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Re: Best Portfolio to Achieve 8% Annualized Return with Low Volatility
Old 01-15-2007, 02:19 PM   #41
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Re: Best Portfolio to Achieve 8% Annualized Return with Low Volatility

Can't get to 8% but have a Tax Deferred/Tax Free low 6 figure personal fund (CD's) returning 6.25% (Insured) over the next 7 years. If inflation stays at 3.2% (which is the BLS average over the past 20 years) that is a real return of over 3% (partially before taxes, and some tax-free).

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Re: Best Portfolio to Achieve 8% Annualized Return with Low Volatility
Old 01-15-2007, 02:43 PM   #42
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Re: Best Portfolio to Achieve 8% Annualized Return with Low Volatility

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bikerdude
I think it was Warren Buffet that predicted in 2000 or 2001 that the S&P500 would return on average 6 to 6.5% including dividends over the next decade. So for that to be true we should be in for some pretty good years going forward.
The 5 year average annual return for Vanguard's S&P 500 index fund, as of December 2006, is 6.07%. The S&P 500 simply has to return between 6.0 to 6.5% for the next four years and Buffett's prediction will come true.
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Re: Best Portfolio to Achieve 8% Annualized Return with Low Volatility
Old 01-15-2007, 02:56 PM   #43
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Re: Best Portfolio to Achieve 8% Annualized Return with Low Volatility

Using a slightly different methodology - Bogle was in the same handgrenade range.

The latest workup, I've seen is his keynote address at the May 15, 2006 Las Vegas Money Show.

dividends plus economic growth plus average P/E change up or down.

heh heh heh heh - as he invites everyone - don't take his word - plug in your own numbers and calculate for yourself.
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Re: Best Portfolio to Achieve 8% Annualized Return with Low Volatility
Old 01-15-2007, 03:31 PM   #44
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Re: Best Portfolio to Achieve 8% Annualized Return with Low Volatility

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Originally Posted by JustCurious
The 5 year average annual return for Vanguard's S&P 500 index fund, as of December 2006, is 6.07%. The S&P 500 simply has to return between 6.0 to 6.5% for the next four years and Buffett's prediction will come true.
I think you have to go back just a little more to get the real return of the S&P500 since Buffet made his remarks. Jan of 2001 ended at S&P 1366. The high in March 2000 was 1527 we are currently at 1430. Not much return there except for dividends.
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Re: Best Portfolio to Achieve 8% Annualized Return with Low Volatility
Old 01-15-2007, 03:47 PM   #45
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Re: Best Portfolio to Achieve 8% Annualized Return with Low Volatility

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bikerdude
I think you have to go back just a little more to get the real return of the S&P500 since Buffet made his remarks.

When did he make the remarks?

Jan of 2001 ended at S&P 1366. The high in March 2000 was 1527 we are currently at 1430. Not much return there except for dividends.
Based upon my rough calculations, since Jan of 2001, the SP500 index fund had an avg annual return of 3.4%.
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Re: Best Portfolio to Achieve 8% Annualized Return with Low Volatility
Old 01-15-2007, 05:30 PM   #46
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Re: Best Portfolio to Achieve 8% Annualized Return with Low Volatility

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Originally Posted by JustCurious
Based upon my rough calculations, since Jan of 2001, the SP500 index fund had an avg annual return of 3.4%.
That sounds about right for that period. 5% cap gain and 12% or so dividends for 6 years. A little over inflation. Go back to March 2000 and its a capital loss plus dividends to date.
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Re: Best Portfolio to Achieve 8% Annualized Return with Low Volatility
Old 01-15-2007, 08:08 PM   #47
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Re: Best Portfolio to Achieve 8% Annualized Return with Low Volatility

Quote:
Originally Posted by brewer12345


I like DJP and PCRIX. DJP reigns supreme for taxable accounts, but you have to be comfy with an instrument that is technically a bond issued by Barclays.
PCRIX has $5M minimum entry. Where is the back door entry for the little guy?
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Re: Best Portfolio to Achieve 8% Annualized Return with Low Volatility
Old 01-15-2007, 08:10 PM   #48
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Re: Best Portfolio to Achieve 8% Annualized Return with Low Volatility

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Originally Posted by Bailing-Bob
PCRIX has $5M minimum entry. Where is the back door entry for the little guy?
Vanguard has a much lower limit requirement.
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