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Britain vote could crush 401k balances?
Old 06-17-2016, 11:26 PM   #1
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Britain vote could crush 401k balances?

Just heard the tail end of this advisor. Mentioned converting to cash in your 401k until the vote, then going back in.

Hum.......what do you think. They vote Thursday.
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Old 06-17-2016, 11:36 PM   #2
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Probably the same guy who got himself on television urging everyone to go all cash when Greece was on the edge of exiting the EU, Spain, Portugal and Italy would be next, Scotland was about to secede, Puerto Rico was going to take us all down, Iceland was imploding, Ireland was drowning in housing debt, China's market crash would..., eh, you get the point.
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Old 06-17-2016, 11:38 PM   #3
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I think that the gloom and doom that is being peddled is wrong...


What reason is there for all of British stocks to take a tumble It is not like they will be excluded from selling stuff in the rest of Europe...


I do think there will be a drop, but I think it will recover fast... we will see...
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Old 06-17-2016, 11:43 PM   #4
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Not sure why one would do this unless one was regularly playing the market timing role. Curios if he also recommend selling before presidential primaries got far enough to see who would be nominated? Or selling just before the general election? Or selling just before fed meetings? Seems like there are other things like those that are more clearly going to have a strong impact in the US.

I'm not much of a market timer myself and the Brexit vote is not one I'd place bets on. I don't have the foggiest how it will impact us though I've listened to some others say what they thought.


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Old 06-18-2016, 02:38 AM   #5
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Britain vote could crush 401k balances?
Wow, I didn't realize that my vote had such power.

Wa Ha Ha Ha!!
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Old 06-18-2016, 03:26 AM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Floridatennisplayer View Post
Just heard the tail end of this advisor. Mentioned converting to cash in your 401k until the vote, then going back in.

Hum.......what do you think. They vote Thursday.
Lets see...
  • He encourages you to engage in market timing under duress
  • You fail miserably
  • You then are susceptible to offers from professional advisors now that you are questioning your own ability.
Actually sounds similar to the setup for most email phish/phone/frauds etc.
(ie. "Grandma - please send money right now -- I am in a jail far away...")


I feel much more at ease now that I recognize the pattern for what it is and can ignore it.

10 years ago, I was much more likely to engage in the bullet items above with predictable results.

-gauss
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Old 06-18-2016, 07:12 AM   #7
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Big things do sometimes spook the herd. It might stampede around for a while. It will then return to grazing.

401k balances may get "crushed" but then they will come back. The best solutions are either to just not open your statement for six months so you don't see the dip on the middle (tada! You never got crushed!) or just put cash in while its down.
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Old 06-18-2016, 07:51 AM   #8
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It usually isn't the "known unknowns" that cause a market to be "crushed," but the "unknown knowns". My uneducated guess is the worlds 5th biggest economy can somehow stand largely on their own in a successful manner.


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Old 06-18-2016, 07:54 AM   #9
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Yep, all doom and gloom. The Brits may go back to the way they were.

Ask your adviser how well international stock have done since before the EU and after the EU. Compare and decide.
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Old 06-18-2016, 08:30 AM   #10
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Reading about this looming disaster makes me really happy I rolled over my 401k and don't have to worry!
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Old 06-18-2016, 09:40 AM   #11
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Like any other market timing attempt, I assume there are professionals in the market every day who have looked at Brexit from every possible perspective. Current market prices reflect the average of those views.

Unless I have reason to believe I know a lot more about Brexit than those professionals, I figure I can't make money by market timing.
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Old 06-18-2016, 09:46 AM   #12
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Like any other market timing attempt, I assume there are professionals in the market every day who have looked at Brexit from every possible perspective. Current market prices reflect the average of those views.

Unless I have reason to believe I know a lot more about Brexit than those professionals, I figure I can't make money by market timing.


Dont give up, Independent. Actually its quite easy to make money on it. All you have to do is find out what the professionals are currently thinking, and anticipate what they will then think next, then trade based on that thought.


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Old 06-18-2016, 09:46 AM   #13
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Any effect will be temporary. These doom and gloomers always talk like sell-offs are permanent/forever. Well they can be if you get spooked out at the bottom.

A bunch of folks probably won't even notice the dips unless they check their accounts often.

Just let it ride.
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Old 06-18-2016, 09:47 AM   #14
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Current market prices reflect the average of those views.

Unless I have reason to believe I know a lot more about Brexit than those professionals, I figure I can't make money by market timing.
The exchange rate has been extremely good (falling £) so I've been transferring lots of $'s this past few months. (the £ was trading at $1.38 in March and has been back down at those levels again this past week).

If the £ falls again after the vote I'll transfer some more money over.
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Old 06-18-2016, 09:50 AM   #15
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Originally Posted by Independent View Post
Like any other market timing attempt, I assume there are professionals in the market every day who have looked at Brexit from every possible perspective. Current market prices reflect the average of those views.

Unless I have reason to believe I know a lot more about Brexit than those professionals, I figure I can't make money by market timing.
Well, it was a nonevent according to the professionals until suddenly the polls changed in favor of Brexit. This week in the markets has been the professionals scrambling to figure out what it means to their investments and trying to reposition.

So, I don't think they were looking at every angle the prior week.
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Old 06-18-2016, 09:50 AM   #16
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Exactly. Make some money off the current uncertainty but don't bet hard earned dollars on "prognosticators".

For instance, this week uncertainty drove VXUS down to the point where I bought some more.
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Old 06-18-2016, 10:09 AM   #17
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So does this mean the market will go up if no Brexit?
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Old 06-18-2016, 12:04 PM   #18
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I'm not returning to the market until the Y2K issue blows over.
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Old 06-18-2016, 12:11 PM   #19
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Big things do sometimes spook the herd. It might stampede around for a while. It will then return to grazing. .
Ha! That metaphor is a keeper. That's why we don't try to buy bulls (stocks) but instead buy the whole ranch (index funds).
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Old 06-18-2016, 12:32 PM   #20
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I'm not returning to the market until the Y2K issue blows over.

Is the Gold and Ammo holding up?
Don't forget to check the dates on those MREs.
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