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Old 11-23-2009, 10:09 PM   #41
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Lumping is probably best IF you don't need to draw your poke at 4% like
Spartacus originally posted. Lumping vs. DCA would likely have a SMALL
advantage over a significant period of time, assuming no draw down.

However, if FIRECALC has show us anything, it is that the most
dangerous time to start your withdrawal is just before a market correction of major proportions.

Do you really understand your risk?

Cheers,

charlie
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Old 11-23-2009, 10:49 PM   #42
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What if you had the spectacular asset allocation, all the science/theories of investing, and then invested in Japanese markets "for the long term" 20 years ago?
20 years later, still down, never recovered?

What would a long term investor say to that? I don't know.
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Old 11-24-2009, 12:45 AM   #43
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Originally Posted by Spartacus View Post
What if you had the spectacular asset allocation, all the science/theories of investing, and then invested in Japanese markets "for the long term" 20 years ago?
20 years later, still down, never recovered?

What would a long term investor say to that? I don't know.
I'd say they did not have a "spectacular" AA. A good AA would NOT have you 100% invested in your own domestic equity market.

DD
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Old 11-24-2009, 06:25 AM   #44
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Originally Posted by Spartacus View Post
What if you had the spectacular asset allocation, all the science/theories of investing, and then invested in Japanese markets "for the long term" 20 years ago?
20 years later, still down, never recovered?

What would a long term investor say to that? I don't know.
If they balance it out with other investments in China, India, etc they would be very happy today.
TJ
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Old 11-24-2009, 06:58 AM   #45
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Spartacus,

Why are you in such a rush to put that money into the market? The first rule of investing is don't lose money, and by lump summing it in at today's market levels with all the current economic uncertainty has a high level of dissapointment IMO.

Just park the money in some online bank accounts, get your piddly 1.5%, and be ready when the stock market corrects when the Fed starts raising rates. Could be a year or so, but so what? Don't rush. I've done that (rushed) a few times in my investment and business career, always with bad results.

Slow down. Take a breath. Do nothing until you KNOW it's the right time. I really think the opportunity to get into the market will present itself farily soon.

I'm waiting as well..............................
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Old 11-24-2009, 08:45 AM   #46
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Do nothing until you KNOW it's the right time. I really think the opportunity to get into the market will present itself farily soon.

I'm waiting as well..............................
The crystal ball is never as clear as the rear view mirror. We've had folks here who've given up a lot of gains by waiting until their bunion told them to get into the market. If these folks have the knack to know when the time is right to buy and sell, then they are wasting their time with their piddly portfolio, they could make a million dollars a year advising a pension fund using their unique talent or system. Maybe they'll come out ahead.
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Old 11-24-2009, 10:05 AM   #47
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Spartacus,

Why are you in such a rush to put that money into the market? The first rule of investing is don't lose money, and by lump summing it in at today's market levels with all the current economic uncertainty has a high level of dissapointment IMO.

Slow down. Take a breath. Do nothing until you KNOW it's the right time. I really think the opportunity to get into the market will present itself farily soon.

I'm waiting as well..............................
Money is made by investing when times are uncertain, not when everything is looking good. What's the phrase, invest money when there is blood on the streets?
Put 50% in the market now, 25% 6 months from now and another 25% 12 months from now, the worst that will happen is you won't be 100% correct, but you won't be 100% wrong either.
And if investing (as oppose to speculating), it won't matter much 10 years from now.
Many hedge managers have been shorting the market since it hit 9000 months ago because they were all calling for 10% pullback, it was a certainty...except it never happen, opps? Wait till their investors find out they would have been better off with an index fund instead of the high price hedge fund.
TJ
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Old 11-24-2009, 01:28 PM   #48
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So, if you buy on the dips is that market timing or just wise investing? Or is that a product of procrastination since you shouldn't have had that much cash on the sidelines to begin with?
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