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Old 03-03-2013, 09:01 PM   #21
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I think the market is highly susceptible to political action. Based only on economic factors I think companies are doing well and the somewhat slow recovery will continue, setting up a classic wall of worry bull market. But all it takes is a little political theater to throw this all away. Too much austerity, some grandstanding intransigence by either (or both) party, and we could see a nice crash.

Since it's uncontrollable and unknowable, I plan to just stay invested at my boring index funds, and rebalance as needed however things work out.

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Old 03-03-2013, 09:24 PM   #22
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Originally Posted by Hnicols View Post
Same as it was in 2000? Funny how so much turns on where you start and end your looking. I retired 12-31-11. Someone recently suggested that I got where I got (retired early and happy) because of good market conditions in 80s and 90s. I had to admit it did seem like an extraordinary period, with incredible run-ups followed by crashes, followed by nearly a decade of stagnation. But because it is the only period I have known (and because I suspect we all think "our periods" are extraordinary), I ran an analysis looking at the compound rate of growth in S&P from late 85 when I started investing through the close of 2011 when I hung up my spurs. Turns out I experienced almost precisely the ordinary return as compared with the period from the great depression through now ( to the second decimal place). So who knows what the future holds, but my past produced exactly what I would have predicted from the past before my past. So maybe we are in a bubble, maybe we are on the early legs of a great bull market, and maybe the past won't predict the future. But I plan to keep plugging away, investing balanced and diversified, until I figure out something better.
Very well said. The solution is always the same - always invest constantly. Don't worry too much about new highs or lows and stick to whatever plan you have. Timing is very important but you can't ever say of the next calamity will happen at the same tome as when you retire. So also ensue you have a way to retire anyway. Or have a backup plan of your investments tank. Or even plan for less than you actually need so you don't set expectations too high. The new Economy is not going back to the god old 90s. Period. Expect lax but slow growth over this decade and most of all understand that markets atone the world are now mostly being dictated by central bank monetary policies not supply and demand. That is not likely to change for awhile

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Old 03-04-2013, 01:06 AM   #23
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Well time travel isn't invented yet. Until then I believe/hope there will be another large correction this year at the end. So I keep money in three piles. Normal investment allocation, another in ultra shorting bonds, and the last a big pile of cash for any fire sales if there is a correction.

Staying the course is probably best, but I'll admit I like to time a little with some excess cash. Call it working to fund my market habit.
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Old 03-04-2013, 02:02 AM   #24
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Originally Posted by Hnicols View Post
Same as it was in 2000? Funny how so much turns on where you start and end your looking. I retired 12-31-11. Someone recently suggested that I got where I got (retired early and happy) because of good market conditions in 80s and 90s.
I agree with your entire statement and wanted to highlight the comment above. Folks have said similar to me (though not yet retired early it is soon to be in my future), and one thing I point out is that, if that were the case, you would be reading many more stories of folks in the 50-60 year old range FIRE-ing instead of all the press about how so many have nothing to retire on. Those who did well over those years were much more likely to have done so by consistently staying in the market instead of trying to time "bubbles". There were significant "bubbles" during that time that looked significant at the time but are "smoothed out" when you look at then in the rearview mirror (the single day crash of 1987 being exhibit A).
Current target FIRE date: June 2017 or +50K to the portfolio, whichever comes first
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Old 03-04-2013, 11:59 AM   #25
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Originally Posted by dtbach View Post
Well this isn't going to be fun if the standard reply is "the market will fluctuate"

I'm just curious if you think the market will end higher or lower by the end of 2013. Is it on a bubble or will it climb the wall of worry?
Absolutely the market will fluctuate, but will most likely be a littler higher by year end.
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Old 03-05-2013, 06:03 PM   #26
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Some comparisons:

The Last Time The Dow Was Here... | Zero Hedge
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Old 03-05-2013, 08:49 PM   #27
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I'm thinking it will go higher now that everyone who has missed the bull from the 2009 bottom starts throwing money into the market. These things always go on longer than you think. 15,000 is right around the corner.
Wild Bill shoulda taken more out of his IRA when he could have. . . .
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Making My Way, Step by Step
Old 03-05-2013, 09:37 PM   #28
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Making My Way, Step by Step

Have been using some new "retiree" time to learn more about investing. Dan Wiener's "Investment Adviser" newletters have been most helpful.

So, the answer to the OP is that the market will fluctuate. But I have also been trying to improve AA with the rising market. Last Sept. sold my 2010 and 2015 target date funds and replaced them with Wellington and Wellesley Income (each taking up about 15% of my rolled-over 401K). Then, in recent weeks, have been selling off Star Conservative and Moderate Growth, locking in earnings from the past 10-12 years I've held them. Am hoping to buy more Wellington and Wellesley if/when the market drops, maybe using some dollar-cost-averaging to buy them at lower prices.

Would also like to put about 50% of this rollover IRA into Wiener's Income Portfolio (comprised entirely of Vanguard funds). In his newletter, he lists the earnings of each of his portfolios, going back about 20 years.

With today's market high, I sold off the rest of Star Conservative (finished off Moderate Growth last week). Hopefully, with cash "ready to go", I'll be able to shop for some bargains in the year ahead (if the the economy suffers due to the federal sequester).

We'll see how I do with this learning curve.

(These have been my "baby steps" beyond CD's, old 403B variable annuities, and mindlessly pouring contributions into the 401K money mkt. and target date funds with my last employer.)

(It helps that DH and I both have pensions, retiree HI, and he has SS. Plus, LBYM has been our MO forever.)
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Old 03-05-2013, 10:01 PM   #29
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I'm glad I took some off the table and re-balanced at the start of the year.

That said, I did enjoying taking a peek at my portfolio tonight after the record setting news.

Have you ever seen a headstone with these words
"If only I had spent more time at work" ... from "Busy Man" sung by Billy Ray Cyrus
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