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dmpi · 07-29-2006, 03:00 PM

Let’s make a few bullish/bearish predictions about various asset classes.
I'll start. Here are my predictions.

Bullish:
Large Cap stocks – Low P/E & flush with cash
Oil – It’s tough love, but people can learn to like $3.00/gal gas.
Power – Soon every house in America will have AC, even in Alaska.

Neutral:
Foreign Stocks – Overpriced but look for a 2nd wind

Bearish:
Small Caps – A great run up, but now way overpriced
Hedge funds – The zero sum game has found its last few suckers.
Gold – After all the excitement, the yellow stuff got no real use.
Housing – Silly money chasing silly prices – time for a reality check

Mwsinron · 07-29-2006, 03:18 PM

I agree. However Ill remain spread out and well diversified. Im not going to go chase the golden goose

Except I would say I am a bit Bullish on the foreign game.

kcowan · 07-29-2006, 04:00 PM

I disagree with small caps. Shop carefully, There are always some home runs to be had and these will finance those wonderful luxury trips. Otherwise I think you are spot on. I would add primary metals as some continued growth potential once their correction is complete.

Watch out for the financial sector. Housing could drag it down. As well as the decline in lending generally.

dmpi · 07-29-2006, 07:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mwsinron

Except I would say I am a bit Bullish on the foreign game.

I'm about 10% in Foreign. But I bought in late at the start of this year, so I missed the big gains of the two years before. I hoping for a good run up later this year or the next year.

dmpi · 07-29-2006, 07:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kcowan

I disagree with small caps. Shop carefully, There are always some home runs to be had and these will finance those wonderful luxury trips. Otherwise I think you are spot on. I would add primary metals as some continued growth potential once their correction is complete.

Watch out for the financial sector. Housing could drag it down. As well as the decline in lending generally.

I really missed the boat with small caps, and now I afraid to buy in because of the prices.

I sure hope housing manages to have a "soft" landing. As you mentioned, people walking from their loans will just leave the banks holding lots of bad debt.

unclemick · 07-29-2006, 08:03 PM

Neither one - my fear is mucking along for a while sideways - with no clear trend. I did notice more foriegn creeping into my Target Retirement.

My mad money - large cap growth - er ah my version emphasizing div growth over current div and boring stuff like Budweiser, Walmart, Coke maybe a little Ford for excitement. With the dollar in the dumper we are getting value priced relative to stronger currencies.

Of course I'm usually wrong.

heh heh heh

Spanky · 07-29-2006, 08:45 PM

Bullish on technolgy and financial sectors?

Brat · 07-29-2006, 09:05 PM

Mucking along sideways suits me fine. Looking forward we need to digest the huge increase in oil prices and the middle east issues. A lot for the equity market to chew, IMHO.

Mwsinron · 07-29-2006, 09:12 PM

Whats to digest about the middle east? Its always a cesspool of violence and unpredictability. You might be right about oil though. But last I heard Americans were using more oil rather than cutting back. So it appears that prices arent really bothering people.

Brat · 07-29-2006, 09:36 PM

It's the middle east issues that brought us 9/11, hence Iraq and the huge costs there. Lighting up the oil depots there is easy, with a huge impact on energy costs is the developed world. That risk gives Russia leverage. need I continue?

Mwsinron · 07-29-2006, 10:07 PM

Well you can continue if you like. However the fact remains the Middle East has always been a big pot of trouble. The market has always figured it into the equation. Im a bit more worried about an Asian blow up of some kind myself.

wabmester · 07-29-2006, 10:54 PM

C'mon.* You guys call yourselves bears?

We all know that bad things come in threes, right?

1) Housing crash (consumer spending drys up, millions in housing-related sectors lose their jobs, we kick off a 20-year long recession)

2) Temperatures continue to hit new records (nation-wide drought, food and energy prices skyrocket, rolling blackouts everywhere)

3) And then China takes back Taiwan!* (our troups will still be tied up in Iraq, consumer electronics and green tea prices skyrocket!)

Heh.* *And I didn't even need to use my peak-oil or bird-flu cards.*

dmpi · 07-29-2006, 10:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spanky

Bullish on technolgy and financial sectors?

I'm neutral on Tech at current level. Need to see a increase in IT spending. Companies got the money for it, but theres no payoff to expand or upgrade right now.

I'm mild Bullish on Financials. I-Rate will stablilze. Help keep the loan default rate under control. I see CC balances going down as people catch up & pay off loans.