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Brexit revote
Old 06-25-2016, 09:51 AM   #1
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Brexit revote

So, in the news now is the potential of a Brexit revote. I wonder how soon that could happen and if the decision was then reversed (to stay in the EU), what would that do to the market?
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Old 06-25-2016, 09:56 AM   #2
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In the first place, the vote they just took is a non-binding vote, so there is still a chance nothing will change. As far as a re-vote, why not? Just keep voting until they get the result they want. Then the other side can call for a re-vote until they get their way again. That will keep the voters busy while nothing actually happens. Politics as usual.
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Old 06-25-2016, 09:59 AM   #3
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Originally Posted by Earl E Retyre View Post
So, in the news now is the potential of a Brexit revote. I wonder how soon that could happen and if the decision was then reversed (to stay in the EU), what would that do to the market?
I suspect it would reclaim the losses. I do not expect any country to actually leave the EU. There may be additional concessions, but never leaving. The EU is here to stay. No country will go broke, not even Greece.

The vote was non-binding. If Brexit actually happens, it would be like TX leaving the US.
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Old 06-25-2016, 10:01 AM   #4
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As a UK citizen (albeit living in the US) I signed the petition. Currently, it has about 1.6 million signatures, which is enough to qualify for consideration for a Parliamentary debate.

There is quite a bit I'd like to say on this subject regarding my thoughts on how either a revote could happen, or the UK may avoid withdrawing from the EU. However, I don't feel sufficiently versed in the art of keeping Porky at bay, so will refrain! Regarding your question, even if a second referendum is held, and/or the UK doesn't leave the EU, enough time will have elapsed to have caused considerable damage both to the UK and other markets, I think.

OTOH, what goes down can (and will, at least eventually) come up again. I'm sure you can tell I'm a passive indexer
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Old 06-25-2016, 10:02 AM   #5
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I saw #regrexit in an online story today--some interesting things come up if you google it. Here's one about an online petition to revote: Brexit: Do you #Regrexit? - CNNPolitics.com
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Old 06-25-2016, 10:07 AM   #6
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In the first place, the vote they just took is a non-binding vote, so there is still a chance nothing will change. As far as a re-vote, why not? Just keep voting until they get the result they want. Then the other side can call for a re-vote until they get their way again. That will keep the voters busy while nothing actually happens. Politics as usual.

Just like my local school tax budget vote. It gets voted down, try again until it passes. Always passes by the third try.
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Old 06-25-2016, 10:12 AM   #7
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As far as a re-vote, why not? Just keep voting until they get the result they want.
"The floggings will continue until morale improves".
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Old 06-25-2016, 10:30 AM   #8
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Some are posting that this is a non binding vote and nothing will happen...

I doubt that... Cameron said he is leaving so someone who wants the exit to go forward will become Prime Minister... so the powers that want an exit are going to be in power.... why would you think they will not carry it out


Also, the EU has stated they want the UK to exit as quickly as possible... that they are not going to offer concessions.... heck, from what I know (and this is not much) the UK already gets the most concessions from the EU anyhow... at some time the rest of the EU has to say "NO" to someone who really does not want to be in the bloc....
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Old 06-25-2016, 10:53 AM   #9
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.... why would you think they will not carry it out
Mainly because of the news indicating that about 2 million signatures so far have signed an online petitions saying, "We the undersigned call upon HM Government to implement a rule that if the remain or leave vote is less than 60% based a turnout less than 75% there should be another referendum." And apparently a parliamentary committee, which can put forward petitions for debate by lawmakers, will consider the proposal Tuesday.
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Old 06-25-2016, 11:06 AM   #10
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Some are posting that this is a non binding vote and nothing will happen...

I doubt that... Cameron said he is leaving so someone who wants the exit to go forward will become Prime Minister... so the powers that want an exit are going to be in power.... why would you think they will not carry it out??
It was a 48 to 52 vote. No matter what way you go, you irritate ~50% of the people. It's a no-win no matter what.

The easy street is to stay and keep Britain (or whatever country it is morphing into) in the EU.
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Old 06-25-2016, 11:08 AM   #11
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I suspect it would reclaim the losses. I do not expect any country to actually leave the EU. There may be additional concessions, but never leaving. The EU is here to stay. No country will go broke, not even Greece.

The vote was non-binding. If Brexit actually happens, it would be like TX leaving the US.
Quebec had a referendum about 2 decades ago on whether or not to leave Canada. It was a close vote, about a 1% difference staying in Canada over leaving Canada. If the results were the other way around, I truly think Quebec would have left Canada.
IMO, these types of referendums need be more than 50%+1 because of how sentiment changes over the years. The separatism movement in Quebec is no where close to what is was in the mid 90's.
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Old 06-25-2016, 11:22 AM   #12
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It's interesting that after a 52% yes vote, that the media has only focused on those who voted "no". The opinion of the majority "yes" vote doesn't seem to be that important...
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Old 06-25-2016, 11:36 AM   #13
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Quebec had a referendum about 2 decades ago on whether or not to leave Canada. It was a close vote, about a 1% difference staying in Canada over leaving Canada. If the results were the other way around, I truly think Quebec would have left Canada.
IMO, these types of referendums need be more than 50%+1 because of how sentiment changes over the years. The separatism movement in Quebec is no where close to what is was in the mid 90's.
The vote was about immigration and refugees. If Quebec received 100K+ refugees, rather than 2500, a new succession vote may have a different outcome.
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Old 06-25-2016, 11:43 AM   #14
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What? Texas is leaving?
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Old 06-25-2016, 11:43 AM   #15
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The vote was about immigration and refugees.
The Brexit vote was also about leaving a failing socialist union and regaining independence and control over their own future.
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Old 06-25-2016, 11:45 AM   #16
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"The floggings will continue until morale improves".
I've always enjoyed that. The Megacorp motto. I think it would be reasonable to negotiate the Brexit terms and then hold a final vote when they really know what they are voting on.
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Old 06-25-2016, 11:48 AM   #17
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I've always enjoyed that. The Megacorp motto. I think it would be reasonable to negotiate the Brexit terms and then hold a final vote when they really know what they are voting on.
I seriously doubt people would be talking about a revote if it had gone the other way. <sarcasm>Rather it would have demonstrated how smart and well informed the population is.</sarcasm> Geez.
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Old 06-25-2016, 11:55 AM   #18
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The vote was about immigration and refugees. If Quebec received 100K+ refugees, rather than 2500, a new succession vote may have a different outcome.
That's definitely a core issue but so is the need for making concessions in a globalization economy vs independence.
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Old 06-25-2016, 12:05 PM   #19
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I've always enjoyed that. The Megacorp motto. I think it would be reasonable to negotiate the Brexit terms and then hold a final vote when they really know what they are voting on.
That does sound reasonable, but there is no provision for a revote in Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty.

Article 50
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Old 06-25-2016, 12:11 PM   #20
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What? Texas is leaving?

That would be "Texit"...
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