Bubblicious? (redux)

[audreyh1]

This new cheeky ETrade "one finger" ad is so reminiscent of the old "He's got money coming out the wazoo!" ads, it's making me just a teeny weeny bit nervous.

And this on top of the S&P 500 less that 10 points from it's all time high back in 2000.

Of course, it seemed like those ads (and a whole lot more like them) ran almost continuously for a year before everything seriously hit the fan.

Anyone remember that crazy Ameritrade kid? Forgot his name already, but even Clinton featured him in a white house video farce.

Audrey

[GMueller]

I believe everyone remembers the popping of the last bubble, but they also figure they are smarter than the rest of the pack and will be able to pull their chips off the table before the "ca-ca hits the fan." Because so many do remember the last time, I believe when it does start to unravel, it will unravel much faster than before, and a lot of "smart" people are going to be left holding the bag.

[Nords]

Quote:

Originally Posted by audreyh1 This new cheeky ETrade "one finger" ad is so reminiscent of the old "He's got money coming out the wazoo!" ads, it's making me just a teeny weeny bit nervous.

Audrey, I've been re-reading Maggie Mahar's "Bull!". It's a refreshing walk down memory lane-- and I wonder if anyone still wants to know what Mary Meeker thinks?

Ya got nothin' to worry about.

Unless it's really really different this time...

[unclemick]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nords Unless it's really really different this time...

Of course it is - this time around we got Brew and Nords and and

BTW should I keep/add to my Aetna and Union Pacific which I forgot to dump when they cut their dividends way back when

We even got a thread for this - right. Still have my EGLE and STON.

heh heh heh gotta love those hormones :

[megacorp-firee]

Not to hijack this thread, but I have come to the conclusion that many of you buy and hold, index mutual funds advocates don't 'eat the dog food'. :

Lottsa DMTing going on with a lot of individual stock picks going on here. tsk tsk

Not trying to start a food fight (sorry), just an observation

[brewer12345]

Quote:

Originally Posted by megacorp-firee Not to hijack this thread, but I have come to the conclusion that many of you buy and hold, index mutual funds advocates don't 'eat the dog food'. : Lottsa DMTing going on with a lot of individual stock picks going on here. tsk tsk Not trying to start a food fight (sorry), just an observation

"Do as I say, not as I do."

[Nords]

Quote:

Originally Posted by megacorp-firee Not to hijack this thread, but I have come to the conclusion that many of you buy and hold, index mutual funds advocates don't 'eat the dog food'. :

Well, they're not reading your post!

It wouldn't even occur to the true B&H index-fund advocates that this thread is about the equity markets.

[unclemick]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nords Well, they're not reading your post! It wouldn't even occur to the true B&H index-fund advocates that this thread is about the equity markets.

It's about hormones, the Norwegian widow and what the heck are are Brew and Nord's up to now.

heh heh heh - 85% Target Retirement and and 15% soon to be ex Norwegian(maybe) - sin?, hobby?, putz?, mad money waiting for the right kayak to buy.

I repeat - theoretical purity is not my strongpoint! : : 8)

[unclemick]

BTW - Hopefully any bubblelitis is cured via those wonderful Vanguard computers rebalancing their little Target Retirement hearts out - as we speak/post/don't post/watch/don't watch/etc/etc.

heh heh heh - now I can knip over to the Forum picks thread. 8)

[audreyh1]

Quote:

Originally Posted by GMueller I believe everyone remembers the popping of the last bubble, but they also figure they are smarter than the rest of the pack and will be able to pull their chips off the table before the "ca-ca hits the fan." Because so many do remember the last time, I believe when it does start to unravel, it will unravel much faster than before, and a lot of "smart" people are going to be left holding the bag.

People (analysts, talking heads) have been angst ridden over the "ca-ca hitting the fan" since last October when the markets started their rapid rise. They've been holding back, waiting for dips that never come, etc. I have a feeling it'll be a much wilder ride than a rapid unraveling.

Audrey

[Hamlet]

I don't think you can compare what is going on now with the Tech Bubble. Valuations are not crazy high right now, IMO. What was the S&P PE at the peak of the bubble-- 35, 40?

The S&P PE is currently under 20. While a downturn is not unlikely, I just don't see a massive meltdown unless the economy goes completely to heck.

There are reasons to be worried about a downturn, but there always are. This just doesn't have the same scale that the tech boom did.

[. . . Yrs to Go]

Quote:

Originally Posted by audreyh1 And this on top of the S&P 500 less that 10 points from it's all time high back in 2000.

Well, Audrey, if we're really going to get anything more than 2% equity returns over the foreseeable future, you're just going to have to get used to new record highs on the indexes. Keep in mind that earnings are growing. Record prices on absolute terms really tell you nothing of value.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nords Unless it's really really different this time...

You mean different from all the other years where the S&P closed at record highs: 1952, 1954, 1955, 1956, 1958, 1959, 1961, 1963, 1965, 1967, 1968, 1972, 1980, 1982, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1986, 1987, 1988, 1989, 1991, 1992, 1993, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2007(?), . . .

I'd sure hate to be the guy who bailed out of the market in 1952 because it hit an all time high of 26.57 and is still waiting for "reasonable" prices to get back in.

[. . . Yrs to Go]

Seriously, where's the bubble?

[dmpi]

From reading these post I can see we are climbing that "wall of worry"!

[Nords]

Quote:

Originally Posted by 3 Yrs to Go I'd sure hate to be the guy who bailed out of the market in 1952 because it hit an all time high of 26.57 and is still waiting for "reasonable" prices to get back in.

H0cus isn't allowed to post here anymore...

[2B]

We won't have to worry about a bubble until no one thinks it's possible for the market to go down. Right now we have good earnings and low interest rates. Inflation is well under control despite runaway commodities. I expect a tsunami of S&P records over the next 2 years. After that.....

It's not really different this time but it sorta is. The new bubble hasn't really got going yet. Too many people remember 2000-2002 so everyone is being cautious. The real bust was in the tech area where all anyone needed to have an IPO was a web site and "dot com" in the name. The real beneficiaries of the tech revolution didn't go up all that much or down for that matter. This time the companies that benefited from all that tech stuff will see the payout.

[audreyh1]

OK - so most of you did get that my initial post was tongue in cheek, right?

It just brought back memories of the incessant frenzy of those over-the-top electronic trading ads of 1999-2000. That was a wild time.......

Audrey