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03-26-2013, 08:18 PM
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#41
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 576
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Quote:
Originally Posted by seraphim
But how long can they keep up the manipulation?
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As long as all the Central Banks, facing the same threat from the enormous debts of their respective governments, can maintain a united front against the bond vigilantes? Conventional savers, many of them in retirement, looking at zero % interest rate and now the possibility of taking a big haircut like what happened in Cypress, be damned. I am not disagreeing with you, but I put forth again, we are giving in very abnormal time.
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03-26-2013, 08:39 PM
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#42
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Sarasota, FL & Vermont
Posts: 36,375
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Quote:
Originally Posted by seraphim
Thanks for the link. It makes sense.
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I read the article as bearish on Treasuries and bond mutual funds with a concentration of treasuries but not necessarily bearish on bonds in general.
I actually don't own any treasuries and haven't for a year or so. Mostly short and intermediate term corporates for me at this point.
__________________
If something cannot endure laughter.... it cannot endure.
Patience is the art of concealing your impatience.
Slow and steady wins the race.
Retired Jan 2012 at age 56
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03-26-2013, 09:03 PM
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#43
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 576
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pb4uski
I read the article as bearish on Treasuries and bond mutual funds with a concentration of treasuries but not necessarily bearish on bonds in general.
I actually don't own any treasuries and haven't for a year or so. Mostly short and intermediate term corporates for me at this point.
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More often some corporate bonds tank before the US Treasuries because of the individual fortune of the company, but usually corporate bonds and US Treasuries move in unison and in the same direction. And if US Treasuries, considered the safest investment, do badly, do not see how it would not adversely affect the general bond market.
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03-26-2013, 09:23 PM
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#44
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Sarasota, FL & Vermont
Posts: 36,375
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The difference IMO is that for corporates you are getting fairly compensated for the risks you are taking and for Treasuries you are not getting adequately compensated for the risk you are taking.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...angerous-.html
__________________
If something cannot endure laughter.... it cannot endure.
Patience is the art of concealing your impatience.
Slow and steady wins the race.
Retired Jan 2012 at age 56
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03-27-2013, 01:41 AM
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#45
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Dryer sheet aficionado
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 44
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LOL!
It is well-known on the forum that I use VCSH, BIV, VFIJX, FSITX. Here are their YTD performances according to M*:
+0.45% VCSH
-0.06% BIV
-0.12% VFIJX
-0.26% FSITX
I am not worried about the performance of my bond funds. I have bought lots more FSITX recently and it has gone up since my last purchase so the YTD above from M* is not my YTD. See this thread: http://www.early-retirement.org/foru...ml#post1286002
And I wish to note for others that I did not pick arbitrary timelines. I picked times where you announced a purchase or started a thread.
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That's cool, LOL.
You stick to your bonds.
I'll stick to my stocks.
Let's see what comes out ahead.
LOL
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03-27-2013, 05:55 AM
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#46
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 10,252
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Thank you. I will stick to my bonds AND stocks.
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03-28-2013, 06:22 PM
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#47
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: South Texas~29N/98W Just West of Woman Hollering Creek
Posts: 6,674
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Quote:
I'm planning on leaving that bond money in their stable accounts (1.75and 3%) until the bond funds seem to bottom out in future years.
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When will that be? See, that's the problem. You can not easily time the market and there are limited options other than to pick an asset allocation for the long term and stay the course.
__________________
Part-Owner of Texas
Outside of a dog, a book is man's best friend. Inside of a dog, it's too dark to read. Groucho Marx
In dire need of: faster horses, younger woman, older whiskey, more money.
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03-28-2013, 07:08 PM
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#48
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Mar 2012
Posts: 1,555
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Yes, I understand it's market timing. When will it happen? *shrug*. Two years? Three? But I'd rather have a stable value now. Considering the cash as fixed income vs equity, I'm still maintaining my AA - just not putting it in something teetering on the edge. Hedging a bit. After interest rates have risen and value has dropped, I'll be more comfortable putting new money into bonds.
Since I won't need to make withdrawals in retirement unless I wish, I can play cautious.
__________________
"Growing old is no excuse for growing up."
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