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Old 06-26-2016, 02:14 PM   #61
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Don't know the percentage... just know that the portfolio returned to its value on 5/21/16.
So, the run up to Brexit was lost.
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Old 06-26-2016, 02:22 PM   #62
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http://www.forecast-chart.com/historical-nikkei-225.html



Always, maybe. But, in some cases (Japan), it might take longer than my daughters lifetime.



The complacency of this board worries me.

What's the alternative?

Maybe this will be bad, maybe it won't. History has shown both. There's plenty of markets that never recovered. That's why you diversify.

Odds of a complete collapse of all
global markets seems very unlikely. And if it does happen, then I doubt we'll be worrying about our portfolios.
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Old 06-26-2016, 02:31 PM   #63
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I did not lose any paper but our portfolio went down 3.33%
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Old 06-26-2016, 04:54 PM   #64
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We were up roughly $12k on Thursday (to a new high for investment accounts in 2016), and then down roughly $33k on Friday.

We are about to sign a contract on the sale of our apartment in Beijing, which should net us roughly $2 million after paying off the mortgage and paying US capital gains. Up to $1 million of that will purchase us a new house in Seattle sometime in the next year (hopefully -- market is insane here, too). I'll probably keep 2-3 years of projected living expenses in relatively liquid accounts, planning to invest the rest and live primarily off the dividends. We already have just over 1 million in retirement/kids college/other investments and savings. So from our position, now is actually a great time for the markets to be tanking as we will have plenty of "dry powder" to work with in the coming months. We ended up being accidental dirty market timers from 2009-2013 (bought Beijing property at bottom of dip in local market in 2009, then maxed out retirement accounts until we decided to put kids in a more expensive/better quality school), so kind of hoping we can replicate that on the next market downturn/run up. Will be fine financially either way -- both RIP and Firecalc show excellent results, with my net worth at age 100 being anywhere from 3-50 million.
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Old 06-26-2016, 05:04 PM   #65
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Any conclusion is not going to be rapid. It's going to be a drawn out process.
Yeah, that is what makes this event different from some others, at least in my mind. Just the negotiations between the UK and the EU to work out the terms of the exit will take at least 2 years, they say......and I've seen estimates much longer than that. Lots and lots of uncertainty over how this will all play out, which I think is going to have the markets on edge for a long while to come.
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Old 06-26-2016, 06:11 PM   #66
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Down only about 1.4%, up about 14% for the year still. high quality dividend paying stocks.
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Old 06-26-2016, 06:37 PM   #67
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What's the alternative?

Maybe this will be bad, maybe it won't. History has shown both. There's plenty of markets that never recovered. That's why you diversify.

Odds of a complete collapse of all
global markets seems very unlikely. And if it does happen, then I doubt we'll be worrying about our portfolios.
The alternative?
Review what held up on Friday and what fell more than the indexes. Rebalance toward the winners because there's more excrement to hit the fan.
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Old 06-26-2016, 06:50 PM   #68
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Lost about 2.8%, but thanks to a large switch to munis last year, there was a bit of green to be seen. My good buddy VIXY was up a mere 24% so that felt good. All my VIXY holdings have July calls written at 9,10,11, and 12 so it is too early to see how that story will end.
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Old 06-26-2016, 06:52 PM   #69
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Lost about 2.8%, but thanks to a large switch to munis last year, there was a bit of green to be seen. My good buddy VIXY was up a mere 24% so that felt good. All my VIXY holdings have July calls written at 9,10,11, and 12 so it is too early to see how that story will end.
Muni's and high yield muni's have been a big bright spot over the last year or two.
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Old 06-26-2016, 06:56 PM   #70
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Lost about 2.8%, but thanks to a large switch to munis last year, there was a bit of green to be seen. My good buddy VIXY was up a mere 24% so that felt good. All my VIXY holdings have July calls written at 9,10,11, and 12 so it is too early to see how that story will end.
Just looked at VIXY. Down 34+% YTD. Ouch.
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Old 06-26-2016, 07:55 PM   #71
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Just looked at VIXY. Down 34+% YTD. Ouch.
Yes, but the big swings are the beauty of it. Combined with SVXY and the deployment of covered calls, it is not as risky as it may seem. I currently only own VIXY. This certainly is not a buy and hold situation, but rather a playground for dirty rotten market timers.
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Old 06-26-2016, 08:01 PM   #72
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Yes, but the big swings are the beauty of it. Combined with SVXY and the deployment of covered calls, it is not as risky as it may seem. I currently only own VIXY. This certainly is not a buy and hold situation, but rather a playground for dirty rotten market timers.
Hope you're good at time'n.
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Old 06-26-2016, 08:17 PM   #73
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Hope you're good at time'n.
When you are timing the entire S&P it is a little easier than some small cap stock. Plus you have (hopefully) a 6-7% option premium to help. With the call expiring in perhaps 4 weeks you have a little time on your side. If it is called away that's fine..The current times are a great example. I think we probably will be able to say (this week) that it is a safe bet that the market will likely be higher or stable in 3 or 4 weeks--seems like an easy call. All we really care about is that we don't have a major drop from here that persists for a month.
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Old 06-26-2016, 08:25 PM   #74
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When you are timing the entire S&P it is a little easier than some small cap stock. Plus you have (hopefully) a 6-7% option premium to help. With the call expiring in perhaps 4 weeks you have a little time on your side. If it is called away that's fine..The current times are a great example. I think we probably will be able to say (this week) that it is a safe bet that the market will likely be higher or stable in 3 or 4 weeks--seems like an easy call. All we really care about is that we don't have a major drop from here that persists for a month.
I just get queasy when someone says they know the future.
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Old 06-26-2016, 08:32 PM   #75
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I think we probably will be able to say (this week) that it is a safe bet that the market will likely be higher or stable lower in 3 or 4 weeks--seems like an easy call.
FIFY
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Old 06-26-2016, 08:54 PM   #76
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FIFY
Ummmm, actually you need to bet on the price at option expiration, in our example that is July 15. To win we need the market to be unchanged to higher on, or slightly before that date. Even a modest decline would be acceptable, but my bet is for unchanged or higher.
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Old 06-26-2016, 08:57 PM   #77
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Ummmm, actually you need to bet...
You know I don't bet! I don't even buy green bananas...
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Old 06-26-2016, 09:07 PM   #78
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You know I don't bet! I don't even buy green bananas...
If I had all those snakes and scorpions surrounding me, I wouldn't buy green bananas either.
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Old 06-26-2016, 09:22 PM   #79
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If I had all those snakes and scorpions surrounding me, I wouldn't buy green bananas either.
Green bananas are the ones I buy.
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Old 06-27-2016, 03:46 AM   #80
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Down 1.23% for the day overall as the stock portion was offset by the day increase of 1.27% long term bonds increase (BLV).


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