Bearish Call?

[HFWR]

Total bull****, but if this guy is "very" short the market, I'd at least believe he has the courage of his convictions...

[Fermion]

Quote:

Originally Posted by HFWR Total bull****, but if this guy is "very" short the market, I'd at least believe he has the courage of his convictions...

Of course it is bull****. The guy could buy Jan 2015 SPY $140 puts for only $2.35 each. When it falls 75% to $46 those puts would be worth $94 each.

That is a gain of almost 4000%

He could invest $50,000 and make $2,000,000 and never have to write another fake, crappy, bull**** article again in his life. We could tell him how to arrange the $2,000,000 to ER if he becomes a forum member.

[haha]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fermion Of course it is bull****. The guy could buy Jan 2015 SPY $140 puts for only $2.35 each. When it falls 75% to $46 those puts would be worth $94 each. That is a gain of almost 4000% He could invest $50,000 and make $2,000,000 and never have to write another fake, crappy, bull**** article again in his life. We could tell him how to arrange the $2,000,000 to ER if he becomes a forum member.

Do you know that he did not do this? I just looked at the open interests in various long duration put contracts, and there is plenty open interest in various strikes to accommodate him.

Also, if I were young guy, I'd like to have that $2mm that you mention, but I also think that I would not want to trade a well paid, easy job where all I had to do was go beyond my certain knowledge from time to time. We do it all day every day here, for no pay at all.

Ha

[karluk]

Mr. Zimmerman has been dispensing worthless advice for years now. Without even looking hard I found his prediction from December, 2011, in which he fearlessly predicted that the S&P 500 would fall to 579.57 by the end of 2012. The five signficant figures in his target number are a nice touch - he can't even get the direction of the market right, but that doesn't prevent him from predicting the closing price a year in advance to the nearest 1/100 of a point.

His quoted remarks are quite amusing in retrospect for how thoroughly clueless he was in reading the economic tea leaves.

I also see that both the recent article and the one from 2011 were written by Tomi Kilgore of the WSJ. I don't want to question Kilgore's journalistic integrity, but quite frankly this strikes me as at best lazy and at worst totally cynical. Kilgore seems to have made Mr. Zimmerman his official spokesman from the bearish camp and knows that whenever he needs a sensational headline, Mr. Zimmerman will be there to provide it - no disclaimers required, even though Kilgore knows that Zimmerman has been spectacularly wrong in the past.

Quote:

He expects 2012′s price action will mirror what the S&P 500 did from its Oct 2007 peak until it bottomed in March 2009. “The technical patterns suggest that 2012 will be a terrible year for holding stocks. Even if by some miracle the euro zone hangs together, it is already falling into a deep and enduring recession,” says Zimmerman. “We expect this recession will drag down both the USA and China.”

S&P 500 Falling Below 600? This Will Even Make The Bears Shudder - MarketBeat - WSJ