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Old 03-07-2008, 03:57 AM   #81
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Now if equities are expected to be 7%, where would this put a real retirement asset allocation like 60/40 or 50/50? Do any of the past FIRECalc data series even have an example of 20 years of low/low returns? What would be the withdrawal rate for such a long term sluggish economy in returns from equities, bonds and cash?

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Old 03-07-2008, 06:39 AM   #82
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Originally Posted by clifp View Post
The next best thing to a transporter room..
Oh hey, dont even get me started on THAT one...

Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Just another form of "buy low, sell high" for those who have trouble with things. This rule is not universal. Do not buy a 1973 Pinto because everyone else is afraid of it.
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Old 03-07-2008, 10:09 AM   #83
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Originally Posted by Patrick View Post
Given enough time, doesn't it always have to "revert to the mean," by definition? If not, there would be no mean. And I don't mean to sound mean by saying that.
What's interesting about the historical results is that they always seem to revert to the same mean.
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Old 03-07-2008, 11:23 AM   #84
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Originally Posted by FIREdreamer View Post
I was originaly planning on 8% yearly returns, but Morningstar expects a return of only 7.5% for my portfolio going forward. So I now use 7% expected returns for my FIRE calculations. If everyone predicting 7% returns on stocks in the future happened to be on the low side, then I guess I'll FIRE sooner then expected!

Morningstar's expected future annual returns are:
4% on cash
5.5% on bonds
7,6% on US large caps
8.4% on US small caps
8.3% on foreign stocks
I assume these are nominal returns rather than real. Do you know what inflation rate they use for this projection?
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Old 03-07-2008, 04:30 PM   #85
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Can we update the return predictions if the S&P drops to 700?

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