I finally got a minimal web presence on Geocities to post some pdf charts that go with the original post. Four of them are at: index
The first three are supersets of the three in my original post. I.e., each has two more graphs per chart than the original in order to show two more scenarios:
- Min RMD -- Target Roth converting so as to keep MRDs from ever exceeding our personal IRA withdrawal needs. I.e., we wag the tail, the tail doesn't wag us.
- Min 25% bracket -- Target Roth converting so as to keep us out of the 25% bracket for life after age 70.5.
These are both pretty heavy conversions, especially the second one. Neither fares well in poor economic conditions, presumably because the early hits to portfolio value can just never catch up during such conditions.
The fourth shows how the individual accounts fare over the years with scenario 2, the best choice for our situation.
Again, thanks for all the discussion. The reason for trying to model this stuff in detail was to deduce from the generalizations I've read about down to our particular situation.