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Old 09-03-2016, 12:38 PM   #41
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I am talking specifically about the Mr. mustache crowd

I've listened to many Podcasts and Watch many YouTube videos and these people to crack me up

There is a whole community of people that are trying to convince me that they're retired

It's a job for them

They think they found a magical shortcut To get out of working
Why do you invest so much time listening to the podcasts and watching the videos if you do not believe their story?
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Old 09-03-2016, 12:38 PM   #42
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If he's lucky he will become a millionaire like Mr. mustache and be able to sell the fantasy of frugal lifestyle While taking your family on international trips making 30 K a year

Not.
According to 2015 Annual Net Worth Update - Retire by 40
his net worth was 2M at YE2015. He reports monthly expenses at the start of each month and they fluctuate quite a bit but seem to average about 5K, so their effective WR would be around 3% without his wife's earned income, assuming his reported online income of ~1K/mon covers their taxes once she stops working.

FWIW if I were earning income from writing regular blog posts, I wouldn't call myself retired.
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Old 09-03-2016, 12:51 PM   #43
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Why do you invest so much time listening to the podcasts and watching the videos if you do not believe their story?
I think he's working 2 jobs. His real job and his second job debunking the fake early retiree conspiracy. Gonna be hard to ever retire if he keeps up that second job...
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Old 09-03-2016, 01:00 PM   #44
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Why do you invest so much time listening to the podcasts and watching the videos if you do not believe their story?
Because it's entertaining

There just part of the investment community and I enjoy listening to people talk about their investments

And it's not about believing their story

Remember the highflying 90s during the tech bubble when everybody was going to retire at age 50

Mr. Money mustache fever is no different
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Old 09-03-2016, 01:16 PM   #45
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Because it's entertaining

There just part of the investment community and I enjoy listening to people talk about their investments

And it's not about believing their story

Remember the highflying 90s during the tech bubble when everybody was going to retire at age 50

Mr. Money mustache fever is no different
Well, if that's what puts the vinegar in your pickle, why not.

Just one thing. You don't believe they have enough assets to retire early, their ER plans are based on their investments, so you must believe their investments won't deliver what they expect, yet you follow them for their investment advice?
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Old 09-03-2016, 01:19 PM   #46
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Anyone with significant bond holdings and retiring to day witrh a 30 years time horizon is probably optimistic using 25x (ie 4% SWR)
I don't understand that. Even with NO return at all 4%SWR will last 25 years. Add a yield from a bond fund and 30 years should be easy.
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Old 09-03-2016, 01:45 PM   #47
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Well, if that's what puts the vinegar in your pickle, why not.

Just one thing. You don't believe they have enough assets to retire early, their ER plans are based on their investments, so you must believe their investments won't deliver what they expect, yet you follow them for their investment advice?
Well everybody is pretty much just investing in Vanguard Index funds and ETFs so there's not a whole lot of advice to get

No the math does not work for most of these retirement bloggers to last a whole lifetime without working again

They are just selling the idea of retirement early retirement

There's nothing wrong with it but it's just an idea and that's the product

I just find Mr. Money mustache fever entertaining and fascinating

It's just like the.com bubble

If somebody's going to sell the public the idea of early retirement then they have to be able to expect constructive criticism

That's all this is I'm not making personal attacks on anybody
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Old 09-03-2016, 01:49 PM   #48
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I was not comfortable with using the standard SWR model (initial % withdrawal adjusted for inflation) when we ER'd in our late 40s.

That's why we (and a number of others on this forum) went with a withdrawal model that takes a fixed percentage of the current portfolio value each year - and that percentage is less than 4%. Our AA is 60/40 stock/bond.

In reality, our expenses stay pretty constant for a few years, then jump a bit and stay constant (nominal) again for a while. So, our withdrawal model gives us a spend ceiling that we don't try to aim for.

There are risks in this model too. A long decline in the market will make life difficult - and we have decided that we'll go to work to fill in the gap should that occur. We think it is a very small possibility, but are not ready to mentally close that option - now or ever.


I'm with Exflyboy and Rodi. There are many variations of "retired" and if that's how you see yourself, then that's it. I don't think the "millions" that Purplesky refers to consider themselves to be retired. Its all semantics to everyone but the person concerned anyway.
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Old 09-03-2016, 02:06 PM   #49
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For the younger people on Mr. MM I wonder if they will get frugal fatigue after awhile. It is one thing to live frugal for awhile because of a goal, etc but as a way of life I think it would get old. Sure you have lots of time but your friends are working, etc. I was a SAHM until my youngest went to school and then I was bored and looked forward to working.
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Old 09-03-2016, 02:09 PM   #50
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Originally Posted by purplesky View Post
Well everybody is pretty much just investing in Vanguard Index funds and ETFs so there's not a whole lot of advice to get

No the math does not work for most of these retirement bloggers to last a whole lifetime without working again

They are just selling the idea of retirement early retirement

There's nothing wrong with it but it's just an idea and that's the product
I feel that there is something wrong with that. It is fraudulent, just like the miracle cures pushed by frontier salesmen. Also, I am not pleased by people planning to raise children on the backs of taxpayers.

I retired quite early, largely because I didn't understand the issues. But my kids didn't even attend public school, and they paid their ways to public universities. There was no ACA.

One difference between then and now is that the look forward returns on fixed income as well as stocks were likely to be at least 3x greater. Yet few if any people were writing about early retirement. I heard of Joe Dominguez but I though he was a nut. I did read a book by Terhorst, who seemed well grounded and careful. I also knew hippie era dropouts, and saw how many of them came running back to reality and corporate or other careers when they saw how rough poverty could be even when it was voluntarily elected and romanticized.

Currently the US has its lowest employment rate ever of working age males. Unlikely that all of these are er'd software developers.

I agree with Purplesky, this movement is evidence of a delusion. It may also be true that we are very close to mass worldwide over-supply of labor, and everyone may get bailed out in some sort of social programs, funded by taxpayers until it can no more be funded, then perhaps some harsher system. It seems that every other teenager I meet wants to be a robotics developer. Vamos a ver!

Ha
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Old 09-03-2016, 03:13 PM   #51
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When my husband reached age 62 and chose to not work anymore... and even let his architectural license lapse - did he not retire? (Because I was still working?)
The test is if the two of you separate right then and there without one supporting another, whether the one not working can stay not working and still live more or less the same lifestyle. Most stay-at-home parents can't pass this test. Therefore they are not retired. Your husband can. Therefore he's retired.

Word has meanings. It's not all semantics or what anybody thinks or makes up.
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Old 09-03-2016, 04:20 PM   #52
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The test is if the two of you separate right then and there without one supporting another, whether the one not working can stay not working and still live more or less the same lifestyle. Most stay-at-home parents can't pass this test. Therefore they are not retired. Your husband can. Therefore he's retired.

Word has meanings. It's not all semantics or what anybody thinks or makes up.
Like many - if we divorced we would NOT be able to live the same lifestyle. Assets would be divided and costs would be doubled.

That said - even though I'm younger, I'd be in much better shape than him since I saved more aggressively prior to our (rather late) marriage. I have a tiny pension coming online this year that is about 1/2 of his SS... so with my premarital and inherited (never co-mingled) assets - I'm in better shape. But we'd both have a lifestyle decline... and we both could stay retired if we appropriately downsized our lifestyle.

No plans to divorce any time soon. He's the funniest, wittiest guy I've ever met.... and for some reason he likes me too.
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Old 09-03-2016, 04:56 PM   #53
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Like many - if we divorced we would NOT be able to live the same lifestyle. Assets would be divided and costs would be doubled.
I wasn't talking about economy of scale. If you want a housemate you can always get one. With adequate savings someone can not rely on the working spouse's income. Others can't. That makes the difference between retired and having a working spouse and stay-at-home parent having a working spouse.
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Old 09-03-2016, 05:00 PM   #54
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No plans to divorce any time soon. He's the funniest, wittiest guy I've ever met.... and for some reason he likes me too.
I didn't know my DW posted on here... Hi Honey!


Sent via mobile device. Please excuse any grammatical errors.
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Old 09-03-2016, 05:19 PM   #55
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I wasn't talking about economy of scale. If you want a housemate you can always get one. With adequate savings someone can not rely on the working spouse's income. Others can't. That makes the difference between retired and having a working spouse and stay-at-home parent having a working spouse.
I see your point, but I think you're missing mine. Divorce can devastate one's finances and financial plans... especially if it's close to retirement age (or post retirement) so there isn't the time/means to recover.

A housemate addresses the costs - but doesn't address the division of assets.

We both have income streams that contribute to our retirement. I'm going to call us both retired.
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Old 09-03-2016, 05:46 PM   #56
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I don't understand that. Even with NO return at all 4%SWR will last 25 years. Add a yield from a bond fund and 30 years should be easy.
You need to consider losing years and inflation. The initial 4% SWR (ie a retirement fund amount that is 25x income) will give you a 95% chance of generating inflation linked income for 30 years using a 50/50 portfolio and historical bond and equity returns. If the bond returns are lower than historical averages then the 4% will be too high a withdrawal.
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Old 09-03-2016, 05:53 PM   #57
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My ER goal is about 50x basic expenses, or 33x desired expenses. I'll pare down spending or do some side jobs if needed.
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Old 09-03-2016, 06:13 PM   #58
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According to 2015 Annual Net Worth Update - Retire by 40
his net worth was 2M at YE2015. He reports monthly expenses at the start of each month and they fluctuate quite a bit but seem to average about 5K, so their effective WR would be around 3% without his wife's earned income, assuming his reported online income of ~1K/mon covers their taxes once she stops working.

FWIW if I were earning income from writing regular blog posts, I wouldn't call myself retired
.
Bingo! and that is one of the big problems with these "professional" bloggers. they are writers in a different forum.

A while back there was thread about some couple that was "supposedly" retired, slept int he back of their car and make a nice little sum blogging.

pretty much I use these "blogs" as interesting reads and nothing more, simply because there are way too many variables.
"lifestyle" creep? maybe because I'm not a techie, I don't have all the toys he mentioned. so yes I can imagine retiring without a new big screen tv. in fact Ive been slowly getting rid of stuff. cut the cable, don't have a smart phone
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Old 09-03-2016, 07:17 PM   #59
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A small side gig while retired can still be retired. It's if you DEPEND on that gig for income and spend hours approaching a full time job... then it's harder to call yourself retired.
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Old 09-03-2016, 08:20 PM   #60
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I don't understand that. Even with NO return at all 4%SWR will last 25 years. Add a yield from a bond fund and 30 years should be easy.
2.5% works with a no real return after inflation (1 / 25 = .04) , like in an all TIPS / I bond ladder portfolio, but not with a zero nominal return or a real return of less than zero.
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