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Old 05-26-2008, 12:07 PM   #21
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Don't we actually have to go into a recession first for it to be long and deep

And as one said.. what is 'deep'? What is 'long'?

I think that people are in a funk... and this might push us into a recession... but the unemployment rate in either my city or state (I did not hear which one) was 3.9%.... does not sound much like a recession to me...

Call me when unemployment reaches 7... no 8% and then I will agree it is 'deep'... and if it goes 2 or 3 years... then I will agree it is long...

I am not making any prediction..... but there has been so much crap over the airwaves with no support behind it... it makes me not want to listen to any of them.... including Warren...

Just a question.... did we get to the correction in the market? (is this the 10% or 20%... I was thinking 20%.... but that sounds wrong)...

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Old 05-26-2008, 12:18 PM   #22
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Originally Posted by Disappointed View Post
Barron's this week has an interesting article about P/E titled "What's the real P/E Ratio" written by Chairman and President of Comstock. According to them, the current P/E is not what it appears to be.
...Makes me want to go to all cash.
I recall reading many, many years ago about someone from Comstock being very bearish. The article then was in Forbes and had a nice darkish, sombre picture of the guy in a very thoughtful, intelligent looking pose. They were very wrong then.

Regarding Barron's, every time I pick it up in the library I'm glad I cancelled my subscription years ago. That guy Abelson write's nicely but he's forever a bear. Seems to me he's been bearish since at least 1987.

At least once a week I contemplate changing my AA and then drop the idea after going through the usual rational. My AA is set for the worst a bear market has thrown at us since 1925. Of course, if the market repeats a 1929 or 1973-74 scenario I'm sure I'll be worried. Nice to know I can always whine here .

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Old 05-26-2008, 03:32 PM   #23
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Originally Posted by Hamlet View Post
Remember, cash is losing you money right now. Money markets are earning about 3%, and you pay taxes on that, so it is more like 2%.

Inflation is running at at least 4% (you can decide for yourself if the government has a secret plot to understate it ).

Treasury bonds don't pay enough to get a real return.

Commodity prices are through the roof and feel like they are in a bubble. I may be wrong about this, but I'm not going to get caught chasing prices up.

That pretty much leaves stocks, real estate, and junk bonds as investment options.

Stocks and real estate have the advantage of being able to increase prices and rents to cope with inflation. They seem like the only safe choices in today's environment.
Don't forget that rental housing is a market too. In a really bad recession/depression most investment assets depreciate. And your market for rental income comes from people who have jobs. But if incomes go down (deflation) and fewer people have jobs, your rental market goes down too. You want to rent that house/apartment? Lower the monthly rent. Oh, you still are paying the mortgage on that property? Gee, that's too bad. If things start looking really bad going forward, I'll be paying off some mortgages just for the flexibility.

I'll manage the depth of a market fall with AA and just hope the fall for me won't be as deep as the overall market. Cash is a poor mistress right now, but I still take a little comfort there too. I just consider it opportunity funds that pays me not to play even as it loses a little value. But it does give me some options.
Can't you see yourself in the nursing home saying, " Darn! Wish I'd spent more time at the office instead of wasting time with family and friends."
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Old 05-26-2008, 04:07 PM   #24
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My Muni Mutual funds are paying 4.3-4.53% tax free. Plus I have Pssst! Wellesley at 4.47% Dodge Cox Income - 5.14% Harbor Bond - 5.05%
Have Permanent Portfolio (PRPFX) & Dodge & Cox Stock(DODGX)
Forum clued me in on VPDFX (7% right?) so I'm looking at that. Will also do DD on FAIRX & SEQUX (to get a little Buffet & Berkshire).

Not great but I'm not thinking about the market as much now. Able to concentrate on my golf obsession. Did you know that Hogans secret may have been the cupping of the left wrist and running his right knee at the ball?
I didn't know either until I had the time and focus to find out once I started letting mutual fund managers try to find the right place (I hope) for my money. I think my stock picking days maybe over - it's what got me early retired (well with the 90s bull it wasn't that hard - getting out in time in 2000-1 was harder though), but I'm in a different phase of life now.
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Old 05-26-2008, 05:02 PM   #25
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Originally Posted by Danny View Post
What's an MER...
Management Expense Ratio:

How much of your money the MF company takes each year, whether makes or looses money.
There are two kinds of people in the world: those who can extrapolate conclusions from insufficient data and ..
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Old 05-26-2008, 05:23 PM   #26
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Originally Posted by kumquat View Post
Management Expense Ratio:

How much of your money the MF company takes each year, whether makes or looses money.
I'm trying to have MFs that have lower management expenses. l will cut down considerably my stock trade expenses and also not sweating the market so much .

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