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Old 03-03-2012, 11:32 PM   #21
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You guys need to upgrade to the newest Quicken version! It seems to come with anti-wh*** protection.
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Old 03-04-2012, 12:05 AM   #22
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So, you are implying that I need to spend some? OK, so I change the spending model to 3.5% of portfolio each year, with no cutting back on bad years.

....

FIRECalc results sound too good, but I wouldn't mind if it comes true.
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The models I have used give me confidence in 3.5%, but if one needed the investments to last a long time with certainty, at 3% the fund should last forever.
NWB, by definition, a flat 3.5% of the portfolio each year will never deplete your stash. Galeno used 4%. The only negative is that the distribution each year can vary wildly, even when smoothed out with a cash bucket.

The 3.5% I referenced is of the initial pot escalated every year for inflation.

I do not know what I will do when the time comes, but there will be no hefty withdrawals unless we have a major health crisis. I am postponing SS and IRA WDs as long as I can.
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Old 03-04-2012, 12:08 AM   #23
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I sometimes think many on this board are too consertative, maybe lots are Scottish :-)
Actually, Dutch here. My dad told me the only thing tighter than a tight Scotsman was a liberal Dutchman. Copper wire was invented by two Dutchmen fighting over a penny.
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Old 03-04-2012, 12:10 AM   #24
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NWB, by definition, a flat 3.5% of the portfolio each year will never deplete your stash...
True, but one can set up FIRECalc's spending model so that in the years when the portfolio goes down, the spending stays at the 3.5% of the highest (previous) portfolio value!

The above was what I did, just for grins.

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The 3.5% I referenced is of the initial pot escalated every year for inflation.
I understand that FIRECalc reports everything in today's dollars. It is nice that one can look at all the numbers without having to account for inflation.
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Old 03-04-2012, 12:39 AM   #25
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It is a terrific tool, isn't it?
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Old 03-04-2012, 12:46 AM   #26
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Yes.

Now, if it can also guarantee the future will be like the past...
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Old 03-04-2012, 12:50 AM   #27
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Yes.

Now, if it can also guarantee the future will be like the past...
Quite an assumption, isn't it. Even though FIRECalc is a nice tool, it is just a model.

"All models are wrong, but some models are useful." - - G. E. P. Box
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Old 03-04-2012, 01:55 AM   #28
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So do I. And sometimes I feel guilty about having these thoughts.
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That's OK. I always like counting money more than spending it anyway.
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Old 03-04-2012, 01:30 PM   #29
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It beats the dumb picture I had in my ignorance before I learned something. Tools like FireCalc have saved me from catastrophe. Maybe not disaster, but catastrophe, yes.
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Old 03-05-2012, 02:08 PM   #30
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You guys need to upgrade to the newest Quicken version! It seems to come with anti-wh*** protection.
sorry, dumb question I know, but what does wh*** stand for?
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Old 03-05-2012, 02:13 PM   #31
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Now, if it can also guarantee the future will be like the past...
Then we would get younger, year by year (no thanks! )...
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Old 03-05-2012, 02:14 PM   #32
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sorry, dumb question I know, but what does wh*** stand for?
Not dumb at all. A veteran member of the forum has occasionally looked at her portfolio after a nice market run-up, liked what she saw, and posted about it, using the term Wh***. Every time, the maket falls shortly thereafter. Coincidence? Can't be. As they saw, forewarned is twice warned.
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Old 03-05-2012, 02:18 PM   #33
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thanks! That makes more sense
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Old 03-05-2012, 02:25 PM   #34
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Watch out. She said it last week. The whole forum is on edge
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Old 03-05-2012, 02:28 PM   #35
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Watch out. She said it last week. The whole forum is on edge
uh oh. Looks like I picked a bad day to buy $15K in index funds
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Old 03-05-2012, 02:46 PM   #36
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So, I guess the author is not among those who cry "Wh***".
You mean like this:

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Old 03-05-2012, 03:12 PM   #37
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Not dumb at all. A veteran member of the forum has occasionally looked at her portfolio after a nice market run-up, liked what she saw, and posted about it, using the term "Wh***". Every time, the maket falls shortly thereafter. Coincidence? Can't be. As they saw, forewarned is twice warned.
You're not supposed to spell the jinx word out. Arrrgh!

Prob is, W2R gets excited just as we touch old highs. She can't wait until we get 5% or 10% above them. We are doomed, doomed I tell ya!
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Old 03-05-2012, 03:18 PM   #38
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You're not supposed to spell the jinx word out. Arrrgh!

Prob is, W2R gets excited just as we touch old highs. She can't wait until we get 5% or 10% above them. We are doomed, doomed I tell ya!
Doesn't matter if I write it. She's the one. And she did it last week. I agree, another 10% woulda been nice...
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Old 03-05-2012, 06:37 PM   #39
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OK, for newcomers to this forum, the following was the original "Wh***" thread in 2007 that brought down Bear Stearns, Merril Lynch, and numerous other businesses, caused the market to lose nearly 50% of its value, wiped out trillions of dollars of equities world-wide.

===>> Record Dow! Whee!

Yes, it was the original "Wh***" that rang around the world. We have all been there, and barely survived it. Actually, some less fortunate forum members have vanished since that time, either toiling back at some w*rk, or their current living conditions do not even include Internet access for them to post here.

Now, you know why forum members run scared like headless chicken when we hear that word. How do tsunami survivors react when someone cries "earthquake"? OK, you've got the idea.

Back on this thread about SWR, a few more "Wh***", and people will be talking about 2%SWR. I dunno about y'all, but I cannot live on that meager WR, and may just keep my part-time work a bit longer.
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Old 03-05-2012, 08:57 PM   #40
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I believe I could live for 1000 years on my WR, if only my body and the world's politico-economic path would cooperate. With my nice but no way luxurious w.o.l., my withdrawal rate since SS began is well south of 1%.

I called my buddy to see if he would like to attend a Robert Shiller lecture with me. Sure he said, but I have to go on a cruise with my wife.

It is much easier to live cheaply if everything you spend other than medical has to meet your own criterion for pleasure per $. So while he is spending several thousand dollars on a rather humdrum and totally unneeded vacation, I'll spend $5 for a lecture with a very prominant academic close enough for me to walk, and maybe a max of $150 over the same period of his cruise on sashimi and wine entertaiment.

Ha
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