Britain vote could crush 401k balances?

[mathjak107]

My first thought on hearing the news of market drops: "Good. If the dip lasts more than 10 days, then my upcoming dividend reinvestments will buy more shares"

it is a wash . you will have the same account value pretty much before and after the reinvested money .

all compounding is on dollars at the ring of the opening bell over the next quarter , not number of shares . the auto adjustment in share price downward by the amount of the pay out pretty much is a wash when you reinvest .

if you don't reinvest then at the opening bell you have less dollars compounding .

you only benefit when buying more shares with new money since that increases the dollars compounding .

 

[mathjak107]

The dividend reinvestment price is the price of the stock on the dividend ex-date, not the date the dividend is distributed.

Likely that ex-date has already passed, and they will be bought for a price a few percent above the market.

this is another reason .

all in all , much ado about nothing . you pretty much end up with the same dollars you had pre dividend .

all that counts is total return . you started the quarter with x-amount and it compounded up or down and you ended with y-amount . number of shares play no part .

the same total return will give you the same results whether you reinvested the dividend or had a stock that paid no dividend

 

[mathjak107]

Down just under 2% today with a 52/48 stock/bond portfolio.

down 1.37% total yesterday with a 33/59/8 portfolio . but about 40% of the bond budget is in high yield as a proxy for some of the stock allocation .

i found the high yield market performing better then stocks with almost 1/2 the volatility so it was a no brainer to make the swap .

 

[Travelwanted]

Latest polls show it is very close. Odds makers still have it more likely Brexit will NOT occur.

Personally I think the market sells off more up to the vote. I bought a small short that I am betting...yes this is gambling...not investing....will go up the next few days. I will likely sell before the actual vote and take advantage of the uncertainty for some extra pocket change...hopefully. Remember, the market does not like uncertainty.

Exact opposite of what I thought...run up to the vote then plummet.

Closed out my short position and went long the pound. Added to total stock market, international and banking.

 

[Pilot2013]

Not really sure what the 1 day impact was. I'm still up 7.45% for the last 3 months in my 401K, and of course, my cash i still the same (about .02% lol)

 

[RobbieB]

Today I am up 64 grand from last month.

Up, down, sideways...who cares?

Much ado about nothing.

And that's my way of dealing with market fluctuations, do nothing -

 

[audreyh1]

It's already recovered most of the downdraft.

 

[EastWest Gal]

Today I am up 64 grand from last month.

Up, down, sideways...who cares?

Much ado about nothing.

And that's my way of dealing with market fluctuations, do nothing -

+1


Sent from my iPhone using Early Retirement Forum

 

[Big_Hitter]

I think I'm down about .4% in the k plan since the vote - must be the vfwsx exposure


that was as of 6/28; should go back up after today though

 

[YVRRocketSurgery]

Can't say I'm fully recovered yet but it's within spitting distance.

Just wanted to quote an economist I like to follow, Benjamin Tal: “Markets tend to overestimate developments in the short run and underestimate them in the long run.”

 

[VFK57]

Today I am up 64 grand from last month.

Up, down, sideways...who cares?

Much ado about nothing.

And that's my way of dealing with market fluctuations, do nothing -

+1. It is not the first or last time the Market goes up and down on bad / good news. Over the years economy improvement and inflation always drive the Market back and higher.

 

[FIREd]

I am pretty much back to where I was last week, just a few hundred dollars below my all time high. Whether it will last...

 

[marko]

I am pretty much back to where I was last week, just a few hundred dollars below my all time high. Whether it will last...

Wait! What? You mean I can come out of my bunker?

All the experts said this was close to the end of the world as we know it.

Last week, the headline was "Greenspan: This is the worst!", now it's "Just Kidding"?

 

[Major Tom]

As of close yesterday, I was ~0.2% below the recent high. With today's market action, it looks like I'll be above that mark.

However, it's very early days for this Brexit tomfoolery. Anything could happen in the weeks, months and (more importantly) years ahead.

 

[Taxman59]

Last night I looked at the ytd, and noticed that my balance is higher an the start of the year even after I have withdrawn 1/2 of my 2016 spend! If I can get another 18 months of this, we can get 1st class tickets for a trip to Europe (at least I will get 1st class, DW may be in coach!)


Have the day you deserve, and let Karma sort it out.

Sent from my iPad using Early Retirement Forum

 

[eta2020]

High quality, wide moat ETFs VIG and SCHD are at all time highs (If you add in dividend payed few days ago)

 

[Senator]

Based on my portfolio results, I am ready for another Brexit. Who, or what country, is next to vote?

If they do it often enough, my retirement will be more excellent that it already should be.

 

[VFK57]

Wait! What? You mean I can come out of my bunker?

All the experts said this was close to the end of the world as we know it.

Last week, the headline was "Greenspan: This is the worst!", now it's "Just Kidding"?

There are rumors of another round of stimulus from Central Banks.

 

[Bestwifeever]

Up $3k over the high on Brexit Eve.

The overall reaction of the EU to the vote seems to be "don't let the door hit you on the way out." Perhaps that (vs begging the UK to reconsider and appearing as if chaos would ensue otherwise) helped temper the initial sell-off last Friday.

 

[Markola]

On Monday, the Learned Experts said we must expect tremendous volatility in the markets, and quite possibly a recession. By Thursday, the Other Learned Experts are saying, "The effects of Brexit will not likely be very bad for US stocks." As usual, it's "Pick Your Expert" based on what is in the rear view mirror, because that's the best anyone can do. No one can guess the future, so set your AA, keep your ERs low on your index fund and then ignore the "experts", starting with the OP's advisor and all the rest. Happy 4th!

 

[FIREd]

However, it's very early days for this Brexit tomfoolery.

+1

Up $10K from pre-Brexit but feeling like I am whistling past the graveyard.