaler's book "Misbehaving." Understanding that we humans tend to behave in this illogical way has helped me to make better investing decisions.

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... I want absolutely NOTHING to do with this type of market, because I'm convinced it's not operating in any way like it ever has before - and I no longer want to have anything to do with it.
Well, as I said we differ on that. But the interesting thing about your post is that you actually do intend to remain in the market until it at least recovers to its recent high. I do too, and I'll remain longer than that. I think it's at least possible that you, too, will remain based the recency of the runup you are expecting. No way to know, however.

Be well. ... This, too, shall pass.
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Old 12-16-2018, 10:22 AM   #70
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Headline says evidence is mounting investor expect a stock market crash. We all know what that means. Get ready to buy with both hands. Get greedy. Blondies third year rally along with Mr Claus will get us to 3200-3400. When you can cut negativity with a knife its go time.
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Old 12-16-2018, 10:33 AM   #71
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Headline says evidence is mounting investor expect a stock market crash. We all know what that means. Get ready to buy with both hands. Get greedy. Blondies third year rally along with Mr Claus will get us to 3200-3400. When you can cut negativity with a knife its go time.
You are probably the biggest optimist on this site. Not a bad comment; actually refreshing....
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Old 12-16-2018, 11:53 AM   #72
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Originally Posted by RetireSoon View Post
For the life of me, I can't fathom why people were falling all over themselves to buy the same stocks at Dow 26.5K that they can't wait to sell at Dow 24.3K.

Take NOW. Yesterday, buyers couldn't get enough of it at 187. Now, they can't dump it fast enough at 180. In the meantime, NOTHING has changed about the company, it's revenue or profit outlook, etc. NOTHING.

THIS IS NOT "INVESTING". Its' gambling. What color of the roulette wheel is your stock going to land on today? Red or black?
Because human beings decision making process is imperfect, perhaps as a result of what was important for survival. In many ways, we are herd animals, and our decisions are biased based on what 'others' are doing.

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Originally Posted by RetireSoon View Post
That's why I'm 100% convinced this market is broken. We have never seen anything quite like it, and once we're back to Dow 26K (if we ever get there again in my lifetime), I'm selling every last share of stock and funds I own and going 100% cash the rest of my natural life. I want absolutely NOTHING to do with this type of market, because I'm convinced it's not operating in any way like it ever has before - and I no longer want to have anything to do with it.
There is nothing new here, and the market is no more 'broken' than it was many other times historically. What was the reason why the Dow 30 stocks at the end of October 19, 1987 were worth 22.6% less than the day before? Perhaps what is different is *you*, in terms of your reaction to it and the desire to get out of the 'game'?

Your statement "if we ever get there again in my lifetime), I'm selling every last share of stock and funds I own and going 100% cash the rest of my natural life" is exactly why markets are much more than just fundamental analysis, e.g. DCF valuations etc. You (and others thinking similar thoughts) will provide resistance around certain levels - regardless of the fundamentals, because of the human emotional desire to "get out" when an underwater investment goes positive.

Think about this - there are many out there who are thinking investment decision thoughts that have NOTHING to do with future earnings. Instead, they are seeing red ink and selling because they are afraid it will get worse and that they would rather get out (and stop the pain) than see even more loss. That is an emotional response, just like your desire to sell if you get to 26K.
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Old 12-16-2018, 11:56 AM   #73
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This likely contributes to some extent. Other things also contribute to what is taking place. My view has always been that the same way the index funds were pushing the market higher as Vanguard had been the beneficiary of record inflows for a good while, the entire process works the same in reverse when there are net outflows.

1. Index funds see net outflows
2. Index funds sell their basket of stocks - with highest amount of selling in those names topping the S&P 500 (Apple, Amazon, Google, Facebook, JPM, XOM)
3. Index moves lower
4. More investors send redemption request to index fund

Lather, rinse, repeat.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bl...ars-2018-10-16

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/in...per-2018-12-14
Yes, all the passive index investors (like most people on this site) are contributing to market volatility.
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Old 12-16-2018, 12:05 PM   #74
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Yes, all the passive index investors (like most people on this site) are contributing to market volatility.
If they are redeeming and contributing to the booking of net outflows by the funds, then indeed they are.

The linked articles clearly indicate that record net outflows are taking place, and this is a change from what has been taking place previously. It is certainly contributing to market volatility.

Believe whatever you like.
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Old 12-16-2018, 12:13 PM   #75
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If they are redeeming and contributing to the booking of net outflows by the funds, then indeed they are.

The linked articles clearly indicate that record net outflows are taking place, and this is a change from what has been taking place previously. It is certainly contributing to market volatility.

Believe whatever you like.
Yes, I believe it. My rule: Anytime an investment 'theme' becomes pervasive, it will then fail to work.

Corollary: The herd is never right (once the herd becomes big enough).

Corollary: There are more losers than winners with any given investment approach.

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Old 12-16-2018, 01:22 PM   #76
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Yes, all the passive index investors (like most people on this site) are contributing to market volatility.
Well, IMO not exactly.

Every bull market (in my 40+ years of investing) seems to end with the pundits warning of "weak hands." These are the late-arriving and naive investors who are forecast to bail as soon as the market scares them. They probably do bail, and that probably really does contribute to volatility.

So now this "weak hands" story has added the footnote that the weak hands are passive investors. Probably that is true. But the index is just a collection of stocks, so whether that collection is sold off by weak hands that hold those stocks individually (or hold stock-picking mutual funds) or by weak hands that hold a broad index, I think the result is pretty much the same. A broad range of stocks are sold as the weak hands bail out.

So, IMO no news here. Passive investors probably contribute to volatility in about the same way that weak hands have always done. No more. No less.
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Old 12-16-2018, 02:21 PM   #77
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Old 12-16-2018, 03:00 PM   #78
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Well, IMO not exactly.

Every bull market (in my 40+ years of investing) seems to end with the pundits warning of "weak hands." These are the late-arriving and naive investors who are forecast to bail as soon as the market scares them. They probably do bail, and that probably really does contribute to volatility.

So now this "weak hands" story has added the footnote that the weak hands are passive investors. Probably that is true. But the index is just a collection of stocks, so whether that collection is sold off by weak hands that hold those stocks individually (or hold stock-picking mutual funds) or by weak hands that hold a broad index, I think the result is pretty much the same. A broad range of stocks are sold as the weak hands bail out.

So, IMO no news here. Passive investors probably contribute to volatility in about the same way that weak hands have always done. No more. No less.
Hypothetical: Suppose that *all* investing is passive, and is invested only in the SP 500. If so, what happens to the price of MSFT (heaviest weight) vs. BHF (Bright House Financial, 500th). Well, since all investment flow (positive or negative) is to the SP 500 index, they would retain their relative % weight. I would hope you would agree that this would be a bad thing, because over time they will likely see different outcomes that should reflect their relative prospects.

Now what happens if we go from 100% active, 0% passive to environment where the % active gets relatively small? Does the market start to lose its outcome weighing ability because net investment weights become sticky? At what percentage of blind passive purchasing/sales does this become a problem?
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Old 12-16-2018, 04:35 PM   #79
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Hypothetical: Suppose that *all* investing is passive, and is invested only in the SP 500. If so, what happens to the price of MSFT (heaviest weight) vs. BHF (Bright House Financial, 500th). Well, since all investment flow (positive or negative) is to the SP 500 index, they would retain their relative % weight. I would hope you would agree that this would be a bad thing, because over time they will likely see different outcomes that should reflect their relative prospects.

Now what happens if we go from 100% active, 0% passive to environment where the % active gets relatively small? Does the market start to lose its outcome weighing ability because net investment weights become sticky? At what percentage of blind passive purchasing/sales does this become a problem?
Well, those are common criticisms of passive investing, but neither has anything to do with the topic at hand: volatility.

To your first hypothetical: It is really too hypothetical to be useful. If I gave you a hypothetical that said: "Hypothetically, if the earth stopped spinning, all the people at the equator would still be moving 1000 miles/hour ..." you would laugh and dismiss the thought. IMO your hypothetical is similar; so silly as to not be in the realm of consideration. What you are trying to make is the "price discovery argument."

To your second sally, that is also the price discovery argument. It's very popular among people wanting to criticize passive investing: If all investing is passive, price discovery cannot occur. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_discovery)

That's true, but it begs the question of whether all investing can/will ever become passive. And the answer is "Of course it can't and won't." for several reasons. The most fundamental reason is human nature. We are greedy and optimistic mammals. These traits mean that casinos and lotteries will never go away and it also means that stock picking will never go away. Another reason is the investment industry itself. There are probably a couple of million people whose salaries depend on customers believing the myth that stock picking works. So many customers will remain benighted and hence, will not switch to passive strategies.

Another flaw in the price discovery argument is to observe that passive funds rarely trade (like 5%-10% per year), where stock pickers with 100% or more per year turnover are common. IIRC the markets are something like 40% passive right now but passive trading is only 1/20th (5%) of market activity. So those stock-pickers are still beavering away doing their price discovery and will continue to do even when they become a minority as asset holders.

Finally, these are "tragedy of the commons" type arguments (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tragedy_of_the_commons) that are irrelevant to individuals' personal investment decisions.
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Old 12-16-2018, 04:46 PM   #80
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