Join Early Retirement Today
Closed Thread
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Brexit revote
Old 06-25-2016, 10:51 AM   #1
Recycles dryer sheets
Earl E Retyre's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 257
Brexit revote

So, in the news now is the potential of a Brexit revote. I wonder how soon that could happen and if the decision was then reversed (to stay in the EU), what would that do to the market?
__________________

__________________
Earl E Retyre is offline  
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 06-25-2016, 10:56 AM   #2
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
harley's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Following the nice weather
Posts: 6,418
In the first place, the vote they just took is a non-binding vote, so there is still a chance nothing will change. As far as a re-vote, why not? Just keep voting until they get the result they want. Then the other side can call for a re-vote until they get their way again. That will keep the voters busy while nothing actually happens. Politics as usual.
__________________

__________________
"Good judgment comes from experience. Experience comes from bad judgement." - Will Rogers, or maybe Sam Clemens
DW and I - FIREd at 50 (7/06), living off assets
harley is offline  
Old 06-25-2016, 10:59 AM   #3
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Senator's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Eagan, MN
Posts: 3,042
Quote:
Originally Posted by Earl E Retyre View Post
So, in the news now is the potential of a Brexit revote. I wonder how soon that could happen and if the decision was then reversed (to stay in the EU), what would that do to the market?
I suspect it would reclaim the losses. I do not expect any country to actually leave the EU. There may be additional concessions, but never leaving. The EU is here to stay. No country will go broke, not even Greece.

The vote was non-binding. If Brexit actually happens, it would be like TX leaving the US.
__________________
FIRE no later than 7/5/2016 at 56 (done), securing '16 401K match (done), getting '15 401K match (done), LTI Bonus (done), Perf bonus (done), maxing out 401K (done), picking up 1,000 hours to get another year of pension (done), July 1st benefits (vacation day, healthcare) (done), July 4th holiday. 0 days left. (done) OFFICIALLY RETIRED 7/5/2016!!
Senator is offline  
Old 06-25-2016, 11:01 AM   #4
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Major Tom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: SF East Bay
Posts: 3,128
As a UK citizen (albeit living in the US) I signed the petition. Currently, it has about 1.6 million signatures, which is enough to qualify for consideration for a Parliamentary debate.

There is quite a bit I'd like to say on this subject regarding my thoughts on how either a revote could happen, or the UK may avoid withdrawing from the EU. However, I don't feel sufficiently versed in the art of keeping Porky at bay, so will refrain! Regarding your question, even if a second referendum is held, and/or the UK doesn't leave the EU, enough time will have elapsed to have caused considerable damage both to the UK and other markets, I think.

OTOH, what goes down can (and will, at least eventually) come up again. I'm sure you can tell I'm a passive indexer
__________________
ER, for all intents and purposes. Part-time income <5% of annual expenditure.
Major Tom is offline  
Old 06-25-2016, 11:02 AM   #5
Moderator Emeritus
Bestwifeever's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 16,372
I saw #regrexit in an online story today--some interesting things come up if you google it. Here's one about an online petition to revote: Brexit: Do you #Regrexit? - CNNPolitics.com
__________________
“Would you like an adventure now, or would you like to have your tea first?” J.M. Barrie, Peter Pan
Bestwifeever is offline  
Old 06-25-2016, 11:07 AM   #6
Full time employment: Posting here.
GravitySucks's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Syracuse
Posts: 989
Quote:
Originally Posted by harley View Post
In the first place, the vote they just took is a non-binding vote, so there is still a chance nothing will change. As far as a re-vote, why not? Just keep voting until they get the result they want. Then the other side can call for a re-vote until they get their way again. That will keep the voters busy while nothing actually happens. Politics as usual.

Just like my local school tax budget vote. It gets voted down, try again until it passes. Always passes by the third try.
__________________
“No, not rich. I am a poor man with money, which is not the same thing"
GravitySucks is offline  
Old 06-25-2016, 11:12 AM   #7
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Nemo2's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2011
Location: Belleville, ONT
Posts: 4,302
Quote:
Originally Posted by harley View Post
As far as a re-vote, why not? Just keep voting until they get the result they want.
"The floggings will continue until morale improves".
__________________
"Exit, pursued by a bear."

The Winter's Tale, William Shakespeare
Nemo2 is offline  
Old 06-25-2016, 11:30 AM   #8
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 13,253
Some are posting that this is a non binding vote and nothing will happen...

I doubt that... Cameron said he is leaving so someone who wants the exit to go forward will become Prime Minister... so the powers that want an exit are going to be in power.... why would you think they will not carry it out


Also, the EU has stated they want the UK to exit as quickly as possible... that they are not going to offer concessions.... heck, from what I know (and this is not much) the UK already gets the most concessions from the EU anyhow... at some time the rest of the EU has to say "NO" to someone who really does not want to be in the bloc....
__________________
Texas Proud is offline  
Old 06-25-2016, 11:53 AM   #9
Recycles dryer sheets
Earl E Retyre's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 257
Quote:
Originally Posted by Texas Proud View Post
.... why would you think they will not carry it out
Mainly because of the news indicating that about 2 million signatures so far have signed an online petitions saying, "We the undersigned call upon HM Government to implement a rule that if the remain or leave vote is less than 60% based a turnout less than 75% there should be another referendum." And apparently a parliamentary committee, which can put forward petitions for debate by lawmakers, will consider the proposal Tuesday.
__________________
Earl E Retyre is offline  
Old 06-25-2016, 12:06 PM   #10
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Senator's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Eagan, MN
Posts: 3,042
Quote:
Originally Posted by Texas Proud View Post
Some are posting that this is a non binding vote and nothing will happen...

I doubt that... Cameron said he is leaving so someone who wants the exit to go forward will become Prime Minister... so the powers that want an exit are going to be in power.... why would you think they will not carry it out??
It was a 48 to 52 vote. No matter what way you go, you irritate ~50% of the people. It's a no-win no matter what.

The easy street is to stay and keep Britain (or whatever country it is morphing into) in the EU.
__________________
FIRE no later than 7/5/2016 at 56 (done), securing '16 401K match (done), getting '15 401K match (done), LTI Bonus (done), Perf bonus (done), maxing out 401K (done), picking up 1,000 hours to get another year of pension (done), July 1st benefits (vacation day, healthcare) (done), July 4th holiday. 0 days left. (done) OFFICIALLY RETIRED 7/5/2016!!
Senator is offline  
Old 06-25-2016, 12:08 PM   #11
Recycles dryer sheets
YVRRocketSurgery's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2015
Location: Vancouver
Posts: 338
Quote:
Originally Posted by Senator View Post
I suspect it would reclaim the losses. I do not expect any country to actually leave the EU. There may be additional concessions, but never leaving. The EU is here to stay. No country will go broke, not even Greece.

The vote was non-binding. If Brexit actually happens, it would be like TX leaving the US.
Quebec had a referendum about 2 decades ago on whether or not to leave Canada. It was a close vote, about a 1% difference staying in Canada over leaving Canada. If the results were the other way around, I truly think Quebec would have left Canada.
IMO, these types of referendums need be more than 50%+1 because of how sentiment changes over the years. The separatism movement in Quebec is no where close to what is was in the mid 90's.
__________________
Target April 2022
"Life moves pretty fast. If you don't stop and look around for a while, you could miss it."
YVRRocketSurgery is offline  
Old 06-25-2016, 12:22 PM   #12
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Mar 2015
Location: Winnipeg
Posts: 1,295
It's interesting that after a 52% yes vote, that the media has only focused on those who voted "no". The opinion of the majority "yes" vote doesn't seem to be that important...
__________________
Music Lover is online now  
Old 06-25-2016, 12:36 PM   #13
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Senator's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Eagan, MN
Posts: 3,042
Quote:
Originally Posted by YVRRocketSurgery View Post
Quebec had a referendum about 2 decades ago on whether or not to leave Canada. It was a close vote, about a 1% difference staying in Canada over leaving Canada. If the results were the other way around, I truly think Quebec would have left Canada.
IMO, these types of referendums need be more than 50%+1 because of how sentiment changes over the years. The separatism movement in Quebec is no where close to what is was in the mid 90's.
The vote was about immigration and refugees. If Quebec received 100K+ refugees, rather than 2500, a new succession vote may have a different outcome.
__________________
FIRE no later than 7/5/2016 at 56 (done), securing '16 401K match (done), getting '15 401K match (done), LTI Bonus (done), Perf bonus (done), maxing out 401K (done), picking up 1,000 hours to get another year of pension (done), July 1st benefits (vacation day, healthcare) (done), July 4th holiday. 0 days left. (done) OFFICIALLY RETIRED 7/5/2016!!
Senator is offline  
Old 06-25-2016, 12:43 PM   #14
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
target2019's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 3,705
What? Texas is leaving?
__________________
target2019 is offline  
Old 06-25-2016, 12:43 PM   #15
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Mar 2015
Location: Winnipeg
Posts: 1,295
Quote:
Originally Posted by Senator View Post
The vote was about immigration and refugees.
The Brexit vote was also about leaving a failing socialist union and regaining independence and control over their own future.
__________________
Music Lover is online now  
Old 06-25-2016, 12:45 PM   #16
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
DrRoy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2015
Location: Michigan
Posts: 1,713
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nemo2 View Post
"The floggings will continue until morale improves".
I've always enjoyed that. The Megacorp motto. I think it would be reasonable to negotiate the Brexit terms and then hold a final vote when they really know what they are voting on.
__________________
"The mountains are calling, and I must go." John Muir
DrRoy is offline  
Old 06-25-2016, 12:48 PM   #17
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
mpeirce's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2012
Location: Columbus area
Posts: 1,589
Quote:
Originally Posted by DrRoy View Post
I've always enjoyed that. The Megacorp motto. I think it would be reasonable to negotiate the Brexit terms and then hold a final vote when they really know what they are voting on.
I seriously doubt people would be talking about a revote if it had gone the other way. <sarcasm>Rather it would have demonstrated how smart and well informed the population is.</sarcasm> Geez.
__________________
mpeirce is online now  
Old 06-25-2016, 12:55 PM   #18
Recycles dryer sheets
YVRRocketSurgery's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2015
Location: Vancouver
Posts: 338
Quote:
Originally Posted by Senator View Post
The vote was about immigration and refugees. If Quebec received 100K+ refugees, rather than 2500, a new succession vote may have a different outcome.
That's definitely a core issue but so is the need for making concessions in a globalization economy vs independence.
__________________
Target April 2022
"Life moves pretty fast. If you don't stop and look around for a while, you could miss it."
YVRRocketSurgery is offline  
Old 06-25-2016, 01:05 PM   #19
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 11,016
Quote:
Originally Posted by DrRoy View Post
I've always enjoyed that. The Megacorp motto. I think it would be reasonable to negotiate the Brexit terms and then hold a final vote when they really know what they are voting on.
That does sound reasonable, but there is no provision for a revote in Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty.

Article 50
__________________
Meadbh is offline  
Old 06-25-2016, 01:11 PM   #20
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
HFWR's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Lawn chair in Texas
Posts: 12,964
Quote:
Originally Posted by target2019 View Post
What? Texas is leaving?

That would be "Texit"...
__________________

__________________
Have Funds, Will Retire

...not doing anything of true substance...
HFWR is offline  
Closed Thread


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Brexit! Taxman59 FIRE Related Public Policy 142 11-07-2016 02:00 PM
Schwab's Brexit thoughts dixonge Stock Picking and Market Strategy 28 07-30-2016 09:59 AM
Brexit Paper Loss retire2020 FIRE and Money 98 06-28-2016 10:05 AM
Brexit Ed_The_Gypsy Stock Picking and Market Strategy 0 06-25-2016 12:50 AM

 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 04:35 PM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.