Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Bloomberg Poll
Old 03-24-2010, 08:44 AM   #1
Moderator
MichaelB's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Rocky Inlets
Posts: 24,492
Bloomberg Poll

A Bloomberg poll with some pretty startling results -
Quote:
Among those who own stocks, bonds or mutual funds, only three of 10 people say the value of their portfolio has risen since a year ago.
I canít believe this. The actual poll results, though, are clear. 29% said a little worse and 17% said a lot worse. How can this be?

Quote:
For each of the following, please tell me if you sense things are generally a lot better, a little better, about the same, a little worse, or a lot worse than they were a year ago.
Quote:
The value of your investments (Asked only of those with investments; n=665)

A lot Better 6
A little better 25
Same 22
A little Worse 29
A lot Worse 17
Not Sure 1
The article is here Americans Say They Missed 73% Rise in S&P 500 as Economy Surged - Bloomberg.com

The poll results and methodology are here http://media.bloomberg.com/bb/avfile/rnUZ3cMJKhxI
__________________

__________________
MichaelB is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 03-24-2010, 09:19 AM   #2
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 3,323
Doesn't that go along with the old saying that the fear of losing is much stronger than the possibility of gaining? No surprise to me...but maybe that's just me.
__________________

__________________
Please consider adopting a rescue animal. So very many need a furr-ever home and someone to love them! And if we all spay/neuter our pets there won't be an overpopulation to put to death.
Orchidflower is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-24-2010, 10:05 AM   #3
Full time employment: Posting here.
Delawaredave5's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 606
I think people are comparing current value against "high water mark" (market peak) a couple years ago - even if the survey specifically asked for one year ago.
__________________
Delawaredave5 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-24-2010, 10:11 AM   #4
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
REWahoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas Hill Country
Posts: 42,149
Quote:
Originally Posted by Delawaredave5 View Post
I think people are comparing current value against "high water mark" (market peak) a couple years ago - even if the survey specifically asked for one year ago.
One would like to think that, but I suspect there is much truth to the poll results. A lot of people pulled their money out of the market when it crashed (sell low) and didn't get back in until a lot of the recovery had occurred (buy high) - if at all. I suspect many investors are still sitting on a lot of cash cursing the low interest rate environment.
__________________
Numbers is hard

When I hit 70, it hit back

Retired in 2005 at age 58, no pension
REWahoo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-24-2010, 10:12 AM   #5
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
TromboneAl's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 11,201
When the market was dropping, it was a top news item every day. The recovery, not so much. Perhaps that's why.
__________________
Al
TromboneAl is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-24-2010, 10:16 AM   #6
Dryer sheet aficionado
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 26
If you take the value of the dollar into consideration it isn't that hard to understand. They say there isn't any inflation, but no one told my local grocer.....
__________________
billin is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-24-2010, 10:21 AM   #7
Moderator
MichaelB's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Rocky Inlets
Posts: 24,492
Reports from Vanguard and Fidelity that 401Ks were either fully or much recovered, and many posts here and other financial/investing forums - like bogleheads - led me to conclude that most folks were not fully recovered but had made up a large part of the decline. The Bloomberg poll points to a much different situation. Granted, the wording is ambiguous. I find this news item quite unsettling.
__________________
MichaelB is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-24-2010, 10:31 AM   #8
Moderator
ziggy29's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Texas
Posts: 15,613
Quote:
Originally Posted by MichaelB View Post
Reports from Vanguard and Fidelity that 401Ks were either fully or much recovered, and many posts here and other financial/investing forums - like bogleheads - led me to conclude that most folks were not fully recovered but had made up a large part of the decline. The Bloomberg poll points to a much different situation. Granted, the wording is ambiguous. I find this news item quite unsettling.
I think you only "fully recovered" if you doubled down near the lows. Otherwise one can still be 20-25% off the highs. Granted that's better than 40-50% off as some could have been a year ago, but...
__________________
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)

RIP to Reemy, my avatar dog (2003 - 9/16/2017)
ziggy29 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-24-2010, 10:58 AM   #9
Moderator
MichaelB's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Rocky Inlets
Posts: 24,492
Quote:
Originally Posted by ziggy29 View Post
I think you only "fully recovered" if you doubled down near the lows. Otherwise one can still be 20-25% off the highs. Granted that's better than 40-50% off as some could have been a year ago, but...
So maybe I'm taking this a bit too literally - thinking 12/08, 01/09 or even 03/09, when folks responding are thinking more like Delawaredave5 - their high-water mark? Could be. The ambiguity here doesn't help and lends itself to creative interpretation (ideal for a journalist).
__________________
MichaelB is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-24-2010, 11:08 AM   #10
Recycles dryer sheets
Tesaje's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Frederick
Posts: 333
I find polls like this to only indicate how people feel emotionally about their finances. It's money. The only valid survey of actual economic status is to compare actual numbers on date x compared to date y. All they really did was ask people how do you feel?
__________________
I FIREd myself at start of 2010!
Tesaje is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-24-2010, 11:59 AM   #11
Moderator Emeritus
 
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 11,044
I find that hard to believe. A whole 46% said that their investment portfolio went down over the past year, how did they manage to do that? According to Vanguard, all asset classes are up over the past 12 months except for long term treasuries that are marginally down. The only explanation I can find is that they are down because they withdrew money from their portfolio (retirees, unemployed, etc...). Or perhaps people didn't bother to actually check their portfolio value and answered based on a gut feeling (and let's face it, most people are pretty pessimistic nowadays).
__________________
FIREd is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-24-2010, 12:14 PM   #12
Moderator
ziggy29's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Texas
Posts: 15,613
Quote:
Originally Posted by MichaelB View Post
So maybe I'm taking this a bit too literally - thinking 12/08, 01/09 or even 03/09, when folks responding are thinking more like Delawaredave5 - their high-water mark? Could be. The ambiguity here doesn't help and lends itself to creative interpretation (ideal for a journalist).
Hard to say. But I do think that many people *feel* poorer than they did three years ago, and people's perceptions tend to drive their realities.
__________________
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)

RIP to Reemy, my avatar dog (2003 - 9/16/2017)
ziggy29 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-24-2010, 01:17 PM   #13
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 3,323
Not just "feel poorer," but a heck of alot more afraid of sinking money into the market would be a normal reaction I should think. It makes sense to me alot of money is sitting on the sidelines now...only fools like me stayed in.
__________________
Please consider adopting a rescue animal. So very many need a furr-ever home and someone to love them! And if we all spay/neuter our pets there won't be an overpopulation to put to death.
Orchidflower is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-24-2010, 01:22 PM   #14
gone traveling
 
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 3,864
For a lot of folks, their "investments" includes home equity- which hasn't recovered like their 401K or other market-based investments. Perception is reality.
__________________
Westernskies is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-24-2010, 01:40 PM   #15
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 1,666
Quote:
Originally Posted by FIREdreamer View Post
I find that hard to believe. A whole 46% said that their investment portfolio went down over the past year...
Actually they didn't, they said 'the value of your investments'.
Another possibility is a year ago, the value for your money was incredible. For a small amount of money you could buy stock that made incredible gains over the next year.
Now, the stock costs more money to buy AND the gains over the next year are unknown.
So the 'value' of the stock I bought last year is much higher than the value of any stock I might buy, or hold, today.

Not sure if that is how some are seeing it, but it seems logical that those that rely more on emotion than hard numbers may feel this way.
__________________
"We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors, we borrow it from our children.
(Ancient Indian Proverb)"
Zathras is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-24-2010, 02:38 PM   #16
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 489
I'm stuffing my face on lunch right now and short on time but I read the article this am and I think somewhere in there it does say that the portfolios have recovered.

It is their perception or perhaps they just wait for the statements in the mail and have yet to see the recovered loss. Like FIREdreamer said, people might still be afraid to look.
__________________
tinlizzy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-24-2010, 02:57 PM   #17
gone traveling
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Eastern PA
Posts: 3,851
Quote:
Originally Posted by Orchidflower View Post
...makes sense to me alot of money is sitting on the sidelines now...only fools like me stayed in.
Well, then my DW/me are also fools, since we did the same.

At least we don't have to worry about when to get back in - we're already there ...
__________________
rescueme is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-24-2010, 02:57 PM   #18
Moderator Emeritus
 
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 11,044
Quote:
Originally Posted by Zathras View Post
Actually they didn't, they said 'the value of your investments'.
Another possibility is a year ago, the value for your money was incredible. For a small amount of money you could buy stock that made incredible gains over the next year.
Now, the stock costs more money to buy AND the gains over the next year are unknown.
So the 'value' of the stock I bought last year is much higher than the value of any stock I might buy, or hold, today.

Not sure if that is how some are seeing it, but it seems logical that those that rely more on emotion than hard numbers may feel this way.
Perhaps the people polled are more sophisticated investors than I am because when I read the question in its context, this interpretation of "the value of your investments" would never even cross my mind.
__________________
FIREd is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-24-2010, 03:05 PM   #19
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 1,666
Quote:
Originally Posted by FIREdreamer View Post
Perhaps the people polled are more sophisticated investors than I am because when I read the question in its context, this interpretation of "the value of your investments" would never even cross my mind.
I think you have it backwards, perhaps the people polled are LESS sophisticated investors than you

That interpretation is a far more emotional one, and therefore more dangerous one (imho). It is the same type of emotional interpretation that led some investors to get 'all out' while they 'still could' last march
__________________
"We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors, we borrow it from our children.
(Ancient Indian Proverb)"
Zathras is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-24-2010, 03:16 PM   #20
Moderator Emeritus
 
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 11,044
OK, now I get what you mean...
__________________

__________________
FIREd is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Maybe some hope for the markets - From Bloomberg dex FIRE and Money 29 01-22-2009 09:57 PM
This is not over per Bloomberg.com piece: Orchidflower FIRE and Money 2 09-29-2008 11:17 PM
Bloomberg TV on your computer better than CNBC dex FIRE and Money 3 09-29-2008 10:08 PM
Nader or Bloomberg for President Wags Other topics 15 02-04-2008 10:50 PM
States tax rate rankings: Bloomberg Orchidflower Life after FIRE 23 01-17-2008 08:09 AM

 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 07:06 AM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.