I've reviewed prior posts on this subject, and note recent news from Turkey (yes, the irony ...) regarding another worrisome outbreak ...
possibly signaling human-to-human transmission (see
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article...974978,00.html.
In a nutshell, commentators indicate this strain may have a 50% fatality rate, Vs. 10% for the 1918 pandemic.
Assuming for a moment that the risk could be very real and very serious, IF that is the case, what investments will do well?* [Let's avoid debate on this thread about the potential, the seriousness, etc. ... let's just brainstorm what investments, what if.]
[NOTE (especially for lurkers) ... we all recognize that should such an event take place, the human suffering, and likely personal losses all of us could suffer would greatly eclipse any, any economic considerations.* By the same token, everyone on this board decided long ago to take personal responsibility for the financial affairs and well-being of their families.* We do no one any good by ignoring the economic implications of such a disaster.]
In an earlier thread, Martha mentioned companies that sell air filters (such as 3M) could prosper, while the tourism industry migbt be better to short.
Focusing
only upon the investment / economic implications, what does an investor do?
Brainstorming with you:
- Health care - would such a pandemic be the tide that lifts all health care boats ... what stocks would prosper.* Or, in such a catastrophe, would likely governmental involvement destroy the investment potential?
- Energy - fewer people traveling, general slowdown in economic activity would seem to depress energy prices, and provide perhaps temporary respite from the trend.
- Consumer goods - durables would seem to suffer
- Precious metals - perhaps further strengthening, with a general decline in currencies during a health crisis?
- REIT's - fewer transactions, depressed rents due to lower economic activity?
- Bonds - depressed economic actifity would likely strengthen bonds ... perhaps the big winners?
Just a few ideas to get some discussion going ... frankly, I'm sure some of you have already done the math, and are much more in tune with the alternatives.* I'm here to study.
Having said all of this, it is certainly possible, perhaps probable that this will go the way of Y2K, the coming currency collapse and so on ... and be similar to the prediction of 20 of the last 3 recessions.* We'll see.* Just interesting to noodle.
Threaded Mode
