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Old 06-27-2016, 07:09 AM   #81
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I just get queasy when someone says they know the future.
I just get flashbacks...
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Old 06-27-2016, 07:13 AM   #82
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Down about 2.5% for my 100% Canadian equity portfolio. Not worried much. I think there is actually a reasonable chance they will find a way not to leave the EU. Governing by referendum doesn't work very well.
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Old 06-27-2016, 08:28 AM   #83
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Mine was down 2.5%. My REIT holding survived.
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Old 06-27-2016, 10:11 AM   #84
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Ummmm, actually you need to bet on the price at option expiration, in our example that is July 15. To win we need the market to be unchanged to higher on, or slightly before that date. Even a modest decline would be acceptable, but my bet is for unchanged or higher.
OK, Here's a paper trade.

A few minutes ago.
Did a buy/write trade buying 100 SVXY and sold the July $41 call which expires in 18 days.
Stk price $39.77 option sold for 3.60. That's 9% on our money for 18 days.
If the overall market rises by July 15 our stock will be sold if it exceeds $41. That will provide another $100 profit after commissions. Total profit for 18 days is ~ 11.6%.
Now the downside--If the market continues to fall, we may end up keeping our stock for better or worse. If it has not fallen drastically, we could sell a new call and start the process all over.
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Old 06-27-2016, 12:04 PM   #85
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I never understood why they prominently display one-day gains and losses on all of these web sites, then give you their "stick-to-your-guns", "this too will pass", advice. It would be easy to default to show a five year gain/loss figure, and let people opt into a shorter horizon. Maybe it's because they say one thing (don't trade), but they really want you to generate commission revenue for them by seeing red and bailing-out.

That being said, I agree with the January/February was much worse thing. Down 1.3% from 6/1 as of Friday, but still up about 1% for the year. Haven't looked at the market today. Do I want to?
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Old 06-27-2016, 12:12 PM   #86
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That being said, I agree with the January/February was much worse thing. Down 1.3% from 6/1 as of Friday, but still up about 1% for the year. Haven't looked at the market today. Do I want to?
Wait until the market rebounds.
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Old 06-27-2016, 12:49 PM   #87
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Just put in a cash covered put on SPY.

See where this goes in the coming weeks, I've got 3 more bullets in the chamber.
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Old 06-27-2016, 12:55 PM   #88
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Multiple BAC STO 11 P Expiry 11/18/16 @ 66c on day trade. Let's see if I get any
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Old 06-27-2016, 02:41 PM   #89
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Woopsy daisy, UK lost its AAA status from S&P:

UK loses top credit rating from S&P - BBC News
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Old 06-27-2016, 02:46 PM   #90
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Got them. I believe BAC will be above 11 in November but won't mind owning it at that
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Old 06-27-2016, 04:32 PM   #91
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Yeah, that is what makes this event different from some others, at least in my mind. Just the negotiations between the UK and the EU to work out the terms of the exit will take at least 2 years, they say......and I've seen estimates much longer than that. Lots and lots of uncertainty over how this will all play out, which I think is going to have the markets on edge for a long while to come.
THIS is why you don't put complicated Treaties out for a vote among the general population. Too many people voted on simple "sound bites" on something with massive repercussion's. Elected officials in a Representative Parliament is how you do these things, because then sanity is more likely to prevail. If Scotland and N. Ireland vote to leave the UK, I can't see anything but misery for the now rump state of England.
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Old 06-27-2016, 05:14 PM   #92
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Portfolio up 5% since i retired end of Jan 2016 (of course it was up 6.4% just prior to Brexit), and so far I'm living off pension plus part of my two to three cash stash, so really not hurt at all lifestyle wise. Do hope, for the sake of those most affected in the UK, expats, etc that this does not take years for the market to get over the panic about it, as i believe as others have said, the end result will be a series of agreements that make market relationships about the same as pre-Brexit, except hopefully more to the UK's favor as Cameron had been asking for. I guess travel across borders will now be more of a hassle (sorry for ignorance, the extent of my international travel has been Canada, Mexico, and once to Italy 12 yrs ago)
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Old 06-27-2016, 05:23 PM   #93
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If anything, things will not go the UK's way. They don't have much leverage at all and the EU pols are not going to make things "nice". They will dictate terms much like they did to Greece. The Brits shot themselves in the foot on this one. Stupid and unnecessary.
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Old 06-27-2016, 06:02 PM   #94
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Interesting................perhaps he was just 'blowing smoke", but there was this today from Boris Johnson:

"It is clear that some have feelings of dismay, and of loss, and confusion," Johnson wrote in an opinion piece for the Telegraph newspaper Monday. He blamed a "climate of apprehension," adding: "At home and abroad, the negative consequences are being wildly overdone, and the upside is being ignored."

I had always thought the three strongest countries in the EU were UK, Germany and France, and that, once all the panic subsides (admittedly could take a while), in the end the EU will need the UK more than vice versa (perhaps why EU are insisting the exit happen quick before panic subsides and world realizes this?), as all the other countries in the EU, except for these three (frankly always thought the UK was the strongest of the three, and wisest too in keeping the pound, which yes is taking a pounding now (could not resist)) are basket cases to one degree or another
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Old 06-27-2016, 09:25 PM   #95
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I see it as mamadogmamacat, except in my view France is not much economically either. Germany and the U.K. are the engine, such as it is, France is intermediate, and the other Core states are welfare clients. The only way Italy or Spain or Portugal are going to buy anything much is with vendor financing.
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Old 06-27-2016, 09:26 PM   #96
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Isnt Denmark solid?
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Old 06-27-2016, 09:58 PM   #97
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THIS is why you don't put complicated Treaties out for a vote among the general population. Too many people voted on simple "sound bites" on something with massive repercussion's. Elected officials in a Representative Parliament is how you do these things, because then sanity is more likely to prevail. If Scotland and N. Ireland vote to leave the UK, I can't see anything but misery for the now rump state of England.
Yeah it's a real shame the peon populace had a say in the way their country should head........Maybe the good old US should allow the people to vote on things like this. Can't be any worse than it is now.
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Old 06-27-2016, 11:02 PM   #98
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Then I guess the founders of our country were wrong on how they set things up. Democracy is fine in theory until the "peon" class turns into a howling mob which can and does happen. That is why the US is a Republic, so that an elected body can make decisions instead of the mob.


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Old 06-28-2016, 10:05 AM   #99
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Thanks, all.

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