|
|
06-02-2007, 02:11 AM
|
#1
|
Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 118
|
Bull Market
How much longer can the market keep going? And how is it going to make its decent?
|
|
|
|
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!
Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!
You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!
|
06-02-2007, 03:54 AM
|
#2
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Mid Hudson Valley
Posts: 1,781
|
In the words of the famous mohel Rabbi Avraham Rappaport, "It won't be long now."
__________________
In a panamax down by the river.
|
|
|
06-02-2007, 04:56 AM
|
#3
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 1,428
|
I used the GSI index as a monitor. How many times in the last month has Greenspan split an infinitive?
|
|
|
06-02-2007, 05:05 AM
|
#4
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Kansas City
Posts: 7,968
|
I like the part where you get to smugly say: I don't know and don't care, because you have your defense in place and ready to go. Besides - in the long run the trend is up, you believe in RTM and you have read all the right books and studies - right?
Still the old saw is: The Market climbs a wall of worry. When your cab driver/barber/insert favorite person starts giving stock tips then it's time to sell.
Still have some memory of the good old days 1966-1982 AND a 10% interest in a non working gold mine in CO, some gold/silver/platinum coins - sold most of the real estate/Oregon timberland - ate the freeze dryed food.
In the words of J P Morgan when asked about the market - It will fluctuate.
heh heh heh Pssst - balanced index baby!
|
|
|
06-02-2007, 06:49 AM
|
#5
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 5,105
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by BUM
In the words of the famous mohel Rabbi Avraham Rappaport, "It won't be long now."
|
You're talking about the mohel?
MDmohel.com _____ Rabbi Avraham Rappaport, Certified Mohel _____ 877-MD-MOHEL__________
__________________
Sometimes death is not as tragic as not knowing how to live. This man knew how to live--and how to make others glad they were living. - Jack Benny at Nat King Cole's funeral
|
|
|
06-02-2007, 06:51 AM
|
#6
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 6,115
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by runnerr
How much longer can the market keep going? And how is it going to make its decent?
|
boy if anyone can answere this question they are probley richer than bill gates.
reminds me of an interview i heard with peter lynch
peter where do you see rates headed
answere: dont know dont really care
well peter your one of the greatest money manager of all time, where do you see stocks headed .
answere; dont know , dont really care
look if i could correctly predict the markets direction 3x in a row correctly id be a multi billionair instead of just rich!
|
|
|
06-02-2007, 07:48 AM
|
#7
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 18,085
|
I dunno. But a market problem will likely be triggered by problems in the junk market, since stupid LBOs are what is driving a lot of the market now.
__________________
"All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others."
- George Orwell
Ezekiel 23:20
|
|
|
06-02-2007, 08:15 AM
|
#8
|
Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 47,472
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by runnerr
How much longer can the market keep going? And how is it going to make its decent?
|
It sure has been fun, hasn't it!
My guess is that it will continue to keep going until sometime during the year after the next Presidential election, at which point it will fall back and regroup.
I try not to time the market. However, if it tanks and is still looking terrible in 2009-2010, then I might have to wait a while longer before retiring. I hope not.
__________________
Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harbourless immensities. - - H. Melville, 1851.
Happily retired since 2009, at age 61. Best years of my life by far!
|
|
|
06-02-2007, 08:19 AM
|
#9
|
Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: San Francisco
Posts: 8,827
|
__________________
Rich
San Francisco Area
ESR'd March 2010. FIRE'd January 2011.
As if you didn't know..If the above message contains medical content, it's NOT intended as advice, and may not be accurate, applicable or sufficient. Don't rely on it for any purpose. Consult your own doctor for all medical advice.
|
|
|
06-02-2007, 08:21 AM
|
#10
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 2,450
|
Quote:
I used the GSI index as a monitor
|
I use CSI as a monitor....if they create another tv series...it is bearish....Same could be said for Law and Order...
__________________
- Hurry! to the cliffs of insanity!
|
|
|
06-02-2007, 08:22 AM
|
#11
|
Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 944
|
This has been a nice ride. I did some re-allocating this week and am comfortable with a continuation or a drop. I've got cash on the side to buy bargains .. if we get some. But, P/Es are not unreasonable, we may get a rate cut later this year, presidential race is looming -- so this bull may have legs. In other words, I dunno -- but, I like to think I'm ready either way.
I know the market has been doing good because I have been checking my balences often -- when it drops I find something else to do
__________________
Freed at 49. You only live once - live it
|
|
|
06-02-2007, 08:36 AM
|
#12
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Losing my whump
Posts: 22,708
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by maddythebeagle
Same could be said for Law and Order...
|
Dear god...the law and order guy just quit to run for president. I think we've got crossover.
Sound the klaxon Nords!
__________________
Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Just another form of "buy low, sell high" for those who have trouble with things. This rule is not universal. Do not buy a 1973 Pinto because everyone else is afraid of it.
|
|
|
06-02-2007, 09:35 AM
|
#13
|
Confused about dryer sheets
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 5
|
Unless your about to retire, don't worry too much about the market dropping. If you are, I'd be locking that money in safer investments.
|
|
|
06-02-2007, 09:47 AM
|
#14
|
Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Florida
Posts: 249
|
Like more famous (and modest!) folk, I too bravely say "I don't know what the market's going to do!"
I would advocate:
Are you in your limits of your asset allocation? A market run-up can make your 60% stocks become 80%; you are asking for trouble perhaps.
Now might be an excellent time to take some money off the table.
-- Pedorrero, who is going to sell some of his stocks, but because he needs to pay an attorney*, not because he thinks a slump is coming.
* To sue a Trust, to distribute loot to him, including the opportunity to sell a lot more stocks! Details elsewhere in my recent past
__________________
I've got nothing against an honest day's work, provided that someone else does it.
|
|
|
06-02-2007, 09:59 AM
|
#15
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Portland, Oregon
Posts: 7,108
|
I was reading through the Dodge & Cox Balanced annual report. I like the allocation flexability.
__________________
Duck bjorn.
|
|
|
06-02-2007, 11:12 AM
|
#16
|
Confused about dryer sheets
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 5
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Donzo
This has been a nice ride. I did some re-allocating this week and am comfortable with a continuation or a drop. I've got cash on the side to buy bargains ..
|
I'm doing the same -- have been selling a bit into the market strength as a way to take some money off the table. Sold some emerging markets because the China run really has me worried. If/when we get a pull-back, I have my list of buys and cash waiting to be deployed. It doesn't hurt that I'm getting nearly 5% on that cash in my money market acct while I wait...
|
|
|
06-02-2007, 11:52 AM
|
#17
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Houston
Posts: 4,337
|
Wow! How things have changed.
All the way back in March people were crying over the market crash! Here it is in early June with the 2B portfolio up a little over 10% since then (at the bottom of the February "crash" I was just about even for the year).
This has been a good run but we've had some good, but not major, corrections. I've seen runs that have gone on for a couple of years. Since I've left the fraternity of market timers, I'll just have to rebalance in August. If things hold up I'll be real happy because I'll take my current nominal 20% cash and run it up to 40% in anticipation of FIRE-ing.
Hang in there. Everytime I have intentionally market-timed, I've gotten the "green weenie."
|
|
|
06-02-2007, 12:15 PM
|
#18
|
Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Oahu
Posts: 26,856
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by unclemick
I like the part where you get to smugly say: I don't know and don't care, because you have your defense in place and ready to go.
|
Surely we can all fit through the exit at the same sell stop price time, can't we?
The day I got back from Manhattan we received a bat mitzvah invitation in the mail.
I could've picked up a dozen appropriate cards at many shops within six blocks of our hotel. On Oahu, however, we just gave up and went with a local-style pidgin card...
__________________
*
Co-author (with my daughter) of “Raising Your Money-Savvy Family For Next Generation Financial Independence.”
Author of the book written on E-R.org: "The Military Guide to Financial Independence and Retirement."
I don't spend much time here— please send a PM.
|
|
|
06-02-2007, 12:30 PM
|
#19
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Nomadic in the Rockies
Posts: 2,720
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by maddythebeagle
I use CSI as a monitor....if they create another tv series...it is bearish....Same could be said for Law and Order...
|
I'm waiting for CSI: Oahu . Or maybe that'd be too close to Baywatch.
|
|
|
06-02-2007, 12:42 PM
|
#20
|
Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 10,125
|
CSI: Omaha. Then I know that they have really run out of ideas. Or Warren Buffett was sponsoring it.
|
|
|
|
|
Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
|
|
Thread Tools |
|
Display Modes |
Linear Mode
|
Posting Rules
|
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
HTML code is Off
|
|
|
|
» Recent Threads
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
» Quick Links
|
|
|