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Brexit...neeed more
Old 07-01-2016, 09:56 AM   #1
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Brexit...neeed more

Looks like the market is LIKING this Brexit thing. Maybe we should look for some more country splits?

You have to wonder if anyone knows beyond the short term what news will do to the dow?
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Old 07-01-2016, 10:02 AM   #2
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Yeah, just shows that nobody knows, not even the top economists, investors, hedge funds.

Why anyone would pay someone to actively manage their money when the whole thing is a dartboard is beyond me. How much is a dartboard nowadays, $20? That is like 0.00001% of the average portfolio on here and much cheaper than active management.
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Old 07-01-2016, 10:14 AM   #3
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Oil went up and that is what the market liked. Brexit is still going to roil the markets ahead and create some headwinds. In the end, I think the UK will be diminished.
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Old 07-01-2016, 10:22 AM   #4
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Exactly - this is a good example of how short-term market movements absolutely cannot be predicted.
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Old 07-01-2016, 10:24 AM   #5
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Exactly - this is a good example of how short-term market movements absolutely cannot be predicted.
That, and also how investing around current events is a losing approach.
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Old 07-01-2016, 10:36 AM   #6
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I haven't been following the Brexit news, nor I had I looked at my finances in the last month. But I've seen the neighbor day trader happily walking his dog the past several mornings. So I knew things weren't too bad.
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Old 07-01-2016, 11:01 AM   #7
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That, and also how investing around current events is a losing approach.
You can probably guess what the longer term effect will be. But there will be so many ups and downs before you get there that it's not actionable. Just better to rebalance whenever ups and downs become extreme.
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Old 07-01-2016, 11:02 AM   #8
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It's the end of Brexit uncertainty that's in part driving up equities.
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Old 07-01-2016, 11:08 AM   #9
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It's the end of Brexit uncertainty that's in part driving up equities.
I don't think there is any end to the Brexit uncertainty at all.

The "surprise" of it may be over. But no one has any idea how it will actually play out.

Big market players needed a few days to reposition.

Now, I suspect the feeling that Brexit may make the Fed more cautious about raising interest rates has more to do with equities rising.
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Old 07-01-2016, 11:12 AM   #10
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The vote really punched a hole in the 10-year Treasury rate. Down over a quarter point.
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Old 07-01-2016, 03:54 PM   #11
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The market rebound shows that the initial drop was an emotional reaction that had no merit.
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Old 07-01-2016, 04:07 PM   #12
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Looks like the market is LIKING this Brexit thing. Maybe we should look for some more country splits?
I assume you are saying this in jest. Brexit hasn't yet happened - that was merely a referendum. Brexit, if it happens, won't be for a while yet and at this point, no-one knows what form it will take, if it even happens at all.
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Old 07-02-2016, 05:16 AM   #13
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To be fair to Mr. Market, some things haven't rebounded:
* Banks with UK exposure: RBS, Deutsche Bank, Lloyds, Barclays
* Airlines with UK hq and alot of business there: Easyjet, Ryanair

So it seems it went from "aaaaaah!!!" for everything to localized depression.

The UK after all is a very minor component of the world economy. And as others have pointed, they're not out yet.

Even the leaders of the leave faction have now announced they won't be activating Article 50 this year. And a few other are maneuvering for elections to try and circumvent the referendum.
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Old 07-02-2016, 06:58 AM   #14
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Now that the television news anchors are through hyperventilating, it seems that the sun still came up in the east, coffee still tastes good and the markets went up despite their prognostications of impending doom.
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Old 07-02-2016, 10:48 AM   #15
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Now that the television news anchors are through hyperventilating, it seems that the sun still came up in the east, coffee still tastes good and the markets went up despite their prognostications of impending doom.
That's my take on it, too.

I have started to approach the doom-n-gloom on the news, the same way I approach doom-n-gloom stock market prognostications. Basically, I become a spectator. The similarity is that there's nothing that I can do about scary world events, and likewise it seems that the best thing I can do with my investments is nothing.

Maybe I could coin a new phrase... the "Pass The Popcorn" philosophy for investing or for life in general.
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Old 07-02-2016, 10:52 AM   #16
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Looking back, the pundits were also wrong about how long it would take to recover from the great recession.
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Old 07-02-2016, 11:03 AM   #17
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Looking back, the pundits were also wrong about how long it would take to recover from the great recession.
You're right. The ones that I read were overwhelmingly in the "this time it's different" camp, and were predicting we would get stuck in the recession for decades. I went ahead and retired in 2009 anyway.
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Old 07-02-2016, 11:15 AM   #18
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The market rebound shows that the initial drop was an emotional reaction that had no merit.

The initial drop had plenty of merit. I used the short drop in the S and P 500 as an opportunity to fund the grandkids' 529b's. I've been dollar cost averaging into them for a number of years but when an event triggered pullback like this occurs, I'll reach out for next month's money and take advantage. It doesn't always work out nicely like this one, but more often than not.
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