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Big Up Day So Far
Old 10-13-2008, 09:22 AM   #1
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Big Up Day So Far

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Old 10-13-2008, 09:33 AM   #2
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Good day for equities. Terrible day for inflation plays. I think the market is grossly underestimating the inflationary potential of the massively increased debt and money supply that will result from central banks cranking up the printing presses.

I'm actually increasing my allocation to gold miners and TIPS today, carved out of my overweight Treasury and cash positions. They are getting brutalized. If you don't drink the deflation Kool-Aid, TIPS are a screaming buy here.

Unfortunately, I planned to rebalance my stock allocation, too -- hate to do that today, but if this is the start of a serious oversold rally, maybe I should rebalance halfway.
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Big Up Day So Far
Old 10-13-2008, 09:38 AM   #3
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Old 10-13-2008, 09:47 AM   #4
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Methinks someone is trying to jinx things.
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Old 10-13-2008, 11:41 AM   #5
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The latest value of the DOW is just brain gunk that distracts Americans from other more fundamental measures of economic and societal health that are much more important in the long run.

Massive borrowing can certainly create the illusion of prosperity. If we can collectively maintain the illusion until the day I die, should I really give a damn whether future generations will have to deal with ugly reality? It depends, I suppose, upon whether I can stand to look myself in the mirror in the morning.
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Old 10-13-2008, 11:53 AM   #6
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I am thinking about selling an equivalent to the modest $10,000 I put into the market at good buys last week, calculating my modest profit and doing something joyful with it.

I don't usually think this way. I was fully invested and put that $10,000 in as my last bit to put in.

There's just something about these times that makes me sometimes want a good, solid experience to come from my virtual money. Depending on the amount, it could fund sharing a rum cake from the best bakery with good friends, or heading down to NYC to see some things.

Kate
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Old 10-13-2008, 11:55 AM   #7
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Going to be a huge sell off at the end of the day.
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Old 10-13-2008, 11:56 AM   #8
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Going to be a huge sell off at the end of the day.
Well, as someone who still needs to finish rebalancing after all the recent carnage, I can see that as a glass-half-full event.
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"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)

RIP to Reemy, my avatar dog (2003 - 9/16/2017)
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Old 10-13-2008, 02:35 PM   #9
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I am thinking about selling an equivalent to the modest $10,000 I put into the market at good buys last week, calculating my modest profit and doing something joyful with it.

I don't usually think this way. I was fully invested and put that $10,000 in as my last bit to put in.

There's just something about these times that makes me sometimes want a good, solid experience to come from my virtual money. Depending on the amount, it could fund sharing a rum cake from the best bakery with good friends, or heading down to NYC to see some things.

Kate
Well, I did it. I sold a small number of shares of what I purchased last week. Never did it like this before, though I've heard stories of people who do. I suspect it will fund a nice cake from the bakery, but if it's enough I'll take a trip to NYC to spend time with a blind friend who always knows what to see.

Kate
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Old 10-13-2008, 02:45 PM   #10
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Going to be a huge sell off at the end of the day.
Dow +760 with 15 minutes to go.
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"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)

RIP to Reemy, my avatar dog (2003 - 9/16/2017)
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Old 10-13-2008, 02:53 PM   #11
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Up 826 points and less than 7 minutes to go!!!

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Old 10-13-2008, 02:56 PM   #12
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You can all thank me for this rally.
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Old 10-13-2008, 02:56 PM   #13
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Going to be a huge sell off at the end of the day.
Don't give up your day job...
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Old 10-13-2008, 02:56 PM   #14
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The latest value of the DOW is just brain gunk that distracts Americans from other more fundamental measures of economic and societal health that are much more important in the long run.
I agree. Sometimes it seems that people treat the DOW as if its a representation of the entirety of the US economy. Yay, the DOW's up for the day, all our problems are solved!
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Old 10-13-2008, 02:57 PM   #15
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Don't give up your day job...
What job?

Oh and tomorrow we will have another big rally.
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Old 10-13-2008, 03:00 PM   #16
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Going to be a huge sell off at the end of the day.
I hope you didn't short the market this afternoon. My 5 day plan is looking good.
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Old 10-13-2008, 03:02 PM   #17
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Looks like almost 1000 points at closing!!! We need an emoticon of throwing confetti.

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Old 10-13-2008, 03:04 PM   #18
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I agree. Sometimes it seems that people treat the DOW as if its a representation of the entirety of the US economy. Yay, the DOW's up for the day, all our problems are solved!
Obviously that's not the case -- but let's face it, mentality and sentiment play a role in just how far back consumers and investors pull back. And the more they retrench, the worse it could get.

So while one nearly 950ish-point gain on the Dow and 105 point run on the S&P hardly mean we're saved, I think every bit of positive sentiment the markets and the economy can salvage is a little bit less the coming economic weakness will bite into us. Sentiment goes a long way into influencing consumer and investor behavior.
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"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)

RIP to Reemy, my avatar dog (2003 - 9/16/2017)
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Old 10-13-2008, 03:10 PM   #19
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I hope you didn't short the market this afternoon. My 5 day plan is looking good.
No I buy and hold. Pretty boring stuff.
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Old 10-13-2008, 03:11 PM   #20
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Looks like almost 1000 points at closing!!! We need an emoticon of throwing confetti.
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