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Old 03-26-2013, 09:18 PM   #41
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But how long can they keep up the manipulation?
As long as all the Central Banks, facing the same threat from the enormous debts of their respective governments, can maintain a united front against the bond vigilantes? Conventional savers, many of them in retirement, looking at zero % interest rate and now the possibility of taking a big haircut like what happened in Cypress, be damned. I am not disagreeing with you, but I put forth again, we are giving in very abnormal time.
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Old 03-26-2013, 09:39 PM   #42
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Thanks for the link. It makes sense.
I read the article as bearish on Treasuries and bond mutual funds with a concentration of treasuries but not necessarily bearish on bonds in general.

I actually don't own any treasuries and haven't for a year or so. Mostly short and intermediate term corporates for me at this point.
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Old 03-26-2013, 10:03 PM   #43
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I read the article as bearish on Treasuries and bond mutual funds with a concentration of treasuries but not necessarily bearish on bonds in general.

I actually don't own any treasuries and haven't for a year or so. Mostly short and intermediate term corporates for me at this point.
More often some corporate bonds tank before the US Treasuries because of the individual fortune of the company, but usually corporate bonds and US Treasuries move in unison and in the same direction. And if US Treasuries, considered the safest investment, do badly, do not see how it would not adversely affect the general bond market.
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Old 03-26-2013, 10:23 PM   #44
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The difference IMO is that for corporates you are getting fairly compensated for the risks you are taking and for Treasuries you are not getting adequately compensated for the risk you are taking.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...angerous-.html
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Old 03-27-2013, 02:41 AM   #45
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It is well-known on the forum that I use VCSH, BIV, VFIJX, FSITX. Here are their YTD performances according to M*:
+0.45% VCSH
-0.06% BIV
-0.12% VFIJX
-0.26% FSITX

I am not worried about the performance of my bond funds. I have bought lots more FSITX recently and it has gone up since my last purchase so the YTD above from M* is not my YTD. See this thread: LOL!'s Market Timing Newsletter

And I wish to note for others that I did not pick arbitrary timelines. I picked times where you announced a purchase or started a thread.

That's cool, LOL.

You stick to your bonds.

I'll stick to my stocks.

Let's see what comes out ahead.

LOL
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Old 03-27-2013, 06:55 AM   #46
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Thank you. I will stick to my bonds AND stocks.
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Old 03-28-2013, 07:22 PM   #47
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I'm planning on leaving that bond money in their stable accounts (1.75and 3%) until the bond funds seem to bottom out in future years.
When will that be? See, that's the problem. You can not easily time the market and there are limited options other than to pick an asset allocation for the long term and stay the course.
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Old 03-28-2013, 08:08 PM   #48
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Yes, I understand it's market timing. When will it happen? *shrug*. Two years? Three? But I'd rather have a stable value now. Considering the cash as fixed income vs equity, I'm still maintaining my AA - just not putting it in something teetering on the edge. Hedging a bit. After interest rates have risen and value has dropped, I'll be more comfortable putting new money into bonds.

Since I won't need to make withdrawals in retirement unless I wish, I can play cautious.
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