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Re: Big Question is "Yes or No"
Old 03-17-2005, 12:05 PM   #61
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Re: Big Question is "Yes or No"

Just sold some appreciated stock today. At the beginning of the year, I had about $100,000 LT gain in one US stock. I have sold about half of that.
I want to get a better picture of my 2005 tax situation before selling any more. Given OK tax, I would feel fine going to 0% stocks, although practically speaking that is unlikely to happen.

After the sale, I have 55% fixed income, including 10% foreign intermediate term bonds and the rest cash. But only 14% US stock other than energy and mining.

This is partly age and stage of life. But I fully expect to be at least 80+% in stocks again, given appealing prices. It may be a while before this comes about!

I made my first investment in 1962, and started in earnest in 1974. One thing I have figured out over the years is that although circumstances can cause very abrupt spikes and crashes, there are also very long term mega-tides that underlie whatever is going on day to day.

Around the time of the top in S&P and Nasdaq in 2000-2001 there were amazing bargains in some stocks. Energy, REITs, tobaccos are were cheap; and I bought them all.

Right now I am almost out of REITs, holding but unsure on energy, and mostly out of tobacco. Energy in particular, while obviously no bargain, may be the beneficiary of a buying panic sometime. My discipline is almost solely based on valuation and psychology, and so I am unprepared for things like the $64,000 energy question- "Are we indeed running out of cheap oil?" Whether we are or not, if this idea gets widely accepted look out! At some time it may be better to approach this opportunity via LEAP call options than by owning stock- especially if one does not have a legacy position of already appreciated energy shares.

So I muddle along, always with ideas but never sure of anything other than "stuff happens".

Mikey

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Re: Big Question is "Yes or No"
Old 03-17-2005, 01:00 PM   #62
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Re: Big Question is "Yes or No"

Anyone else enjoying a discussion of cash position turned into the usual ***** troll? Are you enjoying skipping past page long drivels to get to the meat?

He really doesnt care about SWR's.

He really doesnt care if you believe him or not.

There isnt a valid substantiated point.

But that doesnt matter to him, really...
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Re: Big Question is "Yes or No"
Old 03-17-2005, 01:34 PM   #63
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Re: Big Question is "Yes or No"

Please find something constructive to do with your time, TH.
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Re: Big Question is "Yes or No"
Old 03-17-2005, 02:35 PM   #64
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Re: Big Question is "Yes or No"

Funny, I was thinking the same thing about you.

All this energy wasted trying to make up for your personal shortcomings, trying to fill that empty space with attention from people you'll never even meet.

Well, for your sake, lets hope you never meet them
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Re: Big Question is "Yes or No"
Old 03-17-2005, 04:15 PM   #65
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Re: Big Question is "Yes or No"

lets hope you never meet them

I always enjoy meeting people I know from the boards.

Wanderer visited the states one time and we had a long lunch talking over all sorts of fun stuff in a restaurant not too far from me. He even picked up the bill!

PeteyPerson and I have never met, but we have had lots of e-mail exchanges. I've had lots of e-mail exchanges with JWR1945 too. When I sent him my book, he asked me to send a copy to his daughter too. I did, and she had some great suggestions. One of the things she suggested was that I publish a workbook for it. I hope to be able to get that out by the end of the year.

Me and intercst and TheBadger did an interview together when we were selling our Retire Early reports. I advertised my report at intercst's web site, and we had lots of e-mail exchanges as a result of that. I wouldn't be surprised if we end up doing some joint radio interviews or debates or something like that down the road.

There's a guy over at the Motley Fool board who is trying to get a group from the boards to meet at his house. Someone took a poll as to who would come, and there were a number who said that they would come only if intercst and I made it. I certainly will be there if unless some big conflict comes up.

My guess is that you are not a bad person in the real world, TH. My sense is that you just feel that you are playing a role in some sort of game when you are posting on the internet.

I don't see it that way. I know how hard I worked to make my plan as strong as I could make it. I think that people reading my posts deserve to hear the straight story. I can't promise that I will never make a mistake. I can promise that I will always tell it straight and to the best of my ability.

There are real living human beings reading the stuff we put forward here, TH. I think it is good to remind ourselves of that from time to time. That's one of the reasons why I like to include in my posts references to the screen-name of the person who wrote the post to which I am responding. It's a reminder that our posts are not just aggregations of words. We are communicating with people and we should behave in the same manner as we would if we were talking to people at a picnic or at the swimming pool or whatever.

Civility matters.
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Re: Big Question is "Yes or No"
Old 03-17-2005, 04:24 PM   #66
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Re: Big Question is "Yes or No"

The big question is "do you do that with your right or left hand"?

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Re: Big Question is "Yes or No"
Old 03-17-2005, 04:35 PM   #67
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Re: Big Question is "Yes or No"

Do you own a photo bureau?

Mikey
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Re: Big Question is "Yes or No"
Old 03-17-2005, 04:52 PM   #68
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Re: Big Question is "Yes or No"

I do! Its called "The Internet"

Actually this is rather easy. go to google.com, up above the search engine you see a link that says "images". Click on that, and put in a search for what you'd like photos of. Voila.

And yes, you can get THOSE kind of photos with it too...its very indiscriminate.
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Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Just another form of "buy low, sell high" for those who have trouble with things. This rule is not universal. Do not buy a 1973 Pinto because everyone else is afraid of it.
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Re: Big Question is "Yes or No"
Old 03-17-2005, 05:45 PM   #69
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Re: Big Question is "Yes or No"

Quote:
A lot of funds, and buffett as well, are holding an awful lot of cash. *And they hate to hold cash.

Should tell us something.

The problem with this strategy is that you end up paying a high fee for them holding the cash. I can hold cash myself and not pay the fee!

If cash is the issue, they should be closing the funds much sooner than they are. That is the real problem. Oakmark Select is just one case where Oakmark have greedily taken more money in but the manager is now stuck often high in cash or buying the very largest caps because he has too much capital to deploy and is trapped.

Berkshire Hathaway is now a glorified balanced fund. 25% stocks, 25% private equity, 25% bonds, 25% cash. I can get better returns elsewhere.

Petey

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Re: Big Question is "Yes or No"
Old 03-17-2005, 06:18 PM   #70
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Re: Big Question is "Yes or No"

Quote:
Berkshire Hathaway is now a glorified balanced fund. 25% stocks, 25% private equity, 25% bonds, 25% cash. I can get better returns elsewhere.
Maybe for a while, but not likely over time. Buffet is not an asset allocator, he is an opportunistic and very skillful allocator of capital. Furthermore he is honest.

Mikey
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Re: Big Question is "Yes or No"
Old 03-17-2005, 06:26 PM   #71
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Re: Big Question is "Yes or No"

10% INCREASE IN BOOK VALUE!

Not flakey market value. And no I don't own any BRK.
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