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Old 06-23-2016, 07:46 PM   #41
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Early returns have the British Markets in a total turmoil... First two districts upside down from the expectations.
Looks to be a long night. Final reslts expected around breakfast time in the US on Friday.
First charts after the districts (Sunderland and New Castle) have the pound down 40%.
CSpan is showing the results live.
Current concensus is that if there is a Brexit, the inflation will go up 3 to 4%.

More exciting than US elections.
This is not even a binding election. It doesn't matter the outcome. Even if Brexit passes, with 100% of the vote, Parliament can vote to stay in.

Count on a market rally when it passes one or both votes.
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Old 06-23-2016, 08:08 PM   #42
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This is not even a binding election. It doesn't matter the outcome. Even if Brexit passes, with 100% of the vote, Parliament can vote to stay in.

Count on a market rally when it passes one or both votes.
It'd be political suicide for politicians not to follow through with the referendum results. Parliament would be a gong show too considering how split even the the ruling Conservative and opposition Labour party are within their own caucuses.
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Old 06-23-2016, 09:01 PM   #43
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Not to mention that a Brexit may precipitate the breakup of the U.K. Early results suggest that most of the Leave votes are coming from England, while Scotland is leaning to Remain.
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Old 06-23-2016, 09:04 PM   #44
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They have whiskey to sell?
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Old 06-23-2016, 09:05 PM   #45
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Dow Jones futures briefly saw an implied open down more than 400 points, before then recovering much of those losses. Those moves, however, occurred on extremely light volume.
US futures take a dive as Brexit vote results roll in
Get ready to buy. The dip will be short lived, if at all.
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Old 06-23-2016, 09:19 PM   #46
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Originally Posted by Sunset View Post
Looks like I need to plan our trip to London, going to be able to travel posh style with a 40% decline of the pound.


Imolder, had a sticky finger on the keyboard...It never was down 40%.... It is down between 4-5% ....Sorry, Sunset...Just a minor savings it you book now.


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Old 06-23-2016, 09:36 PM   #47
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Not to mention that a Brexit may precipitate the breakup of the U.K. Early results suggest that most of the Leave votes are coming from England, while Scotland is leaning to Remain.
I'm following the results on The Guardian's EU referendum results website, and as of about 10:30 PM Eastern, it does not appear that any of Scotland's local authorities have voted to leave. Of course, the City of Edinburgh with the most concentrated Scottish population that has yet to report (Glasgow with more population reported already).

A couple of other interesting points (to me, anyway):
  • Nearly 71% of eligible voters cast votes in the local authorities that have reported so far (over 9.5 million votes in).
  • Glad to see Boston (District) was allowed to vote - over 75% voted to leave
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Old 06-23-2016, 09:44 PM   #48
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Imolder, had a sticky finger on the keyboard...It never was down 40%.... It is down between 4-5% ....Sorry, Sunset...Just a minor savings it you book now.


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Stay patient Sunset and dont book..Its down 7% now...Maybe you will get that 40% after all!


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Old 06-23-2016, 10:16 PM   #49
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Edited to avoid politics...

I'll just say, I'm happy to take a hit monetarily if that actually happens.
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Old 06-23-2016, 10:25 PM   #50
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Here is a quote from the Community Rules (see link at the bottom of the page):

Partisan political commentary is not allowed in any section of the forum. Discussions about current or pending legislation or regulations that directly pertain to Early Retirement are acceptable but may be closed or removed if they wander off topic or become disruptive.

Limit discussion of politics to the “FIRE Related Political Topics” forum unless the issue is specifically pertinent to the topic at hand.
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Old 06-23-2016, 10:26 PM   #51
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It is very interesting to listen to CNBC and their continued call that this election is close. [MOD EDIT] Some day BTFD as a means of the amount of thought one needs for how to become rich may not work and the central banks will be discredited, but I am sure there will be plenty early on with this strategy. The biggest purchaser of Japanese stocks in the last 6 months has been the Japan Central bank, now with Japan futures down 7 percent after a 3 percent drop today, that position will be in a losing way. The Japan Central Bank also holds 40% of all government debt in Japan, interesting times to be sure.
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Old 06-23-2016, 11:01 PM   #52
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Old 06-23-2016, 11:07 PM   #53
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USD is up 8% against the British Pound and 3% against the Euro.

This could be a good summer for US tourists visiting Europe.

The downside is the portfolio will take a bigger hit...
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Old 06-23-2016, 11:17 PM   #54
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S&P futures down 92...
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Old 06-23-2016, 11:31 PM   #55
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S&P futures down 92...

Get ready to buy the gap.
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Futures imply Dow open down 650 points as Brexit result frightens investors
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Old 06-23-2016, 11:35 PM   #56
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Welp, the big Asian markets are all in red. Nikkei is down near 7%.
Can't wait to wake up and see everything in red and what the portfolio ends up at by end of day tomorrow.
We'll see if the missus wants to throw some cash at it.
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Old 06-23-2016, 11:36 PM   #57
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Oooooooh - might be one of those mini crash mornings where ETFs can't open properly and people can't get online with their brokerage. Hope no one has stop losses set up!
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Old 06-24-2016, 06:28 AM   #58
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Every time I buy or sell based on Market sentiment, I lose. I rather do nothing and watch. Hopefully the US$ will remain the prime world reserve currency for at least near future and US economy continue to stay #1 in the world.
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Old 06-24-2016, 06:49 AM   #59
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I have had decent results with the inverse, on an individual stock level.

With each implosion, sift through to find the unfairly punished company that is just being dragged down because it is in a rotten basket.

It has to be a solid company though because there is no telling when sentiment reverses, and you don't want to get stuck with a company having poor future prospects.

Did it in 2012 with BNP Paribas (EU banking meltdown), more recently with MHPC in the Ukraine (Krim wars).
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Old 06-24-2016, 06:59 AM   #60
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I put things into a long term perspective. Lets say the market ends up down 5%. Since I'm not about 45% in stocks, my portfolio will take a little less than a 2.5% hit. That equates to about a year of retirement withdrawals for me. But I don't have to touch the stock (or bond) portion of my investments for at least 7 years. In the long run, this short term panic has good odds of recovering. Perhaps I'll put a little more cash into my ETFs as early in the day as possible, it might be a buying opportunity for me.
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